Do final times mean anything?

[boardedup]

Because if they do take a look at the Sunland derby.  I know it’s a second tier  race but if Firing Line switches leads AP doesn’t win the derby.  Point is there’s some “recency” coming out of that race and the winner this year ran about 15 lengths faster than anyone else this prep season based solely on final times. I usually don’t pay much attention at all to final times at different tracks on different days etc., but 146 & change jumps off the page?  Does it mean anything or should I keep ignoring final times in preps? Thoughts?

[TempletonPeck]

Personally, I buy TGs so that I don\'t have to compare final times.

[Mike C]

the whole point of TG figures is because final times at different tracks cannot be accurately compared. Horses that run 1:08 at Del Mar for 6f can get a TG 4 (for example), and a horse at laurel can run 6f in 1:09 and get a 2, so the slower race is actually faster, and without TG you would have no way of knowing. So final times do not mean much to me. If you are old enough to remember the spring meet at belmont in 1973 there were several new track records on dirt leading up to the belmont stakes. Most have been broken since (secretariat still has two records, 1 1/2 miles and 1 1/8 miles). Point is that the track was so \"fast\" in may and june of that year that final times were very fast, (forego ran an allowance race on belmont day that year, and set a track record for 1 1/16 miles). So final times are usually not truly indicative of true speed.

[boardedup]

I completely understand and agree with the concept of using TG fig’s to quantify how fast said horse ran on said day.  I probably didn’t do a good enough job framing my question, Obviously, in general you can’t compare different preps ran on different surfaces under different pace scenarios etc, and just look at the clock and come to a hard and fast conclusion.  A large % of time the horse posting the winning time didn’t run the best number.  

This year there was the weird deeper track at Santa Anita, I haven’t seen a definitive opinion on what credence to put into that? I would say in the past SA was a speed favoring strip on big days/preps.  Was that the case this year?  How much work did the new ml favorite actually do in putting away Insta Grand before being caught from the clouds by Roadster?  Those final times were slow, but Game Winner ran a good number finishing second.

Anyway, my point was more so the outlier of the Sundland time, and I appreciate the answer above.  I guess it doesn’t mean anything, and as I’ve said I normally pay little to no attention to final times.  But 48-72 hours out you’re looking at everything trying to find “something.”  And looking at the raw times you find a horse that’ll be ~35-1 that ran a full 20 lengths faster than other prep winners.  I assume this happens every year and I just have never paid head to it previously.  But I was curious as to what others thought of that prep in general, and probably should have simply stated the question as such.  Just trying to make sure I dot all the I’s and cross all the T’s, because my gut tells me that this race, especially with OB scratching, is going to produce serious prices.

[Molesap]

For reference, here are the raw times for this year’s preps framed against the historical averages from 2000 and later (when available). I also listed the number of superfecta finishers in that time frame as well for each prep.

Florida Derby (average 1:49.4). Maximum Security in 1:48.86.
24.42, 48.98, 1:12.90, 1:36.34, 1:48.86 (split times 24.42, 24:56, 23:92, 23:44, 12:52)
Superfecta finishers of horses running in FLA Derby prior to running in Kentucky Derby since 2000: 6-3-1-3

Santa Anita Derby (average is 1:49.0). Roadster in 1:51.28.
23.34, 47.84, 1:12.20, 1:38.34, 1:51.28 (split times 23.34, 24:50, 24.36, 26.14, 12.94)
Superfecta finishers of horses running in SA Derby prior to running in Kentucky Derby since 2000: 4-2-3-4

Arkansas Derby (average is 1:49.6). Omaha Beach in 1:49.91.
23.08, 47.50, 1:12.46, 1:37.53, 1:49.91 (split times 23.08, 24.42, 24.96, 25.07, 12.38)
Superfecta finishers of horses running in ARK Derby prior to running in Kentucky Derby since 2000: 3-3-5-2

Wood Memorial (average 1:49.9). Tacitus in 1:51.23.
23.62, 46.91, 1:11.46, 1:37.81, 1:51.23 (split times 23.62, 23.29, 24.55, 26.35, 13.42)
Superfecta finishers of horses running in Wood Mem prior to running in Kentucky Derby since 2000: 3-2-1-5

Blue Grass (average is 1:49.9). Vekoma in 1:50.93.
23.26, 47.03, 1:11.55, 1:37.48, 1:50.93 (split times 23.26, 23.77, 24.52, 25.93, 13.45)
Superfecta finishers of horses running in Blue Grass prior to running in Kentucky Derby since 2000: 1-5-3-3

Louisiana Derby (average 1:50.6). By My Standards in 1:49.53.
23.63, 47.68, 1:11.54, 1:36.84, 1:50.93 (split times 23.63, 24.05, 23.86, 25.30, 12.69)
Superfecta finishers of horses running in LA Derby prior to running in Kentucky Derby since 2000: 1-3-4-4

Sunland Derby (average 1:48.. Cutting Humor in 1:46.94.
22.76, 45.63, 1:09.63, 1:34.76, 1:46.94 (split times 22.67, 22.87, 24.00, 25.13, 12.18)
Superfecta finishers of horses running in SUN Derby prior to running in Kentucky Derby since 2000: 1-1-0-0

[Tavasco]

The second place horse in the Sunland Derby may serve as a point of reference in this puzzle. Anothertwistafate in an effort to get the points needed to enter the Ky Derby came back to run in the Lexington Stakes @ Keeneland. Note Anothertwistafate (an impressive colt) was only beaten a head. Cutting Humor did not run off and hide. Like we see when the clock is fast and the performance # is good.

Anothertwistafate also ran 2nd to Owendale in the Lexington 4/13. The race @ 1 +1/16 went :24.33, :48.23, 1:12.88, 1:38.05, 1:44.14 by the clock. The Sunland Race went in¨:45³ 1:09³ 1:34³ 1:46⁴

A cursory look discloses that the early part of the Sunland race went almost three seconds faster than the Keeneland race. Does that mean Cutting Humor can be expected to be contesting the lead in the KY Derby. I suspect that would be a surprise to many.

The key to your inquiry revolves around the first six furlongs of the Sunland race that\'s where some 15 lengths of the time difference that you are concerned about occurred.

That is of course if I understanding your concern @ a dreary 3 a.m.

[boardedup]

Indeed you did, I see him even more forwardly placed drawing perfect and picking up Mike Smith in the 11th hour then I did before. The off going doesn’t appear to hurt either quite possibly the opposite.  I am conflicted as to if he has the quicks to be comfortably in that first flight of stalkers.  Being on the lead would be a surprise (I think his stablemate is more likely to be up there mixing it up having to “go” from the outside and more natural speed). But yes, I think he may be quicker from the jump than it would appear, but how much so?

Interesting seeing the super break downs, more even than I would have thought for sure.  Looks like only LA preps lagging a tad and there seems to be a thought that they were better this year than usual?  Thanks for the responses all- break a leg this weekend gentlemen....