2024 Kentucky Derby Seminar Review

[nicely nicely]

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUsjySoqG7xQfTr-fiafAXUFQqhwnsfl2

[Molesap]

Makes me feel a bit better keying the favorite. Excellent job on all three races.

[T Severini]

T Severini thought the Derby Seminar was outstanding. Seriously...the best that he\'s viewed. Excepting the Key, rated as a 50 percent chance, everything down the chart was spot on. Including the commentary upon the eventual winner. The group breakdowns were also about spot on.  The favorite went off at about 3-1 and but for an air jump looked like he got his trip albeit a couple paths wide. Of the three pace setters the Track Phantom ran a helluva early race and that compromised Fierceness chances. Just Steel retreated first and then in an epochal moment Fierceness threw in the towel. It is a new era in Kentucky!!!! Fierceness got close to the lead, but had to work to get there and was denied by the Track Phantom! Of the three early battlers, Track Phantom was the most game. Just Steel was a bit of a surprise being that tight early, but he paid for it and so did Fierceness. Salute to the Track Barron!!!

What made the race was the bold ride Hernandez gave the winner. He saved lots ground and made that strong rail move budging the Track Barron off his path. That move had one thinking of bygone era rail rides. Mystic Dan moved through like a Bull and withstood a determined charge. Seen some close finishes but in the Derby that was one for the ages.

[jerry]

Yep. JB was spot on with MYSTIK DAN. Very astute handicapping. It was the value play in the race. Kudos to him.

Can’t wait to see the final numbers. I’m guessing SIERRA LEONE ran a new top. Maybe a big new top if MYSTIC DAN paired his top.

[TGJB]

Both SL and FY had tops around the one level and finished together, MD saved ground, so if the other two ran back to their tops he has to get worse than a 1.

The big takeaway (again) is that most don’t run their race in the Derby. Everybody is talking about Fierceness, but he finished ahead of Lukas, and JAT ran last.

We’ll post the day later this week when it’s done.

[Tavasco]

TGJB you probably watched the video DRF had on their site in which Andrew Beyer and Brad Free share their opinions on the Derby. While Mr. Beyer is difficult to listen to He Liked Fierceness and hates TAP in the race. He seemed to be very conflicted.

The one thing he was certain of was he liked the top two from the Bluegrass but in reverse order. He thought the Bluegrass pace was biased against the Cox runner while making it easy for Sierra Leone to run by spent competitors.

He was in doubt about the Japanese Entries and the best reason he could come up with was their previous Derby record. It seems making numbers for foreign races is outside of his bubble. He just assumed, like most, that the second Japanese entry was inferior. I couldn\'t help it Sat when Mystic Dan blew up my super bets that the inferior 2nd Japanese entry contributed to a $300k fabulous five vertical payout.

I appreciate how difficult it is to handicap the Derby, especially in recent years. I am grateful and appreciate your effort to do so. I am happy to see that one of your contentious horses won this year and some of the TG Degenerates may have also.

For just a detail here or there in the running of the race, we would have had a Japanese-bred winner!

[jerry]

Interesting. So MD actually ran an off race and not back to his top. The final time was slow but I have no idea what the track variant was. Looking forward to those final numbers. Thanks.