2024 3 Year Old Crop

[Roman]

Outside of Nysos, and Fierceness\'s fig in the BC Juvenile, not many horses have recorded any solid numbers yet on the way to the derby.

[ajkreider]

What counts as a solid number this time of year?

[Roman]

I would say a TG 3 or lower, would of liked to see more 3yo colts have run a 4 or lower with one prep to go, since it usually takes about a 0 or better to win, horses that have been running in the 6-7 range in there second to last prep need a bigger jump up in figures, so to have a nice 1-2 point increase in every prep, time is running out. Now they will have a big jump in there figure in there last prep, and increasing the chance of a bounce in the derby, and since most horses do not run tops in the derby , might be only a few colts that would be serious contenders for the roses based on there figure pattern.

[apindy62]

Speak Easy ran a 4 on Pegasus day in his debut and Victory Avenue ran a 5 in same race. Interested in both going forward.

[Roman]

Running Saturday in FOY, looks like it will be a salty field.

[apindy62]

Absolutely a tough race, derby winner may well be running in this FOY..

[toppled]

I bet a Preakness future on Nysos in the pool that starts today. If he makes it to the gate he\'ll be an unbettable 1/2 on Preakness day plus there are 40 betting interests in this pool, a lot more than will be in the gate.

[Roman]

6/1 is the best price you will ever get on this horse.

[toppled]

I\'ll take anything over 2/1. I think he towers over this group & the only risk is he doesn\'t stay sound for 2.5 months.

The only future I\'ve ever cashed was on American Pharoah in the Derby at 8/1.  I thought he towered over his crop & waited to bet him until the late February pool after he went back in training.

[toppled]

I haven\'t been able to find any more data yet. I cancelled my Preakness future bet & if there\'s a good reason & it\'s non-injury, I will re-bet it, but I can\'t until I get more info.  If the deadline passes & I can\'t bet it, that\'s OK.

[toppled]

https://www.drf.com/news/nysos-scratches-san-felipe-will-await-santa-anita-derby

It looks like he\'s OK and is waiting for the Santa Anita Derby.