cigar mile o2x?

[vired]

is bal harbour an o2x? he is the fastest horse and he is 8/1!

[FrankD.]

I would be very skeptical of calling Bal Harbour a true 0-2-X?
His O was a very ground loaded 4W4W ride by P-Dubs guy, the 2 was with a pretty good bump at the start and the X was on a sloppy track using the full 42 day limit between races if you read the definition. It’s probably the most confused, misunderstood and mislabeled pattern out there.... That said the turn back to a one turn mile and dropping 4lbs of his last should certainly be beneficial.

IMHO: It’s a 2 horse race between Maximum Security and Looking at Bikini’s.
I think Spun to Run is totally over the top after the BC race where he really drifted out. Four races in 60 days and God ONLY knows how Guerrero got through out of OCT testing...... His 24% strike rate over 5 years on TG is 12% at Aqueduct off a pretty good sample. Lastly he is not fast enough to stay with Max. Irad will certainly do his best to take what he can out of him to help his brother.

I’m only using 2 in the last leg of the pick 6 and will be hitting this exacta very heavy if I’m not alive going into to the last leg.

Good luck on the last day Aqueduct will be playable for Moi until Gotham Day.

Frank D.

[vired]

thanks frank. funny race with cb in there

[jbelfior]

Just watched last year\'s Cigar Mile. Curious ride on \"Pat on the Back\" by Dylan. Horse hangs in tough despite chasing the Chad winner.

A bit light in the numbers, however one turn a better fit and he\'s usually the one spotting, not getting weight.

Smarter tactics today could land him in the exotics at double digit odds.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Socalman3]

There is another horse in the race that is a much truer 0-2-X.  Also a better price.

I think this is a great betting race.  The highweight and heavy favorite is a 3yo running against older and faster horses.  He is giving horses that have run better tops than him at least a point of weight.  he is going to take a ton of extra stupid money because of his win rate (finished first in 7 of 8 races and second in only race he didnt run 1st in) but he racked up the record against a suspect 3yo crop and now he is in deep water.  If he faces pressure, he is at serious risk of cracking -- looks like a fragile horse that has had a long campaign and is only running here to attempt to get something for another purpose.

I think the second choice is an overaced 3yo again stepping into deep water (although he did beat older in a G1 last out)...again, end of long season, race was an afterthought not a target.  Horses in here too good to take so lightly.

My problem is that after you throw out the top two favorites, there are so many tasty horses to choose from -- I could be entirely right on throwing out the chalk but still come up empty handed.  I note there are two potential 0-2-X out there and as noted by other CB looks loaded -- that makes 4 to use.

The only thing I would add is that the horse on the rail is actually arguably taking a step down in class into this race. The only horses that beat him that day are horses that would easily be very heavy favorites in this race if they were in it. I wish he were getting a bit more weight.

So, there is a 5 horse box -- exacta, tri, and super.  Sorry for anybody else like thinking as I probably entirely jinxed you too because I am often right but also often dont have the right tickets to prove it.

[Tavasco]

If the favorite is in fact worth 3/5 we have yet to see his best.

I\'m in favor of your read w a Nicodemus to win.


Edit - 3/5 would have been a bargain - call me impressed in hindsight.

[Socalman3]

In addition to swinging and missing on the race itself --I was alive in very healthy horizontals to 5 horses -- the best any of my 5 horses did was finish 4th.  

As to the winner, it is hard to belief a horse they were willing to part with for $16k less than a year ago was able to hold together for a campaign like that for 12 months.

[Ace]

It sure looked like the AQU stretch was a no passing zone today.

[Bet Twice]

I would agree with that.  8 of 10 races were won by horses who had the lead entering the stretch.  The other 2 were won by horses who were in 2nd (1 by a head, one by 1/2) entering the stretch.

[FrankD.]

A steady all day wind of 20-25 mph at the stretch runners back may have helped a bit......