7th race -- Belmont -- Sunday

[Socalman3]

Sure i am jinxing myself, but here goes

If the Clement-trained ML 12-1 shot goes off anything close to that (or even as low as 6-1), she looks like an extremely delicious chance today.

First, she has run a number capable of winning this at 10 furlongs (without the benefit of Lasix).  She is in at a low weight.  This is her third race back from the layoff.  She has a proven track record of moving significantly forward third race back and stretching out (compare June to July 2017). Her last work was a rare bullet on the turf around the dogs....tells me that this third try is the wake up try. Lasix still hasn\'t shown up yet in her performance, but is due.  She was 3-1 and 4-1 in two consecutive stakes and is now looking at her odds significantly lengthening, but without fair reason.  She is one of only 3 graded stakes winners in the whole race and the other two are ML Favorite and second choice while she is 12-1.  She was good enough that she ran in 6 consecutive graded stakes races last year.

So, she is an easy bet at 12-1.  The risks -- maybe she cannot handle the 12 furlongs....but that is a question for a lot of these.  She has won at 10 furlongs.  There is a risk that she is not the same horse this year as she was last year. However, that seems counter-balanced by the bullet work which could signal a wake up and her third time\'s charm effort last July.

Good Luck even though I am sure I have ruined it. IF she goes down, it will be with a lot of my money too.