Jerardi article in DRF

[grinder]

Here is an interesting excerpt from Jerardi\'s article in the DRF yesterday:

\"Clearly, West Coast did not run his best race to be beaten so soundly,’’ Beyer said. “Mubtaahij, Pavel, and Forever Unbridled finished pretty much in a pack and their figures were all between 99 and 102. This was a race we could project. You could look to those three horses and know within a point or two what they were expected to run. Based on them, we came up with a figure for the winner. We could feel pretty confident Thunder Snow’s winning figure was a 111.The World Cup time was then compared to the UAE Derby’s time. Beyer team member Randy Moss and Beyer himself looked at the data independently and came to the same conclusion on the UAE Derby. Thunder Snow’s time was going to equate to five points faster than Mendelssohn’s. Thus, the 106.

``We would never have published this figure if we were shaky about it,’’ Beyer said.


The figure-making methodology utilized by the Beyer camp for these races does seem vaguely familiar to me. But, I have heard it said that \"imitation is the sincerest form of flattery\".

[Gerard]

Mend   TS   WC   MUB   Rayya   Reride   Seahenge
1/4   25.09   25.75   25.88   26.12   25.33   25.57   26.75
1/2   23.37   24.68   24.59   24.53   23.37   23.49   22.97
3/4   23.41   23.46   23.49   23.49   23.66   23.66   23.78
1m   24.44   23.32   23.43   23.43   25.68   26.35   26.17
Fin   18.875   24.175   24.997   24.881   20.57   19.893   20.075
   115.185   121.385   122.387   122.451   118.61   118.963   119.745

Definitely out of my element here, but I\'d find it difficult to project when both races are going in opposite directions at the end.