2020 Kentucky Oaks in the rear view mirror.

[Tavasco]

I\'m not sure there was anything that didn\'t surprise me. Commenting on the race may help me put some pieces together.

I won\'t try and speculate which fillies TG# went down or up or stayed the same that is the TG domain. My focus is on my own learning where was my logic off base and vice versa.

The Winner Shedaresthedevil, her pattern was obviously that of an improving horse. I had doubts because she had a lot of improvement to date and was still 3 or 5 points slower than the top 3 favorites.  Cox? Daredevil? The biggest question in my mind is did the others regress or did the winner jump up again?

The 2nd place finisher Swiss Skydiver whom I along with many expected to regress ran a good race. Could be Gaffalione had Gamine measured and was surprised when the winner spurted away.

Gamine? Baffert pretty much said she was a question at the longer distance without shouting it? The Baffert mystique also obscured that not many improve on a -2. Backing up should not surprise me. But it did.

I suppose Speech ran her race may be a slight regression. I thought she  might improve. In the end, without the winner, the top three figured!

Donna Veloce had some trouble but my opinion is she should not have been in that race. I can\'t know but she ran like a horse with some physical problems. I saw her as one with an upside exactly the wrong read. So I have a grudge with her connections.

Tempers Rising the key to a $4,469 super high five. That\'s the one TGJB commented on I think. Don\'t ya just hate it when that happens?

I also liked Hopeful Growth. The wrong pattern read again. The regression was as likely as a continued improvement. I was seduced by the price.




I was never gonna have that winner

Swiss Skydiver\'s pattern was equally positive as negative imo.

Gamine, \"when in doubt don\'t\" especially when at a short price.

[Marlin]

Travasco,
I also was on Donna Veloce; liked her 2 YO base #s, looked very hidden, won with ease last out but only 5.  Then picking between DV & Oaks winner Shedaresthedevil, I went to the Sire breeding #s as the tie breaker.  That is my achilles heal & actually seems to beat me often.  Seems I lean too much on that sire breading #s.  Am I really off base looking @ those?

Should have gone with the lastest 3 instead, but like you thought Oaks Winner Shedaresthedevil already improved tons already & didn\'t have a forward move left.  

Happy Hunting today.