Wow

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'ve been enjoying the ROTW and have utilized it to bolster my handicapping or confirm my numbers and selection. But for the first time, I\'m delving into the statistics that are included. When I bought tgraph in the Early Nineties these things weren\'t here. And when I\'ve reviewed the ROTW here, I\'ve looked primarily at the figure or TGraphs call of wide.

I just found the \"Thoro Pattern\" and though I\'ve been aware of Tops, Pairs, Offs and X\'s, this is an interesting application of form, all statistically based.

I\'m also taken aback by the Jockey paths. I\'m familiar with ROI issues. But the average path is very interesting. Its close for some but theres variances that make for some thought.

Another jockey issue I\'ve been deliberating for instance is Albarado going with Storm Surge after winning on Biloxi. One reason I contemplated was that Stewart is a local trainer and that Albarado is gonna stay in good graces with him if he stays with the horse. The Tgraph info confirms Albarado is very fond of the Fairgrounds and Stewart has signifcantly more starters there than Peitz. Which is not to say that Albarado doesnt\' consider Storm the better horse.

I\'m still trying to figure out the easiest way to use the expansive \"RUNS BASED\" index. I guess its to look for good big numbers TOP/PAIR in the column and then figure out if the entry is in that category today. Or to do the opposite. Look for bad big numbers in X/OFF and figure out if the horse is in that category today.

TGJB caught me on the breeding and as marginally important as it is, I\'m pretty good at it. I\'ll have to keep this in mind for where its significance increases. In the Lecomte its 2 to 3 yr old improvement of course.

Later... I just realized TGraph has highligted certain \"RUNS BASED\" percentages. I have some questions specifically as they apply to Storm Surge in the Lecomte:

-One of Stewarts weakest categories appears to be \"Dec 2 yr old year to Feb\"  40% of his starters X there, why isn\'t this number highlighted? This is a 3yr old January start.

-Why is \"3rd Race Off Layoff\" highlighted, this is the fourth race. Same for \"2nd race off layoff\"

Am I seeing highlighting that doesnt exist?

Very Interesting Data

CtC



Post Edited (01-13-05 23:34)

[TGAB]

On the Introduction page, the introductory sheets and trainer profiles downloads includes average tables for the run-based and figure-based trainer profiles. The run-based table shows category averages for 5 years--1/1/99--12/31/03. The figure-based table shows category averages for 6 years--1/1/98--12/31/03. Both are soon to be updated to include 2004 data and exclude the oldest year.

These profile average tables are the standards by which good and bad categories can be judged for individual trainers. Strengths are emboldened, and weaknesses are italicized. Plain type figures fall into the range of average performance.  

As regards Storm Surge, the categories you cite are not run-based but instead figure-based percentages. The 2nd and 3rd off layoff categories show up regardless of a specific horse\'s situation. Stewart gets tops at a 27% rate 3rd off the layoff. For all trainers, the tops average is 14.7%. Stewart is very good in this spot which is why the figure is emboldened.

As to date category, this varies by time of year, surface and age and frankly since it switches every month there\'s just too many categories so we provide snapshots for the individual trainer specific to the horse in question. We\'ll let you decide here what\'s good and what\'s bad.

[Saddlecloth]

I was going to post this after the free week of the product in december but never got around to it.  Figures are all pretty debateable amongst services, sometimes one is better then the other, but IMO the trainer stats and other stats are superior to any product I have seen.

using an example,

there was a horse making his second start off a layoff, both were routes, and the horse was adding blinkers.  now if you use the forms stats the blinker addition was like 10% win for the trainer, but using the Tgraph stats I notices the trainers horses improved their figures 75% of the time when adding the blinkers.  why he was not winning tells be the were not properly spotted.  also the trainer had high numbers second route layoff.  all in all the horse went off at 6/1 and I played it and cashed.  never would have without the stats.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

thank you alan, it was late and I know the product and didn\'t review the basics.

Later ...are saying that on the monthly snapshots you dont bother with a heads up on probability?...i guess thats it.

I\'d make a suggestion and it may not be possible with the software to easily implement it. But I think the \"Runs Based\" highlighting and Italicizing should be done on those categories pertaining to the conditions the horse is entered in for the race day in question. I don\'t see how 2nd off layoff is relevent when its his fifth race for instance.

thx



Post Edited (01-15-05 23:15)