Derby Elephant in the Room

[Dana666]

https://sports.yahoo.com/lasix-ban-reaches-kentucky-derby-014844195.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=fb&tsrc=fb&guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9sLmZhY2Vib29rLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADYC4Nb5F_NsDOhsnm3rcUA7IpeMQu_OJ61D-mvWuOV3_nHSf8FXHjgP0EQ9JZBhasgMbnMcEoi37O-wF1Xgzq5GNUzfyRw7jvEXy38YstiD1UduuA3IfJdAZvu0SCmhyTn9g115Jjv_CtpRmaYVH952EaUEptoB9Ywd5ZgcWI4O

I think there is no bigger factor when handicapping this year\'s derby than the Lasix ban in the prep races and the derby itself.

I haven\'t heard too many people talk about it--certainly not the talking heads on TVG or other networks.

I don\'t post much anymore; actually, I\'m transitioning more and more toward sports betting after 50 or so years of horses almost every day, so if I missed something relevant, please link it in the comments. Sports betting vs. horses is an interesting topic, perhaps for another day.

Maybe there is no way to say exactly how the ban is affecting the horses or the outcomes, but it def. is. I think mostly you see a lot of horses in prep races underperform and some strange results, which could continue in the derby.

If anyone has any thoughts or theories, it might be interesting to hear them.

My only take so far is I think horses who are distanced-challenged are more likely to be exposed without Lasix--the ban seems to affect horses\' ability to finish races the most. I also think (obviously) fresher horses with more rest might be at an advantage--don\'t know for sure--but maybe the horses that came out of the preps with more rest might have an advantage--more lightly raced? Maybe the La. or Florida races might carry more weight--they almost never do in my past derby handicapping. Historically, I\'m hugely biased toward So. Cal three year olds!

Are certain trainers who are perhaps more adept at using other PEDs going to have an advantage in a Lasix-free event? Will there be strict testing to discourage them from ramping up the magic potions? Or does the ban of Lasix as some say not allow these trainers to hide what else they might be using?

Or should we just forget all this background and just use the sheet numbers like always and let the chips fall where they may?

[mistermoose]

My two cents-
No lasix the horses may be slower, even though this may be
a subpar group.
Secondly lasix dehydrates horses, so with no lasix they can actually
run back to their race on less rest.Temperature this year looks cool
as well so less likely to stress the horses.

[RICH]

Going thru these horses, from memory , I think at least 6-7 that had Lasix off in the last race after having Lasix, all ran new tops ( off Lasix)
That surprised me

[Dana666]

Would you expect a 3 year year old to improve in late spring though?
Were they huge tops? I don\'t suppose anyone has looked at horses previously running on Lasix and then no Lasix in stakes races regarding numbers/patterns? That would be interesting to see.

[JohnTChance]

> Or should we just forget all this background and just use the sheet numbers
> like always and let the chips fall where they may?

Forget all the background! Forget the workout reports! Forget the knucklehead bloggers on YouTube. Primarily... use Jerry\'s sheet numbers. The essential tenet here is: THE BIG BOYS WIN THE BIG RACES [the same way]. In Grade Ones, 97% of the time, it\'s the power trainers (the same guys, over and over and over again). In another week when Jerry posts his Final Figures for the day, we\'ll all look back in review and shake our heads at how sorta kinda obvious the winners were.

Note also that there are a lot of Lasix alternatives. Most horsemen and their vets have figured out replacements by now. [See tenet above.] Racing perpetuates the myth that these horses have gotten to this point on hay, oats and water alone. Not true. More and more these days, whenever a horse gets a bit nervous before entering the gate, the cameraman pans away to the skies.