The never ending search for value

[Tavasco]

In a cursory review of Friday\'s 7/14 results we didn\'t have a notiiceable winner until Race #7 when #2 Bustin Shout who is trained by Bruce Levine and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche. Bustin Shout paid $20 to win. Only seven (7) horses started and Irad\'s mount went as the 6/5 favorite.

The card was atypical in the sense that IMO the weather and track conditions cause more horses to scratch than normally would. Turf races that come off the lawn often become very chalky as dirt-only entries draw in.

It is my opinion getting an overlaid price on a winner is a function of information, and generally a lack of meaningful information or the misinterpretations of available information.

If reviewing or studying the 1st six races is worthwhile I don\'t see it but I\'m open to hearing about it if someone differs. By the time we get to race #7 (and I\'m not looking at TG sheets (as I write this but will edit after the red board becomes available) conventional past performances, point at #3 because of recent consistently high speed figures. One could just say the favorite just threw in a clunker. A more astute player might have expected IRAD to not even hit the board.  Surely his ride didn\'t help his mount and clearly the horse wasn\'t firing on all cylinders late on the turn. I didn\'t play SAR today because of the weather but if I had I\'d have passed on the favorite because of his age, the drop in claiming price shouts for sale to me and the short price ensures little reward on an uncertain proposition.

For those players keeping it simple and considering the speed figure exclusively the winner begged a play on a day with so few. I\'m looking forward to the red board room to see how TG saw the race. It turns out TG analysis did note the winner but in an exacta with the fav

Race #8 produced a $42 dollar winner, curiously in a high-priced claiming race again with experienced and fast horses. So before looking at the field, I\'m guessing the winner did something positive that very few expected more than a favorite or two performed poorly.

At first glance, I almost laughed out loud. The winner #1 Thinkaboutit had a m/l of 20/1 and what he paid but the horse had been claimed five times in his last seven races, three of those times by the current and winning trainer Ray Handel.
The race went a lot like one would expect Irad on the three was the quickest and the Pratt riding the #4 dogged him but couldn\'t catch or pass him. It is also is not easy to see how the winner would do what he did. He does have a history of running well against %62.5 claimers @ GP last fall another I\'m eager to see his TG sheet and analysis.I would not say it was a lack of info in this case. Myopia played a role, an error-free ground-saving trip didn\'t hurt. The one key that the TG # will have picked up is that the winner\'s running style usually results in meaningful ground loss and today without it made the difference.

Well, the winner in the 8th would have been as hard to find as he was on conventional past performances. The horse\'s performances and pattern is erratic. He had several 5\'s when he was in form and that was not good enough in Friday\'s field. I think The problem is going to be what does TGJB do with this race? It is not out of the question the others all ran off races. Certainly, the place horse\'s pattern did not point at him getting back to his good ones.

My working premise is - value is most often found (on Fridays in July on off-tracks LOL) when the betting public heavily bets favorite(s) and when some factor(s) may complicate one or more of the favorite\'s results.

Tavasco Out.

[grinder]

With all due respect, other than self-aggrandizement what has been the point of your last two posts?