Suspicious Differences

[Josephus]

RE; MIFF

I\'m not sure about the point Miff is making.  I haven\'t seen all the results for the horses he mentioned but: CAJUN BEAT won a fast turf sprint, MIDAS EYES ran good in the Gen George, SILVER TREESjust ran a good 2nd in Fla, BETTER TALK NOW was right there and very wide for the Hol. stake ( Iwas lucky enough to use PELLIGRINO as my key because of the odds and jockey comment that they would try and save ground).  The TG BC figs do not look out of line to me at all.

[TGJB]

Miff--

Your right, it\'s clear. Some of the horses, that ran in some of the BC races, ran figures that might or might not have been better than the races that they ran on BC day, when they ran back the next time. This, of course, is independent of whether the races they ran on BC day were typical of them (My Cousin Matt?). And that therefore I should go back and add to the whole day.

I\'ll get right on it. How many points would you like? Do you want the same for dirt as grass?

[miff]

Your sarcasim only confirms to me how far off your figs were in that B/C sprint.How about a more scientific/reasonable explanation when you are challanged, for a change.

[TGJB]

When you ask a scientific/reasonable question, clearly, I\'ll give you an answer.

[gowand]

miff,  Just to touch on a point made by chuckles.  When you have all trainers pointing to a breeder\'s cup race and presumably winding up thier horses wouldn\'t you usually expect some to be over the top in thier next start?  This would seem to be especially true from a large sprint field where many of these horses may be used more aggressively than usual to get position in a big field.  If this is not the case why do so many trainers put thier horses on the farm after the cup?

[miff]

Gowand, I totally agree if they ran an \"effort\". Many raced back, IMO, becasuse there connections felt were NOT spent in the BC.

[TGJB]

All right, look-- I\'m not going to let you clutter up my board with this not-thought-out nonsense when I\'ve got important stuff I want people to see. The BC numbers are still up on this site-- look at them and figure out what changes you would make, keeping in mind you have to add or subtract the same amount from every horse in the race. If after you do that and think out your position you think you can express it clearly, do it in a few days when the other stuff has died down.

[Michael D.]

guys, i think we need a lot more info before we know how well any figure maker\'s BC sprint #\'s will hold up. there are times in the past when i have questioned the figs for a particular race, and then looked back in six months and realized the figs were a lot more accurate than they appeared after just three or four weeks................ these BC replays are tough. just figuring out which horse is which is a battle. i think i am making some progress though.



Post Edited (12-08-04 14:56)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Silver Charm wrote:

> Our Terminator dogs have been barking wildly since you first
> showed up.

lol

You can never fool the Terminator dogs

[TGJB]

I\'ve been in contact with SoCalMan off board, and he is not a Raggie plant (if he was he wouldn\'t have set up Ragozin to look bad, either). I hope he posts saying where he is-- it\'s more interesting than the BC. TG goes international.

Michael D.-- yeah, those replays are a pain in the butt, that\'s why I didn\'t want to have to go check. Let me know.

[SoCalMan2]

I am not interested in getting in the middle of a war between the companies.  I am a fan of both companies and believe they are far ahead of anything else out there. I would never bet on a race that I cannot get sheets for (either from Thorograph or Ragozin). If I can, I like to get both sets of sheets and handicap each race twice.  I am not raising the discrepancies I have raised out of any sort of malice -- the problem I raised could have ended up being in the Thorograph figures.  When I posted, I did not know who was right and who was wrong.  I believe that healthy discourse on figure making is good for everybody and helps everybody who participates in such dialogs.  I also believed, as I have seen in the past, that TGJB would take the question seriously and get to the bottom of it even if it put the spotlight on a mistake of his own (remember, TGJB did not respond terribly enthusiastically to my initial post).  Also, I have seen TGJB admit on this board before when there were mistakes in his figures (I recall a northern California maiden claimer running some out of sight figure and then TGJB mea culping (if you can use that as a verb) that somebody had subtracted a variant instead of adding it).  While still trying to maintain my anonymity, anybody who would like to meet me can usually find me at the bookmakerskaya in the Metellitsa Cherry Casino on the Novy Arbat on the evenings they are offering the first three races from Philadelphia Park.  It will be obvious which guy is me (and if for some reason it is not, just ask the manager to point out his only American customer).  FYI, this is a great place to bet on the Breeders Cup because they use English odds and allow you the option fixirovat (meaning you can bet at the odds they are offering at a particular moment and lock them in rather than accepting the post time odds).  I was able to lock in 7-2 on Ashado at 5 minutes to post and 4-1 on Ghostzapper around the same point (although it was not even necessary as that was his off odds here -- Ashado did fall to 3-1 at post).  Just so that I am not accused of unfairly redboarding, on the same day, I locked in a lot of other more tasty odds that I ended up not cashing (the ones that particular come to mind are the 13-2 I was able to get on Midas Eyes and, ironically enough, the 25-1 I was able to lock in on Moscow Burning).

[SoCalMan2]

By the way, Breeders Cup replays are available for free on www.ntra.com  I do not know what the quality is and whether they are user friendly or not.