ROCKPORT HARBOR

[Michael D.]

jim,
i use a lot of figures, i\'m just saying that LT was not \"too slow\" to have a chance on some that i looked at. i missed it because i though PC was ready for one of his big ones, but he is an iffy horse. i missed the race because i read the patterns wrong, and a great trainer wound the s..t out of a fast horse and took it all.

Michael,

I guess I am not being clear because we seem to be miscommunicating.

1. I do not think his race prior to the Cigar was fast enough to beat Pico Central on his best day. Jerry doesn\'t think so. Beyer doesn\'t think so. Logic Dictates doesn\'t think so. Pacefigures doesn\'t think so. My own analysis suggests that all those guys are right. So if someone has that race faster, I believe it was in error despite the result.    

2. I think that horses like Purge and Badge of Silver (who were similarly fast and IMO more likely to move forward) would/should be given an edge under typcial circumstances because their style lends itself to losing less ground. LT is a closer.

3. I thought there was decent probability of fast pace yesterday that could/would neutralize the speed figure advantages of some of those better horses. (at least the secondary speeds)

4. I think the pace and development of the race enabled LT to win even though IMHO he was not the best horse. IMO under honest pace circumstances, BOS would have won, Pico Central would have finished second, and LT would have been 3rd.

5. I do not know what speed figure Jerry, Rags, Beyer, Logic, or Pacefigures will give LT for that performance. What I do know is that some of them tend to look at pace when interpreting results and some do not. So it is possible we will see very different figures from them depending on personal beliefs. No matter what figures they assign, IMO he was still 3rd best. This is an example of the kind of thing I talk about  when I say I use pace to analyze results and figure out who really ran best.  

6. If I were interpreting this single result I would assign LT a figure similar to his last race. I would give everyone else a figure slower than they have been running because their participation in the duel hurt them or because getting outrun by faster speed horses hurt them.

7. I don\'t see LT winning as vindication for someone who had his last race as faster than PICO Central. If anything, if he was really faster than them he would have won off by 5 or more lengths because he had everything his own way. IMO, the rest of them ran slower final times because they were used so hard early. He should have killed them if he was really faster.

I don\'t think the figures that come out of this race will vindicate anyone (including me) because everyone has their own opinion about how to interpret results and make figures.

IMHO, this result was fairly easy to understand after the race because it didn\'t develop much differently than I thought was possible before the race. I thought the pace would be fast and Pico Central would put away the other speeds away and hold off Lion Tamer. Pico was not as sharp as I thought. He wasn\'t nearly as good as BOS.

Jimbo,

I discussed the probable pace scenario in the Cigar thread before the race.  

If you read my post, I did not think a pace meltdown was certain. I thought a fast pace was likely. When there are this many speeds and pressers, the pace is usually very competitive. IMO, this one was competitive enough to impact the result.

I thought Purge \"might\" try to stalk, but I didn\'t like him for other reasons and there was no certainty he would not participate.  

I didn\'t think LT would win. I thought Pico Central would put away the other speeds and that would allow LT to suck up for second.

I\'m just discussing the result so that when these horses run again I will understand how well they actually ran vs. their speed figures.



Post Edited (11-28-04 20:25)

Michael,

>i use a lot of figures, i\'m just saying that LT was not \"too slow\" to have a chance on some that i looked at. <

Then we agree. I was going to key on him (mostly for second) if I got involved. You can read that in the Cigar thread prior to the race.

[Michael D.]

the TG guys didn\'t like him (correct last week, wrong this week, no problem), but looking at their figs now, given that kela was out, and PC (an iffy horse to begim with) was laying 8 lbs to LT, and LT just ran a negative \"1.75\" closing in a 7f race, i think he was a contender on TG. ClassH, i will make a deal with you: i will go back and consider the possibility that a horse too slow to win won the race because of the pace scenerio, if you go back and consider the fact that pletcher really wound up a fast, underrated horse that would have won the race under any conditions. i understand pace pretty well (see my fall hweight play on the other guys toy), if i come to the conclusion that i am wrong, i will admit it.



Post Edited (11-28-04 20:27)

Michael,

> will make a deal with you: i will go back and consider the possibility that a horse too slow to win won the race because of the pace scenerio, if you go back and consider the fact that pletcher really wound up a fast, underrated horse that would have won the race under any conditions.<

:-)

I can\'t change what I think about the result. I don\'t expect you to either.  Perhaps we will get some more evidence as the horses continue running, but I doubt that. BOS is a semi-cripple and Pico is probably done for the year. If LT keeps running I would expect he\'d beat up on the winter horses.

I would not be suprised to see Jerry agree with you and give him a new top because he tends to discount pace. Have a nice night.
:-)



Post Edited (11-28-04 20:38)

[Michael D.]

