Arlington Million Revisited

[marcus]

Lucy - Al\'s a buddy + I don\'t work for Jerry though I would in a NY second if an opertunity or spot became available that would benifit everyone ( incl even you ) becouse TG is a great company . Besides , in an attempt to keep it real , who wouldn\'t want go to work for TG anyway ? TG will explain if requiered I suppose . However , aside from that , TG is a part of my NY family and Jerry (along a couple other folks who also gave me alot of their time + energy )taught me what they could about racing and the biz . I know that anyone at TG be trusted and have demonstraited that to me time and again .
 Comments + Analysis about upcoming races can be and are very often estute regardless of win or loss , anyway it\'s the roi that matters , not win % , make sense ?
Realize that one will more often be wrong about a race in so far as having the right horse win  more often than their being  right about a race . The whole thing is to not look too bad in doing so .
Whats your story Lucy if you don\'t mind me asking , is thier a thing w/ you and GW & TG , whats your line ? It\'s none of my affair but you sound as though you work for the competition or Ralph Nader according to many of your post\'s .
 I had a feeling when writing my post to Al @ TG that I\'d inevitably wind up hearing from you .  
I respect everyones opinion at TG and value Al\'s take on any number racing and non racing issues ,and again I know Al + TG can be trusted , thats why I responded to his comments .
 I\'m not saying your opinion doesn\'t count for whatever reason and I don\'t really care how my opinions ( meeger as they are ) are recieved by anyone( w/ TG as a poss exception) .
If someone is right or wrong - they are right or wrong . The slippery slope of \"why\" could perhaps be the subject of future post\'s I don\'t presently have the time for .
 Many a time an issue is subjective - meaning the answer isn\'t a black or white one , nothing in Racing (or life ) is carved in stone ( a wonderful philosiphy )and is open to interpetation . Is that not right ?
I will edit a post usually to embelish or augment and not to attenuate - due to  ( inadequecies and deficiantcies and short comings ) my inexperience as a  writer . Incidently , I do know that everyone is entightled to thier opinions even when wrong as in your case ...
You had the first and now can have the last word on this one if desired - it\'s the least type of courtesy that I can extend  + I\'m not going over the wall on this and besides , I tend to value opinions ( or hold too values ) which help to put bread on the table , how about you ?  ok  ...



Post Edited (08-22-04 13:31)

[Lucy]

\"Whats your story Lucy if you don\'t mind me asking , is thier a thing w/ you and GW & TG , whats your line ? It\'s none of my affair but you sound as though you work for the competition or Ralph Nader according to many of your post\'s .\"


certainly don\'t mind --- just never thought my story was so interesting to merit turning this board into my blog.
by \'thing\' I hope you don\'t mean romance....
as far as george goes, I really don\'t know the guy at all --- just \'met\' him recently while he was tacking up an ad poster on another site.
from the handful of posts I\'ve seen he seems like an alright guy to me.
you may have me confused w/another of len\'s attack dogs.
as far as tg goes, couldn\'t care one way or another -- if I were a more selfish and ungrateful person, I\'d wish that everybody used it.
unlike some others, I\'m not on any figure makers payroll.
I\'m just a semi-regular on another site, whose introduction to jerry was his incessant spamming of our collective inbox, along w/some pretty horrendous public opinions.

I always like some good race chat, and there\'s some pretty funny stuff on this board, so I stop in every so often.
jerry knows he isn\'t getting my 25 bucks, and I don\'t cooperate in his spinning my posts into trying to get somebody else\'s 25 bucks, so my brief visits usually end w/the same fate as a few others who don\'t patronize the establishment.
speaking of funny posts......
the diana (rotw) was a train wreck --- he labeled every horse as a contender and advocated playing against the 1st and 3rd finishers.
he touted a bad chalk in the million, and the one you were commenting on hadn\'t even been decided yet.
sandwiched in between, was a 9/5 pick.
so, really, my reply had more to do w/your own fatuous nonsense than any \'thing\' w/george or tg.

and to answer your other question --- I really wouldn\'t want to work for tg.

ps

if I might be extended the courtesy of a question of my own --- are you a foreigner?

[Lucy]

ok, don\'t get me wrong --- it\'s not that I completely dispute what you are saying, it\'s just that I think you were a little quick to jump to conclusions based on observation, so I point out an equally probable cause for your observed effect.
I realize that your hypothetical was greatly exaggerated for illustration, but I think it may be misleading, in that horses really don\'t \'walk\' while making a slow pace, and really don\'t accelerate to the wire as often as it might appear.
I think it\'s more typical that the winner can maintain 12 second furlongs, while the others slow down in the last quarter.
certainly, there are some instances of horses running 13\'s and finishing w/an 11, but this is more the exception, I think.
bear in mind that it\'s been years since I was breaking down race fractions.
I only base my opinions on playing turf solely off figs w/decent result.
in fact, I tend to prefer playing turf over dirt.

if what you maintain is true, jerry would seem to be wasting a great amount of effort on euro figs, as I\'m sure that it\'s even more pronounced over there.

