Tomorrow's Belmont Card

[jimbo66]

Ok, on to serious business.  Anybody planning to bet tomorrow\'s Belmont card.  Would love to hear any opinions.  Here are some of mine (to be bludgeoned, if you like).

Race 1 -  Rize is the fastest horse in the race.  If you forget his last when he broke in the air, 6 of his lat 7 figures are faster than anybody else\'s in the race.  Ahpo Here is the consensus favorite in the DRF and hopefully he goes off the favorite.  As long as the Schettino claim doesn\'t move Rize \"down\" and Velasquze sits off Favorite Sweep (if necessary), anything near 5-2 would be a steal on Rize.  

Race 3 - Have to key the strategy around betting against Gancentral Parkway off the big jump up last race.  Hopefully that race + the move to Prado will make him the favorite.  I am going to box Cuba, Infinite Glory and Go Now.  I thik Go Now will get back to his previous numbers at Belmont, espeically at one turn.  I think Infinite Glory is a win bet at anywhere near 4-1.  Dutrow doesn\'t have to move him up to win and we all know he has a tendency to move them up off the claim.

Race 6 - Devine Wind is slower than both King Richard and Loving.  Have to think Loving will take a lot of action, but his best figures are on dirt tracks, not turf.  King Richard is as fast on turf and even though he hasn\'t tried the distance, breeding suggests he can handle 1 1/4 miles.  Full Flow also faster on dirt than turf and should take money.  King Richard to win at 4-1, using both King Richard and Loving in the Pick-4.

Race 7 - Betting against Fleet Indian as the favorite.  At his best, he is par with several others.  Off the 1 1/4 drubbing, not sure we will see his best.  Swinging reacted badly to both previous good races, throwout.  Nobody pairs up like Frankel.  Hoping Fleet Indian goes off the favorite and want to bet Sweet Lips at 5-2 and single him in pick-4.  Exactas over Mariakel at a price and also the entry (Mambo Bell).  Hoping they don\'t let Fleet Indian loose on the lead, expecting Grand Prayer to run with her and set it up for the others.

Race 8 - Mike\'s Classic, Key Deputy, Aggadan and My Cousin Matt are all fast.  Bishop Court Hill is slow here,  but with his connections, coming off a win, I am hoping he takes money (4-1).  Don\'t trust Ray Ganpath with Mike\'s Classic to not get hooked up in a speed duel (pace problem!!) with Bishop Court Hill (assuming he breaks this time).  Aggadan\'s fastest races are at 7 furlongs, not 6.  Willing to take a shot with Key Deputy at 5 to 1 or so, that he can sit behind the duel up front between Mike\'s Classic and Bishop Court Hill, then take over in the stretch.  He gave it up last time at 7 furlongs, but he is better at 6.  Win bet on Key Deputy, but going four deep on the pick 4.

Race 9 - Incredible Image and Ulla Bloom are both faster than Lightlively who is 3-1 on the morning line.  Going two deep on the pick 4 and making a win bet on Incredible Image is she is 4-1 or so.

THoughts?

[shanahan]

playing late pik 3, and am with you on race 7, but I think Mike\'s Classic can wire the field in race 8.  I also think key deputy is the exotics key here...but will play both MC and watchem smokey in the pik 3...Prado, bullets, really a 1st time 4 yr old, and I always like that. The finale is odd, not a lot of breeding on the female side, so I take Miss Park place in spite of the # of races TY, Ulla Bloom (best bred both sides and returns some $$), gotta throw lightlively in despite favoritism...there you have it...$6 for the $1...

[Saddlecloth]

Jim,

Thanks for the breakdown.  Sounds pretty logical ideas even if does not work out for you.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- good job with the card, and I would say that even if you hadn\'t hit some of them.I like the the thinking in finding the bad favorites.

[jimbo66]

Thanks JB.

Jim

[jbelfior]

I see that everyone has kissed and made up....very sweet.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Hern]

Jimbo, How about today\'s Belmont?  You did a great job yesterday and it didn,t cost me $25.

[jimbo66]

Hern,

Thanks for the kind words.  

I only looked at the first 3 races today, as I have a busy afternoon at work, so just \"lunchtime action\" for me.  And the three races are not terribly appealing.

1st Race - America\'s Cat is the fastest horse and is also dropping from MSW to MC.  But I am always suspect of Monmouth figures and also don\'t like horses that continue to give up leads in the stretch.  If she goes off at odds on (likely?), I will bet against.  Exclusive Print has room to improve off of only 3 career efforts.  Her race two back was against Selltherallies and Come Dance, both of whom have come back to win VERY impressively.  I will bet her at 2-1, if I can get it.

2nd Race - Taking a stab here, since I am using a relatively short price in the first race.  Crazy Song has a couple of figures last year over the Belmont Turf course that could win this race. Hasn\'t run well in 2004 in two starts, but both were over the main track.  At 10-1 ML, I will use her in the doubles.  I also will use Mountain Top.  I don\'t like that Frankel is using Lezcano, instead of his \"go to\" jocks, but the horse was trained by Andre Fabre and running in allowance company in France.  Against a relatively slow field, at 6-1 ML, I think she is worth a shot.  Exclusive Print with Crazy Song and Mountain Top in the doubles.

3rd Race - I really hope the Morning Line oddsmaker is correct.  More Heck is slow and gets Ganpath, which is a double negative for me.  Favorite Sweep is Dutrow off the claim.  Dutrow has to move her up a couple of points to win, but I think he is usable in the exactas.  He\'s a Knockout has some fast figures at Delaware and would be my win bet but I worry about the pace scenario.  My guess is that Favorite Sweep, Le Bourget, Albert E and He\'s A Knockout all go for the lead.  Which leads me to Mombo Loco.  Throw out the last figure, which was a route effort and her sprint efforts make him tough.  Add to that the pace scenario seemingly playing in his favor and he is my win bet.  I will three horse box with Favorite Sweep and He\'s A Knockout.

Good luck,

Jim

[JimP]

But I noticed he missed all the filly picks. Sorry, couldn\'t pass that up.