One more thought...

[JohnTChance]

Another thought from Breeder\'s Cup day…

I’ve never played in a handicapping tournament. Probably because I perceive it to be a “longshots for longshots-sake” exercise. Down and desperate, you’re squeezed to play a bomb. Right? [Plus, whenever I think of tournaments, I think of one particular player, a knucklehead I knew, new to ThoroGraph, who just a few weeks prior to winning, scolded Jerry on this forum for not posting a free Race of The Week. How dare Jerry not publish a free Race of The Week! My unsaid reaction: “Didn’t the guy have $5 in his pocket to buy the damn race on his own?” Apparently not. Anyway…]

During this pandemic while binge-chilling on YouTube, I happened to catch a video of the top two finishers of this years BCHC tournament discussing how they came to finish 1-2. How they bet. How they won. Their strategies. Did they have any 75-1 shots? Any 20-1 shots? 10-1 shots? No! It turns out the winning player “went all in” on MONOMOY GIRL at 4-5! And had a couple of other, well… if I may say so, pretty obvious winners: Like, who in this galaxy didn’t think AUTHENTIC was fastest from the gate and thus, would wire the field on that concrete highway? Not to mention IMPROBABLE finishing second while running the best number in the race, yet done in by his wide against-the-grain trip, as happened twice to him last year at Oaklawn. Bottom line: My hat’s off to the top two tournament finishers. They’re smart players. My point here is that their success came without any long shots. Something of a surprise. Something that caught my eye.

[Bet Twice]

That’s the difference between the “live money” tournaments where you can wager (mostly) the way you want, and the the more traditional format where you get n number of $2 win or win/place bets and it becomes a pick and pray crapshoot.  Not a big tournament player myself (10k for BC is a little steep for my bankroll), but that format is definitely more skill based.
If you are going to bet 10k on the BC anyway, certainly worth playing in the tournament as you get to keep your winnings and have the potential to also win tournament money.

[rezlegal]

There are advantages - and disadvantages- to both formats. Pick and pray requires the handicapper to figure out value( odds)in advance without a live tote board and is better at allowing a player to protect against someone far behind simply reaching for a bomb as a last minute desperation play.If you are going to play a bomb in the last race or two in a pick and pray, you have to figure out in advance if it’s a live bomb worth playing and not simply a stab.That is part of the strategy component in a pick and pray not present in live betting. Live betting tournaments- and there are many well within most of our bankrolls- to me is far more difficult since you have to be willing and able to alter your picks on the fly once you see the standings and live odds.