Full Serrano

[jerry]

Hate to sound bitter but I’m sitting on 6 pick 5’s and 6 pick 4’s going into the last race and that happens.

[P-Dub]

jerry Wrote:
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> Hate to sound bitter but I’m sitting on 6 pick
> 5’s and 6 pick 4’s going into the last race
> and that happens.


That Pick 4 was one of the few tickets I cashed all day

[Molesap]

I used the 7-8-9 and was just alive for DD, but thought there was too much speed in the race for that horse. Clocker Andy Harrington gave him not only one rare A- workout, but two. I did not use. To be fair, DRF just gave him solid B\'s. Just like figures, sometimes people see it differently.

[P-Dub]

\"this is going to be a mess\"..., \"with tremendous ground loss differentials, like 3-4 points worth\"........\"This will be chaos, and the race could completely collapse\".......

When I read this the numbers aren\'t as important

He raced at Del Mar twice, 1st and 2nd

Ran at this distance 7 times with 4 wins and 3 seconds

5 workouts last 30 days working every 6-7 days, 3 of them bullets including a 58 and 4 5F work 4 days ago

He likes the track, distance, and working up a storm. Several clockers liked the way he was working.

Great post position and I had to use him along with the 1-8-9

[Molesap]

Nice pickup - I missed that.

[jerry]

I’ve come to discount good works. Bad works tell me the horse is not on his A game. Good works tell me the horse is on his A game. The question is how good is his A game? Even with improvement he didn’t figure. Not on paper anyway. Not to me. I still wouldn’t bet him.

As far as the race being chaotic, I thought it was run pretty cleanly. Full Serrano just outran them all.

[P-Dub]

I mentioned several reasons I bet him

Works was just one part of it.

As far as being on his A game, the seminar comments clearly pointed to several horses that were not going to run their A game.  So whatever his A game was, it was possible that it was going to be good enough.

Chaos doesn\'t mean its a demolition derby full of trouble.

It implies that the results will not be what you think they will be if you go strictly by numbers.

[jerry]

I still don’t see him winning. He came in slower than every other horse in the race. How you handicap that into a winner is something you understand and I never will.

The only way I can rationalize it is a soft pace. In as much as JB said there’s a lot of pace in the race it didn’t show up. A half in 45 and change was pretty easy over that track.

I will concede that is a pretty eye popping work tab.

[P-Dub]

If you have an inside post with speed to hold your position, and others are out wide with a short run to the turn……….. you don’t need the fastest numbers.

Likes the track, distance, and working great.

Never said I singled him, but I’m not leaving him off the ticket.

Again, our host said it was a chaos race….which often means the “fastest” horse won’t win

[P-Dub]

Go over every BC race and tell me how many were won by the fastest horse

If it were that easy they would all pay 4 bucks

There are things to consider other than the numbers

[Roman]

I didn\'t have him, I needed Post time. But with the trip FS got, saving ground behind the Japanese horse who figured to go to the front based on his race on the derby under card , Full Serano only needed to improve slightly with all the others having to lose substantial ground. Be interesting to see the final figures . Post position and trips weighted more this year than previous years, and I failed to weight it correctly in my handicapping. Using the Domestic Product and Skippylongstocking was foolish on my part with them being so far out in the gate.

Post 14 at a mile on dirt at Del Mar for me is now an exclusion zone like Chernobyl. Do it at your own risk.

Like Gulfstream Post 10 and out at 9 furlongs, very hard to win.

And Kentucky Downs shippers, avoid like the plague. I have come to the conclusion that the racing there takes a toll on a horse, with the surface and the facilities. No barns, rough ship, rough track.

Also a strange ride on Cogburn by Irad, kind of moved way early. Wonder what his thoughts are on that ride. Over confident?  Also got shut out.

Junior Alvarado gave Arthur\'s Ride a brutal trip. Went way wide in the first.
Next eased, which was disappointing but in retrospect not surprising.  While he earned some nice figures going longer, he did it against Who? And with slow paces to boot.

[jerry]

I understand that the fastest horse often doesn’t win but I felt pretty good watching Saudi Crown tuck in along the rail behind the speed. My guess is more than a few didn’t fire in this race. 13-1 seemed short on the winner. I’m guessing there was some buzz about him on the backstretch.

The good thing is we get to go back next year with this year’s results as a reminder.

[P-Dub]

jerry Wrote:
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> I understand that the fastest horse often
> doesn’t win but I felt pretty good watching
> Saudi Crown tuck in along the rail behind the
> speed. My guess is more than a few didn’t fire
> in this race. 13-1 seemed short on the winner.
> I’m guessing there was some buzz about him on
> the backstretch.
>
> The good thing is we get to go back next year with
> this year’s results as a reminder.

Jerry I also was live to the 1 and that worked too

Winner had a lot of buzz backstretch from his works.  I know this site is numbers oriented, so don\'t want to go too far down that rabbit hole.

365 days won\'t come soon enough, already having withdrawals.

I was watching the network telecast last night, my wife said didn\'t you get enough of that all weekend??

No, I did not

[johnnym]

Gary Young was all over him on the Byk show Friday.

[Boscar Obarra]

I thought the two most over hyped horses at BC were  City Of Troy, and Next .