Belmont Derby - English Bee

[Silver Charm]

Zero chance this one goes off at 30-1 off that 4+ in his last. Not saying I\'m betting him but if he is 30-1 something goes down on him. Bet him in is win at GP and then again at Tampa where he had a very shuffled trip. Of course I get off when he wins at Pimlico.

Which brings me to Seismic Wave. We bet these horses then we have trouble not betting them thinking today is the day he wins. If they want to wait all day before a rally he will never win. Surrounded by quality Brown horses. Pletcher in the mix and Casses runner ran well in the Penn Mile.

Digital Age has yet to run fast but always runs fast enough to win. Not every Brown horse can get the inside out rail run and some have bad posts. Something has to give. This is a really quality field. Have not made up my mind how to play it. Help is appreciated

[vired]

don\'t disagree with english bee. if he runs a 4 has a big chance. i got him on a bounce but these are 3yr olds. my choice (although i hate the post and johnny v hasn\'t been a winner for me lately) is #14 Rockemperor. on the board 2/2 at distance. got to get 6/1 before pulling trigger. best of luck!!

[Tavasco]

Looks to me like an interesting race. I\'m contemplating if there is a good play. Probably, but what?

Five entrants are dubious to me.That\'s dubious good not dubious slow. As good as TG #\'s are I have to believe that getting a good # for a US runner is easier than doing the same for a Euro.

But for me its all about finding an overlay. So if English Bee stays anywhere near 30/1 he\'s on my $1 show bet action play. I\'ll add Master Jester to my dubious herd.

All three Euros have a blemish of sorts. I\'ll have to do some research but Cape Of Good hope went off @4/1 in a field of 13 in his last @ Ascot. I\'m confident it wasn\'t the distance that gave him a problem. (not with Galileo on top) so I\'ll figure he had traffic problems.  It will surprise me none of the three finish in the money.

Then there\'s Spinoff? His Ky Derby was poor, was he one of the severely bothered horses in KY? I like the dam\'s turf influence. His price will probably float up. Dirt to turf is an unappreciated change. The owner/breeders may have had the lawn in mind all along and because he was so precocious he ended up on the TC trail. I\'ll take a chance most wouldn\'t and put him on top.

Brown\'s bevy do not impress me here. They\'ll all be overbet anyway so I won\'t use any of them.

Who does that leave? TAP\'s Social Paranoia stretching to 1+1/4, forget about it! Henley\'s Joy. As much as I like the style of shirt I dislike this Mike Maker trainee. The other U.S. horses can\'t beat the Brownies I\'ll leave them out and even Casse\'s jump up  candidate Moon Colony as much as I like him.

If I can get an exacta out of the dubious 5 I\'ll be....lucky, considering the numbers are all so close and a couple point move either way due to form or trip is reality. Here we are looking at a race which imo is gonna be close with a screaming finish.

7,9,10,11,14 ebx

[Mike C]

The 5 Plus Que Parfait has a nice looking line, with small improvements and rest,and a sire that did well on turf.  I am leery of master fencer, lost his only 2 grass races, and both were at relatively long odds.  Chad\'s horses have not run that fast yet, and will all but one have to deal with the outside posts and wide trips.
If Spinoff likes the grass he could be tough, he has speed, and can therefore get a good trip.
I like 5 and 10.  But you could make a case for almost all of them. Good luck.

[Tavasco]

Thanks Mike, I was sitting here thinking five is too deep for me to spread so my sentimental choice Master Jester is out of my exacta play. He just takes too long to get into the race and only say 12/1.

Good Luck

[bfick]

Completely agree with SW.  Rosario is going to have to crank this guy up earlier to take this.  Predicting another ridiculously low price as everyone keeps playing more distance will eventually get him home.  

I also like EB and agree no way we get 30-1.  Still, at even at half the price he and the less talked about CB will be the 2 horses I key in my trifectas.  SD is already faster than the other 3 stablemates with a cozy slot down on the inside.  Any small forward move and this guy should be right there on his 2nd turf try.  

Terrific betting race where all have to be used in some capacity.

Keys: 2,4
A: 9,11,12
B: 3,13,14
C: 1,5,6,7,8,10


Good luck!

[Silver Charm]

I\'m sure Mott has put 15-20 miles of training in this one since the Pennine Ridge. Seriously. I like him doing at Saratoga also. I think in his first few races he had tendency to goof off once he got the lead. Immature. At the same time you can\'t expect to come home a final quarter in 21 and win. Perhaps if you put him into things sooner he loses some punch.

The Brown horses are always quick and have a Euro Pop. They train everyday with a Grade One winner because it\'s all he has in his barn it seems like. And Aiden OBrien deal who BTW is in here and no one is talking about him. Hmmmm

[milwmike]

Cape of Good Hope - from what I\'ve read and heard, he hated the softer turf at Ascot.

Spinoff - TAP has said that he did not train well over the slop at CD and ran like it in the Derby - going off at 50-1 is an indication that is probably correct.

[skitimber]

\"I\'ll take a chance most wouldn\'t and put him on top.\"

Hope you\'re correct about \"most\".  Hoping not many at all.  Opened at 9-1 and that would be a nice price on this one.

[Tavasco]

Whoopsie!!!

Hopefully the 10/1 final odds scared you away!

I over rated the euros.

Once again durt to tirf is a bad angle.

Jinxed myself with the shirt comment.

Wasabi got as close as maybe 5th before decelerating to last. No wonder they take him back.