[marcus]

There wasn\'t much that could be done w/ the pacific classic .
 One factor critic\'s seem to overlook regarding the euro turf figures semi buzz is that , in my opinion , horse\'s debuting in north america can improve , so a 2-3 pt jump should not be a big suprise to anyone .
My take in the Arlington race is irrelevent , aside from the questionable DQ , was the very tightly bunched grouping of horse\'s going around the course that seemed to put many at a disadvantage appeared to be an aboration  as did and as was the way the track came up that race - I went w/ the #13 to win and it seemed everything went against him , additionally , I had an ex p/w to protect the win bet as well . I \'d play that race the same way if run again .
 I think I now know where your coming from Lucy with your post\'s and I\'m not going there . I don\'t know exactly  where your going however with your question or remark about nationality and once again ,
I won\'t touch that issue either except to say if your poking fun in jest at my lack of writing skills , bad grammer and spelling etc ,
I went to like hippie school\'s and cut english class regularly .  
As far as this web chatter stuff , your a pro and it\'s all fine and well to a point . It seems to me alot of things get said on web sites which are untempered by wisdom and forthought .
Many people appear to be reacting to a situation with out having had the benifit of thinking the whole thing through . I\'m sure I\'d be capable of a couple loose words when someone is trying ruin my career or destroy my credibility - I know becouse it\'s happened ...  how about you ?



Post Edited (08-23-04 07:02)

It\'s not a waste of time. Speed figures for turf races are still a good way to find stronger and weaker fields/performances at various class levels. IMO, they are just  more prone to problems.

[mandown]

Oh dear, Lucy, there you go again.

What is it that makes you so determined to make yourself look stupid and unpleasant? I\'ll be generous and assume it\'s honesty.

I\'m the foreigner here, not Marcus. And it was us foreigners that brought you the Racing Times. We failed, true enough, but what would the DRF be like if there had been no RT?

And, more importantly, in case you haven\'t noticed this is a country of immigrants and without them there would be an awful lot of sick people around. And where would IT or the space program be without foreigners?

It\'s a big world out there, Lucy, and it\'s not just from sea to shining sea.

OK so the jibe wasn\'t about foreigners it was just your \'clever\' way of putting down Marcus for his lack of fluency with the English language. Guess you\'re proud of that.

Doubtless you sat there chortling to yourself as to how sharp you were but the remark makes you either a xenophobe or someone who takes pleasure in humiliating others. If you think either makes you look good then you are in dire need of help.

I\'m sure we all look forward to more of your \'witty\' postings.

[Lucy]

hehe...actually your post made me do most of my chortling.
ok, jerry springer, you don\'t see ME calling YOU names, although I suppose that\'s the hallmark of this board.
here I was thinking you didn\'t even read the board --- guess you find time to participate when you get a chance to rip on somebody.

ps

maybe I\'m confused on this, but it was my impression that you are english, and as such, might have some fluency in the language of the same name.
but, thanks for the tangential rant.

*tees up football*

[HP]

Mandown,

You wrote -- \"It\'s a big world out there, Lucy, and it\'s not just from sea to shining sea.\"

If this is true, what are all these Brits doing in Manhattan? You can\'t go out to a club without falling over them. There\'s always a cluster of them at the bar when I\'m trying to get a drink.

And finally, why can\'t any of them pick up a check once in awhile? Not very good tippers either.

HP

[mandown]

Hi HP,

The reason you keep falling over them is that we have a different drinking culture.

Have to say things have changed in the last couple of years, though - abstinence makes the heart grow fonder? You did say, however, it was when you were having trouble getting a drink at the bar so maybe things will be different when you try this year.

As for tipping we pay bar staff a living wage without expecting them to rely on handouts. Takes people a while to adjust to the different lifestyle in the colonies.

Pip Pip! Just like old times!

Cheers,
George

[P.Eckhart]

Lucy wrote:
\"if what you maintain is true, jerry would seem to be wasting a great amount of effort on euro figs, as I\'m sure that it\'s even more pronounced over there.\"

Classhandicapper wrote:
\"It\'s not a waste of time. Speed figures for turf races are still a good way to find stronger and weaker fields/performances at various class levels. IMO, they are just more prone to problems.\"

Aren\'t the proposed euro figures performance figures not \"speed figures\". I\'m not playing silly semantics, I\'m interested. They mean two different things to me. For instance Timeform gave Doyen 131/124 (performance figure /speed figure) for his run in the King Edward Stakes. Five weeks later in the King George they gave Doyen 132/92 (perf/speed). i.e. All things equal after normalisation the latter race was run 16L slower than the former but was judged to yield a 1/2L better performance.

Just a thought. But is the above case similar to the smooth vs. ouchy pattern criticism that is often being levelled at TG & Rags. i.e. because they do not publish 2 separate figures like Timeform, Rags are maybe more \"speedlike\" and TG more \"performancelike\"?

[HP]

The \"living wage\" in Manhattan is like a million a year. For a studio.

