pat day and azeri

[Michael D.]

 Day was a bit loose on the reigns the entire way, as much so as any other jock who had ridden her in the past (trust me on that, or watch her past races). your only position could be that day should have ridden her along early, something that had never been done before. so your position is that if azeri was ridden along early, she would have been on the lead, and she might have run a strong final furlong (we disagree strongly on that). i would understad if day was strangling her, but that simply wasn\'t the case...if anything, blame the lucas/paulson strategy..... and CtC, this will be clear as day if azeri ever comes back and runs a 10f race.

[Michael D.]

and CtC, i share your view that when some horses are taken out of their game, it\'s lights out. i saw nothing that pat day did, however, that should have taken her out of her game.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

She was already dealing with a big effort 20 days prior and she broke a half step slow. That probably sealed her fate. Pat can get patient even when he shouldn\'t. Thats his problem. She needed to still be ridden aggressively to have a chance. I\'d have preferred Cordero on her for the race. I\'d concede the weight.



Post Edited (12-02-04 19:36)

[Michael D.]

i watched the replay a bunch of times, and did not see Day rating the horse any more than the horse had been rated in the past. there is really nothing more i can say here. let\'s just say we disagree here. if she runs 10f again, however, and she is on the lead, you are going to lose this one in a big way, because she will never go out fast in a 10f race, and finish up strong.

CTC,

>I don\'t think Roses busted a 3 point top on a negotiated \"hold\". <

IMO, you are almost certainly wrong on this point. RIM ran a spectacular race at Saratoga. That was a brutally competitive pace performance early. Had the pace been even close to honest RIM would have beaten Perfect Drift by a very clear margin that day. I don\'t care what the final figure was that or on BC day, his BC performance was simply a return to that excellent level. I made that point about the Saratoga race multiple times prior to the BC and several people agreed.

If Azeri tried to run with RIM, she may have hurt his chances, but she would have finished last.

[jimbo66]

CtC,

You are selectively using \"pace\" to help you in certain arguments and then ignoring it in other situations.  At least JB is consistent in his vies on pace impacting figures.  

What I mean is that you are saying that the RIM figure in the BC was aided by racing close to a slow pace, thus he didn\'t run as fast as the figure suggests.

But, as CH points out, what about the Whitney.  That pace was absolutely BRUTAL and you give RIM no extra credit for being \"on\" that pace.

JB has ignored both pace scenarios (I think) in giving the figures in those races.  You are weighting the BC against RIM but not giving credit for the Whitney pace problem.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

jimbo66 wrote:

> CtC,
>
> What I mean is that you are saying that the RIM figure in the
> BC was aided by racing close to a slow pace, thus he didn\'t run
> as fast as the figure suggests.
>

I\'m suggesting or postulating that the figure for the B.C. Classic may be inaccurate to a certain degree. I fully realize I could be wrong in that theory. I\'ve been wrong many times before when I\'ve taken such a position.

I really don\'t want to get into an analysis of the Whitney. I\'d have to break the days full card down and I don\'t want to do that. I will state its pretty obvious that  Perfect Dread lacks the killer instinct this year. Perfect Dread also ran the fastest raw time splits in the Whitney he ever ran and the early pacesetter was \"Yessirgeneralsir\". I\'ll leave it at that. (I\'m fully aware of Bwana Charlies 1:09:2 in the sprint.)

What if the B.C. Classic was figured about 2 full points too fast? What if the track in drying became faster than some may have thought. If the winner ran closer to negative 2 and Azeri\'s best was about negative 1.5. how far from a competitive showing was she? How much more competitive would she have been on form and winging on the lead? And when you contemplate that question, contemplate it upon that track on that day, at that time.

I want to say something here. TGJB is the only figure man that holds the opinion that a racetrack is a living breathing thing. I am of the same opinion.

CtC

[Michael D.]

