One 3yo Prep Race

[sekrah]

I see seven from overseas, but ZERO US-based Kentucky Derby entrants that ran only one 3yo Prep race.  (Worldly Manner ran with no 3yo prep races in 1999 and ran a 2-pt top)

We have two this year.

It\'s not difficult to spot the one that is giving me a very strong Animal Kingdom vibe.

[TreadHead]

GL Sekrah, good to see you back.

King Fury will be on my tickets for sure.

Also curious to see if Ivar can run the same figs at 9F

[sekrah]

LOL OMG.. What an ass I am.. Make that THREE. I did all that work looking at every year\'s Derby back to 1997 and missed the third one this year.  King Fury was not the one I was looking at that gives me the Animal Kingdom vibes.

[Molesap]

I got the same numbers - here is the data in case anyone is interested.

Looking at one prep going into the Derby did not yield anything too interesting as far as I was concerned. Since the archives go back to 1997, I used that as a starting date and looked through to find any starters with one prep. There were only seven horses that had one prep. Two were from Saeed bin Suroor, four were from Aidan O’Brien and one was from William Currin. Currrin trained Outta Here who is the only US horse (So Cal) but he did compete in the UAE Derby. The rest were foreign horses and a couple had won or participated in the UAE Derby. Analysis was difficult as there a couple of horses that had no 2YO foreign figures. I have summarized their performances below. The data points are few in nearly 25 years and they were a mixed bag. A new top, a couple of paired tops, and couple of X’s including one being eased and couple where there were not any 3YO figure to make an assessment. I also added the only entrant in that time span without a prep.

0 Prep Race
1999 Worldly Manner - 9/9 8.5 (paired top); 5/1 6.25 (new top) bin Suroor, Saeed

1 Prep Race Since 1997
2000 China Vista - 3/25 8.00 (top â€" only figure); 5/6 5.50 (new top) bin Suroor, Saeed
2001 Express Tour â€" 3/24 2.00 (top â€" 2YO top 5.00); 5/5 7.25 (X) bin Suroor, Saeed
2002 Johannesburg â€" 4/7 ?.?? (no figure â€" 2YO Top 6.25); 5/4 6.25 (paired 2YO top ) O\'Brien, Aidan P.
2002 Castle Gandolfo â€" 4/6 ?.?? (no figure â€" no 2YO figures); 5/4 7.00 () O\'Brien, Aidan P.
2003 Outta Here â€" 3/29 8.25 (2YO top 2.75); 5/3 3.25 (paired 2YO top) Currin, William L.
2012 Daddy long Legs â€" 3/31 5.00 (2YO top 7.75); 5/5 XX (eased â€" no figure) O’Brien, Aidan P.
2013 Lines of Battle â€" 3/30 4.25 (2YO top 9.00); 5/4 5.00 (paired 3YO top) O’Brien, Aidan P.

[toppled]

I can\'t play a horse who has the only dirt win in 35 starts for his sire & whose female family has only won on dirt in Peru.  Good luck.

[MonmouthGuy]

I agree. Hasn’t run close to fast enough yet, But hasn’t gone backwards, has a hot trainer, and could jump on dirt. Will not be using him on top but he will be on most of my tickets underneath.

[sekrah]

Of course the horse I am interested in is Helium.

I have that final Woodbine race marked up faster as the final time was compromised by a slow pace. To draw away on Tapeta like that at 7f after :46.2 was... impressive.

But not a fraction as impressive as what he did at the Tampa Bay Derby, starting 6-7 lengths off the lead, travelling nearly 6w the whole way around the track and after idling in the lane, re-breaking to kick away from a challenger.

My eyes are telling me this horse could be a monster.

It comes down to whether I should be worried about 8 week layoff or only one 3yo prep race. I can\'t say that either bothers me one iota.

[sekrah]

I completely tossed Animal Kingdom from all my tickets because of his pedigree.

Ironicus is out of Distorted Humor by an AP Indy mare. He\'s stamina driven and this is his first crop of 3yo. He\'ll have some dirt studs, I\'m sure of it.

And another refence to AK, Churchill dirt has always been kind to turf/synth runners.