You\'re one of the good ones. HP

[Lucy]

\"Aren\'t the proposed euro figures performance figures not \"speed figures\". I\'m not playing silly semantics, I\'m interested. They mean two different things to me. For instance Timeform gave Doyen 131/124 (performance figure /speed figure) for his run in the King Edward Stakes. Five weeks later in the King George they gave Doyen 132/92 (perf/speed). i.e. All things equal after normalisation the latter race was run 16L slower than the former but was judged to yield a 1/2L better performance.

Just a thought. But is the above case similar to the smooth vs. ouchy pattern criticism that is often being levelled at TG & Rags. i.e. because they do not publish 2 separate figures like Timeform, Rags are maybe more \"speedlike\" and TG more \"performancelike\"?\"



no.
if anything, it would be the opposite, however, the 2 are similar in schematic, it\'s just the manufacturing that sets them apart, and creates the chunky and creamy styles that you mentioned.
I always like to think of Rags as condition figs, because that\'s how I use them, but they (and jerry\'s reproduction) are actually \'speed\' figs.
I would like to defer to george on the timeform comparison, as he is our resident foreigner, but there might not be enough invective in this discussion to catch his interest.
I\'ll definitely defer to jerry on the proposed euros, but my guess is that they are just the same speed figs that he\'s making now.

on a tangent, if jerry\'s going to jump in on this, I would ask if he plans on cutting races loose on the euro figs --- do turf variants change between races?

[mandown]

There you go again, Lucy.

For the record Mr. Eckhart was absolutely spot on in his comments on the two Timeform figures. The usual Timeform figure is based on the collateral performances of the horses in a race while the timefigure is a pure speed number.

Since, as has been widely documented, Jerry uses the past efforts of horses to make a variant for each race whereas Ragozin bases variant changes on the \'physical resiliency\' of the surface then I would have thought his point re the differences between the two figures was also pretty accurate. No surprise that you\'d see it as the complete opposite, then.

The example cited by Mr. Eckhart re Doyen shows why UK figures are performance rather than speed-based. In the UK the maxim is a good time means a good horse but it is also true that good horses can put up a good performance in a slowish race.

It is also the case that the effort put into winning a slow-run race can be more meritorious than winning a fast-run race. Any athlete will tell you that a stop-go race is far more demanding than one run at a level pace. Athletes train by sprinting for a set distance, then jogging, then sprinting and so on. They do it because to do so is more strenuous than running the same distance at a level pace even though that level pace may be quicker. Is there any reason to believe horses are different?

Making figures in the Europe is very different to the US. Any attempt to link the \'variant\' between races is relatively pointless. For a start the climate is much more changeable and the going can change during the course of a day either through rain falling or the surface drying out. Races are run on anything from hard to heavy ground.

Even if there are no weather considerations to take into account the physical layouts of each track also affect \'variants.\' Most tracks have a straight course (anything up to a mile) and a round course. Only the last 3-4f of each course are common while two tracks, Kempton and Sandown, have totally separate straight courses for sprints. Because of their varied topography UK courses will also have low-lying patches of ground which may be softer than the rest of the course but which do not get raced over in every race.

Finally races in the UK are run in a very different style to the US. As the home stretches are at least 3-4f long (apart from Chester) then having a good position turning in is not so important. Thus, unless there is a confirmed front-runner in the race, the early pace can be moderate and the race more tactical.

Thus, as Mr. Eckhart pointed out, UK figure-makers tend to put more emphasis on the relative merits of the horses rather than on the time or relating the time of the race to that of surrounding races.

George

[Lucy]

\"Since, as has been widely documented, Jerry uses the past efforts of horses to make a variant for each race whereas Ragozin bases variant changes on the \'physical resiliency\' of the surface then I would have thought his point re the differences between the two figures was also pretty accurate. No surprise that you\'d see it as the complete opposite, then.\"


excellent euro recap.
I would extend to you the same constructive criticism I\'d give that guy from the \'hippie school\' --- stick to what you\'re familiar with.

[marcus]

Ok lucy - you got it on snail-mail , now back to work . I\'m heading to Las Vegas for (1 show 9-25) and getting busy etc w/ handicapping , work and rehersals so I\'ll have little time for the nickel and dime extrainious activities. Besides , countering disinformation from people with  questionable agenda\'s is not something anybody finds that gratifying - the betting public and market place will ultimately let their all important opinions be known .
Sounds like there are alot of sore loser\'s over there on your end + the sour grapes in what is being said by you lucy and your people is surely testimony to that .  
 As I\'ve said this before and now I mean it , you can have the last word if you choose too , allright ?
So If you ( or \"your people\" ) get emotional about this stuff it\'s alright , everybody understands - we\'ve all been there ...
I must say however in closing that you do have a sense of humor and can be very witty at times - well at least 1/2 witty anyway ... Best of Racing Luck to you always becouse it sounds like you\'ll need a plethera of it . - marcus



Post Edited (08-27-04 00:48)