CtC,
just separate your \"on form\" theory from pat day\'s ride, and i think your argument makes a bit more sense. if day rides her along early, she collapses, you have enough knowledge of this game to understand that. shift your focus to the lucas/paulson stategy, maybe they took some speed out of her in the mornings? stop blaming this on day, with the bad break, she was not getting the lead without being used rather hard, and azeri had never been used hard early. it\'s rather preposterous to assume she would have finished with a lot of energy in that scenerio.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Michael D. wrote:

> CtC,
 if day rides her
> along early, she collapses,

Circumstances tend to indicate it wasn\'t Azeri\'s day, regardless of Pat Day. Thats not the issue. I\'ve never held Azeri in the same awe others have. Her mere entry in the Classic was an error. What did Paulson/Lukas see in the Met Mile that filled them with optimism? But, I believe the Classic was a slower race than others believe and that a large percentage of the horses failed to fire. (Wide was definitely not the place to be on that track and I believe there was more to it than mere wide.) On her best day with her best style Azeri had a chance, not the way she was ridden though.

What shift your focus to the lucas/paulson
> stategy, maybe they took some speed out of her in the mornings?

You dance with what brung ya.


> stop blaming this on day, with the bad break, she was not
> getting the lead without being used rather hard

Whose job is it to have the horse ready for the break? She needed to be used.

Anyway, enough of this topic. Past races need to be scrutinized for one reason: Future Races.

CtC

[Michael D.]

ok, it\'s day\'s fault because she broke bad. is there any evidence that day can\'t get a horse out of gate? again, probably not smart to blame day for that either. you are digging yourself deeper and deeper into a losing hole. it\'s best you drop it.

[jimbo66]

CtC,

I guess I am not making my point.  Well, it won\'t be the first time.  Anyway, last chance for me, then I move on.

If you think the Classic might have been two points too fast BECAUSE of the pace, it is also likely that the Whitney was a few points too slow because of the pace.  If you are going to factor pace in, then do it all the time.  

I agree with you on pace in general.  I also was at least as impressed with RIM\'s Whitney than I was with the horse\'s Classic, because of the pace factor.  

But I do disagree with you that GZ needs things his own way.  He closes in sprints, stalks in fast paced routes, and goes to the front in routes when the pace is tepid.  I call that tractable and Jerry\'s figures point him out as a very serious race horse.

[Michael D.]

yea jimbo, i also see GZ as a the real deal. up to 9f, i think he might be as fast or faster than any horse in the history of the game. his BC win was over a very slick surface however, so i think the jury is still out on the 10f distance.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m doing a good job of breaking promises to discontinue threads. But after this post, I promise I\'m done in this thread.

First of all, the reason I am at this site is because I have the GREATEST regard for the type of work that TGraph does. Its Jerry for the most part. I have a sense of his acumen and nine times out of ten when I\'ve bucked his work I\'ve gotten burned. I don\'t follow it day to day. I watch from a Grade I perspective to determine how big he says an effort is. I pay close attention whenever theres doubt between figure makers, if you don\'t give TGraph the benefit of the doubt, you\'re just not in tune with how figures are validated. Knowing how fast a horse ran is of course only one part of puzzle and TGJB excels in that endeavor. I do however have great reservations about Lone Star Park and the Classic. Though, I have more work to do upon it yet. In this game certainty is very elusive even ex post facto. But assuming I\'m wrong again, I\'ll say so when I can tell. To my mind, theres a host of post race factors being revealed which need to be considered in determining just what kind of race the Breeders Cup Classic was.

Wide is never a good place to be, but I think it possible that by the time the Classic was run a double bias existed at Lone Star on Breeders Cup Day. Pace was certainly a factor in that. Thats my theory. With the exception of Kela, anything wide died in the dirt. being near rail and out front was certainly the place to be by the ninth race. I certainly know that its always good to have tactical speed and save ground, but like I said, I think it was more than that.

You know why I haven\'t put this down? It\'s because you have a trainer that admittedly has a horse with significant ability, but he\'s cheating with this horse and thats not the extent of it. Cheating isn\'t good enough for him, he also has to negotiate a pace scenario with his main rival. A couple bad breaks and wide turns and POOF, the juiced horse has no pace issue to deal with and the world thinks he\'s a super horse. Well, we\'ll see about that. When I call the race where GZ goes down, maybe TGJB can change my moniker for me. I\'m thinking something tantamount to \"Chuckles the Magnificent Clown\". If I\'m wrong Jerry can change it to \"Chuckles the Once Again Ever So Much More Humble Clown\".



CtC