Why you should BUY sheets every time you play:PARET

[Dana666]

chart

Disclaimer: I didn\'t buy sheets yesterday and played very small.

Did anyone hit with Paret? Competitive numbers and exiting a 1.2 million dollar race over course and distance in which he finished second; plus he was getting 6 pounds less than his main rivals which really matters in a mile and a half race. I didn\'t even note the jockey change to Vargas, who is exponentially better than Frankie P (no offense to him). I think I slept walked through that one. The thing was if you only knew Lezcano, for some inexplicable reason was going to grab Noble Indy, you might have liked Paret more, right? What the hell was Lezcano doing?  

Now, I hated the favorites (Rosario\'s horse ran well, but I know he doesn\'t love really fast turf--so I wasn\'t sold in him) and was looking for a speed horse. Right idea, wrong horse. How could Standard Deviation take so much money--average numbers and a switch away from Chad. Like anyone improves a horse after Brown, pretty rare. Sadler\'s Joy always runs huge numbers because he\'s usually wide and closing--I was playing against him. And the Mott horse was in post 13. But the ones I used I would never have used if I had bought sheets though. Noble Indy was slow as molasses;I thought HE might make the lead. Pletcher\'s other runner was probably a bounce waiting to happen--also a wide post, so maybe he didn\'t bounce. It\'s funny, the TG race analyst also had the right idea, mentioning longshot chances, just not the right one.

Sometimes it looks so easy afterwards. And I hate it when people say that!

Carryover today in the Pick 5: Let\'s just hope it doesn\'t rain too much--I would think the races may still stay on the turf even if the rain comes through--scattered thunderstorms is the forecast.

Don\'t forget EMPIRE 6 mandatory Saturday.

Good luck to all.

[milwmike]

I looked at the sheets this morning based on your post (not a player yesterday). Here is the counter argument to playing the winner.
The winner exited a $100k race (not $1.2M) where he finished second in a 7 horse field at 22-1.  Besides the winner, any horse in that race would have been a very long price in yesterday\'s race.
The winner had not won a race since 2018.
The trainer stats show last race > 90 days at 9% win, 39% top or pair.  Trainer has had 6 starters all year.  

In the horse\'s favor, he has typically been running in races less than a mile and his top was at 1.5 miles, although at the end of his 5yo campaign (race ready for his longest race ever).  Maybe the trainer has figured out that he really wants to go long.

It all comes down to how you analyze the race (what if Noble Indy did run head and head with Paret, how would that have affected the outcome) and the individual handicapper\'s opinion on what a horse will run in a race.  My opinion only, as a southern hemisphere bred 6yo with the trainer stats, I personally would have assigned something under 5% to pair or run a new top yesterday and maybe something under 30% chance of running his secondary top (this is made tougher because so many races are in Australia with no figs, but based on the 9 for the one race down under, hard to see that he was running better than the 4.5 he started running later last year).  I will be curious to see what number is assigned to the winner.  My guess is something around 4.5 (so obviously I was wrong in my assumptions!!).  At 38-1, I could play this horse.  At 20-1, I couldn\'t based upon my assumptions.

I love that TG sheets do highlight horses that can and do outrun their odds.  Its that edge all of us are looking for.

Good luck

[Dana666]

you\'re third point down was why i took a negative view without even seeing numbers--he hadn\'t won for a while--i think though, the simplest assessment--the number plus he was getting weight made him someone to look at. he was certainly a contender

if noble indy ran head to head, i think he\'d have had almost no chance--i thought indy being inside of him would make the lead and hold it

anyway if you like beatable favorites--LOOK at today\'s card--holy cow--

[belmont3]

Another consideration was the human connection.

Trainer Lawrence had Glorious Empire who, not that long ago, busted out on the Saratoga Lawn late July 2017 and mowed down rivals at generous odds in a very nice 2018 season. Bowling Green and Sword Dancer come to mind.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Glorious_Empire#

BTW Bernie was quite a boxer with a tragic end to his life:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benny_Paret#:~:text=Bernardo%20%22Benny%20the%20Kid%22%20Paret,born%20in%20Santa%20Clara%2C%20Cuba.