Stop The Insanity

[TGJB]

Someone called me because they couldn’t believe the numbers they got from Jake for two horse, asked us to check the last figure on each.

On Jakeâ€" Hoist the Gold 6, Conglomerate 7


On Beyerâ€" Hoist The Gold 109, Conglomerate 93

On TGâ€" Hoist the Gold NEGATIVE 4, Conglomerate 6.

They charge for that stuff.

[Gary Irish]

Hello Jerry

A good friend who is a decades long Ragozin user is questioning the numbers as well. He is a very sharp handicapper who has been trying your product and comparing results.

I have not noticed a decline in the accuracy of the numbers, but I\'m not sophisticated in that area. I go by the results - how they run.

I\'m happy where I\'m at with Ragozin but try to keep an open mind.

I\'ll try for a joke - If you had rifles, would you mock the Indians bow and arrows?

The game is still pari-mutuel.

[TGJB]

The right analogy is someone trying to make money selling defective weapons. Like selling a bow and arrow (a broken one) and claiming it’s a rifle.

How would you “notice a decline in the accuracy of the numbers”? Assuming I was given the right information, do the Jake figures for those two horses look “accurate” to you?

Just to give you a sense of what this means, as a practical matterâ€" Conglomorate had a good trip. Others in that race did not, and if you’re using ground loss (as both “rifles” do) those horses earned better figures than the winner did. Meaning also-rans in the Valedictory ran as well or better than the runaway winner of the Cigar Mile did, on “bows and arrows”.

Does that make any sense to you? Do you think it’s “accurate”?

By the wayâ€" as those out there who have made their own figures can tell you, it’s always possible to blow a variant for an individual race with a field of lightly raced horses (that’s why we sometimes leave boxes). But these two races had a) large fields, of b) stake horsesâ€" figure makers had tons of data to work with. Which makes errors of this magnitude almost impossible to comprehend. You would almost certainly have to have the two circuits completely out of whack with each other (by a lot) to get there. And if you can make mistakes like that, with that much data to work with, what happens when you don’t have it?

Againâ€" on TG the difference between the two figures is 10 points. On Jake it’s one point. That 9 point error is worth 15 lengths at a mile.

[Roman]

No need to assume, those are the figures the other guys posted. A 6 and a 7.

[Gary Irish]

Thanks for your reply. Thoughtful as usual.

I cannot argue your points, they may be correct. I play the sheets as they are written and wouldn\'t look twice if I lose.

If I lose enough I might look at the product, but I mostly look in the mirror.

I respect your product and like you.

Who knows what tomorrow will bring?

[Roman]

GI, do you use traditional past performances when you use the Sheets? I find it very difficult to use there sheets, For some reason they are very difficult for me to read, which I find hard to believe due to there simplicity.

[Gary Irish]

Hello Roman

I use the Daily Racing Program - travel to Hawthorne to get it. It is mostly a DRF product, sans Beyers. A drawback is just 7 running lines, and sometimes as few as 5, as often happens with Woodbine.

The attraction for me is their pace ratings, which have benefitted me unlike any I have used before.

I still like to see the traditional DRF with the Beyers, as I think they influence wagering a lot.

[Roman]

Thanks Gary, Hawthorne my home track also, probably know some of the same people.
Your referring to the simulcasting program?

My dream product would be a combination of traditional past performances, with a preferred pace figure or figures, and speed figures, kind of like what Drf did when they started posting Beyer figs.

Don’t know why, but still prefer to print them all out, probably due to note making and math I do , but it gets to be a bit much if you want to bet a couple of tracks on the same day.

Like the charts TG & the sheets do, especially the gap between races, lot better than the pp’s line for a layoff, since most horses are coming off 5 weeks or more every race is followed by a line, prefer the gap on the chart or brisnet does days from start.

[jerry]

My question is why do you care about the accuracy of their numbers? If their numbers are crap keep letting their customers fill the pools with dumb money. It’s to TG players benefit. Leave it alone.

[Boscar Obarra]

How amazing is it that equibase is smart enough to put the days between on the pp line, but too dumb to put todays layoff just above it .    Are they trying to save the earth by reducing printout size ?

[Roman]

BO, that’s what I’m talking about, taking the best parts of all different pp’s and making one that would reduce all the paper.