The Haskell Discrepancy...

[JohnTChance]

If you handicapped the Haskell Invitational yesterday using the ThoroGraphs [and had half a brain], there was one horse crying out to be be played on top: LION HEART. The ThoroGraph analysis said he was \"the most likely winner.\" And, to this handicapper at least it was pretty much slam dunk. On the other hand, if you handicapped the race using the Ragozins, you saw a COMPLETELY different story. The differences between the two sheets camps on this race was mind boggling! Without detailing all the discrepancies, suffice it to say that I felt sorry for those who used the Rags here. It was the same feeling I got when VOLPONI won the Breeder\'s Cup Classic a few years back. [Like then, I suspect someone out there in Raggie land will give us the: \'\"well... I know someone who used the Rags and bet VOLPONI\" routine\' here too.] This one was a whopper folks. Be thankful for Jerry\'s numbers.

JohnTChance

P.S. - I wonder who put that early initial $100k on ROCK HARD TEN. Madeline Paulsen\'s boys?

[TGJB]

Last 4 numbers on both, chronological order, omitting fractions--

My Snookie      
Rag 10, 16, 10, 8
TG  6, 9, 4, 0

Pies Prospect    
Rag 4, 11, 7, 7
TG  2, 6(dead rail), 1, 3

Royal A          
Rag 11, 11, 6, 9
TG  6, 6, 3, 3

Lion Heart        
Rag 0, 2, 5, 7 (!!!)
TG  neg 1, 0, 2, neg 1

Rock HT          
Rag 4, 3, 6, 4
TG  1, 1, 4, 1

Wimple            
Rag 7, 8, 8, 5
TG  6, 7, 4, 4

Tap Day          
Rag    11, 8, 6  (only wrote down last 3)
TG      9, 3, 1

SwingforTF        
Rag     7, 7, 7
TG      3, 3, 3



As I have said before, LF is a very good handicapper-- had I been handicapping using Ragozin I also would have thought RHT was better than even money to win, and Wimplestiltskin was the live longshot. Obviously, the single biggest difference (and certainly the most significant) is that they blew the Long Branch (they have it 8 points slower, or about 3-4 off on the respective scales). But it\'s not the only one-- they have the usual regional discrepencies involving the non-NY East coast tracks vs. the West coast. When I made the comment about Wimple\'s management in ROTW I didn\'t know what he looked like on Ragozin, but now I am extremely curious-- they had him as one of the fastest (recently) in the race, facing a LH in declining condition. I wonder if Wimple\'s connections are Ragozin \"clients\"...

[miff]

JB, You may recall that I advised you that there are consistent major discreapancies between the TG#\'s and Rags beyond the 3-4 point normal differential. In this case, it would seem from TG #s, Beyers and Brisnet figs, that the Rags were WAY OFF.If that is the case, consistantly,I wonder how they have such a strong following.I will be in Saratoga for the next two weeks with access to the RAGS which I will compare to my TG sheets. I\'ll let you know what I find.

[TGJB]

If you are going to do this, the right way to do it is to post the Rag numbers here when there are major discrepencies, especially for big races, and especially in advance, so everyone knows we\'re not cherry piching/redboarding (a la you know who). This would be much more useful than saying \" I looked at them for 2 weeks, and my conclusion is...\"

[Silver Charm]

Unbelievable JB how hose, I mean those, no maybe I REALLY DO mean hose guys can charge for this kind of work is beyond me.

PT Barnum was right.

[jbelfior]

TGJB---

Excellent work with the Haskell. I\'m still angry at CC\'s ride on PIE. I think he outkicks \"SNOOKIE\" if he lets the horse run earlier. Not sure why these geniuses think the best way to get a horse to relax is by choking them down.



Good Luck,
Joe B.