Kentucky Derby becoming a negative key horse race

[Fairmount1]

PG2023,

I don\'t have the time to go review all 25 years of the TC prior to this year to see if this accurate or not.  I think to your point, the horses that only ran in all 3 legs might be the better ones to look at to make this point.  

I did go back and look at the 2000 Kentucky Derby.  There were 19 horses that year and four of them ran as 5yo\'s.  They were:  Hal\'s Hope, China Visit, Curule, and Graeme Hall.

These are the 5 that ran as 4yo\'s:  Trippi, Captain Steve, Aptitude, Deputy Warlock, and Exchange Rate.

So 9 of the 19 ran past 3 years old.  So the majority did not make it through their 4yo year as you assert about a 25 year sample of All TC runners.  Even if that is in fact true, let\'s say, I have a sincere question.  

Do you really think that adding time between the Derby and the Preakness and the Belmont will legitimately lead to longer racing careers of the TC types?  The method to even make it to the Derby is probably more likely the issue you should be interested in pursuing.  The spacing of the 2nd and 3rd leg are not in my opinion why these horses do not race longer.  The combination of how hard they are pressed to make the TC and the value of these horses that won shiny graded preps as stallions are more likely the reasons I see.  It is part of the backwards a$$ industry\'s approach to breeding.  Take them to stud, price \'em high, get a few years of huge money and if they don\'t pan out, move them to Turkey b/c they won the Wood Memorial or the SA Derby.  (B/c this is more valuable than continuing to race and chase purses).  

If you want to run the numbers on all the TC runners for 25 years, separate them out by Derby only, All the runners, The runners that ran in all 3 legs, and provide that exact data to make your point about the \"Spacing of the TC\" then I\'m all ears.  But until then, I\'m not buying that the 2 week and 3 week spacing is why horses can\'t make it to the races at 5yo.

[johnnym]

Foundation?
We don’t need no stinking foundation.

[Roman]

With Fiercness closing at 8-1 on the future wager today, I did a quick look back just from memory on how many BC Juvenile winners won the derby. Not many.Going to look at how the group of BC juvenile starters as a whole competed in the derby.
The BC juvenile is another race that is a negative key type race.

[Fairmount1]

Street Sense.
Nyquist.

[johnnym]

I feel more important angle.
A horse that ran a -# at 2

Pure figures wise the other Pletcher looks better.

FYI
Mage retired

[Roman]

Fierceness ran a better figure than White Abarrio.

[Roman]

The only two horses that have parlayed that race into the derby.
18 winners of the BC juvenile did not even start in the derby, that\'s 18 out of 40 races.

Good Magic 2018 derby, finished second, Timber Country 1995, & Chiefs Crown 1985 both finished third.

That is 2 wins, 3 got into the trifecta, and all the rest were fourth or worse that ran.