OK Class, always nice discussing racing with you. i don\'t bother with the aqu inner track or the other winter tracks. i take a break from racing during december, so i will speak to you when GP opens. the new surfaces are getting great reviews, should be great racing.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I did not see the races Saturday, but I think Rockport caught a glib track. I\'m not altogether sure its as easy to figure the two turn races Saturday though. He also felt the sting of injury and raced through it, so I count that in his favor. They came home a little slow, but lets face it, they are two year olds. (I think Smarty threw a Zed as a two year old if I\'m not mistaken) Long way to go, but he did what he had to do and Galloping Grocer is not a bad colt either. Great Race.

In defense of Purge I would like to say theres some data suggesting he 0-2-x\'d. He ran some bang up races as a 3 yr old and he ran some dudes too. He may not be up to Grade I older horses, but he fires or he doesnt. I don\'t think he fired Saturday, but admit that four mark duel with Pico was certainly part of it.

After analyzing the charts I\'m more and more impressed with Pico\'s game third. Heckuva race.


CtC



Post Edited (11-29-04 01:29)

[TGJB]

One of the problems with the discussions of 3yo crops is that they always center on the ones that ran in the TC or summer 3yo races, and those horses almost never stick around long enough to do well against their elders (VG and Skip Away being among the few exceptions). Or, to put it another way-- how were Pico, GZ et all viewed at this point as 3yo\'s?

What we do here is try to measure ability, not accomplishment-- we are looking for overlays both in buying and betting. That does not mean a horse who ran fast will necessarily keep running fast, any more than winning a G1 means a horse will win another one.

TGJB,

>What we do here is try to measure ability, not accomplishment-- we are looking for overlays both in buying and betting. <

I agree that that should be the goal.

It\'s just that some of us think that running fast against weaker competition is not as good as running fast against excellent competition. We like to see some non-speed figure verification of quality.

IMO, the best ways to verify 3YO quality are to see how easily lightly raced allowance horses move up to the top of the class after impressive and fast wins, how dominant the better 3YO horses are and how fast they run when they take an easy race against a much weaker group, and how they all do against older horses.

Some of the better 3YOs actually still have conditions well into the year.

By this standard, even if a member or two of a crop has been running fast, that does not mean they are as good as horses earning similar figures in races loaded with average multiple grade I winning older horses that are sharp.

No one from this crop has progressed much from the spring or developed late. Perhaps they were OK for springtime 3YOs, but they weren\'t that good. Their efforts against older horses have demonstrated that. No one that I know of ran real well against older horses despite the fact that some of them had contending speed figures or were coming off sharp races against their own kind. (Cliff\'s edge had a 2nd against second string older horses at best) It\'s just an observation about what Smarty might have been beating in the spring.



Post Edited (11-29-04 15:11)

[TGJB]

By those standards Secretariat and Seattle Slew weren\'t much as 3yos-- the former lost twice to run of the mill older horses, the latter never raced against them as a 3yo, and I would be surprised if any of the 3yos behind him made a dent. The horses Secretariat beat didn\'t amount to squat against older horses AS 3YOS-- one of them turned out to be okay later, horse named Forego.

Point being-- the ones from this crop who will be good older horses haven\'t revealed themselves yet.

TGJB,

If you think figure handicapping can be somewhat subjective, class handicapping is ridiculous by comparison. You\'d definitely have to bar me from the board. :-)

Personally, I thought Seattle Slew\'s crop was dreadful and I am a VERY HUGE fan of his.  In his defense, even though his competition as a 3YO stunk, (Cormorant was OK and I think Silver Series, Jatski and JO Tobin weren\'t too bad later on) he was tons the best of them. He had a horrible start in the Derby then he dueled (a horror show of a trip) and then he dueled again in the Preakness and kept beating them.  I think he got way better at 4. I thought Forego probably would have beaten the springtime 3YO Seattle Slew weight for age.

Do you remember what kind of numbers he was running as a 4YO?  My figures were pretty bad in those days. It\'s a good thing I was a classhandicapper. ;-)

This brings back some great memories for me. I was a hotwalker at Aqueduct for David Sazer (remember him?) that summer. It\'s the only job I ever had in my life that I truly enjoyed (this computer programming crap for corporate America blows). I used to sneak into the vans to Belmont with the horses to catch the double and then sneak back for feeding time. :-)
Mark Casse worked in the barn at that time (he was a teenager like me). His father (Norm) had horses with Sazer.

I am less familiar with Big Red\'s crop, but he was also tons the best. Losing to Onion on a dead rail (according to Davidowitz)isn\'t a disgrace when you beat Riva Ridge and then wipe out the best turfers.

I agree with you about late development stuff. Maybe someone will get better next year.



Post Edited (11-29-04 16:41)

[TGJB]

I wasn\'t making figures back then, or even through Bid\'s 4yo year-- I left Ragozin in the Spring of 80, between Genuine Risk and Codex, and didn\'t start making \"hard\" numbers until 1/1/82 (the first day was about an 8 point slide in the snow at Aqu-- welcome to figure making). On Ragozin Slew had a 7 top as a 3yo (I think), and ran a negative 2 as a 4yo. I now think those figures were distorted due to 1 and 2 turn splits-- the 4yo figure was the 1 turn route at Belmont.