Question for Rocky

[Fairmount1]

Rocky,

Have you studied the correlation between Double/P3/P4/etc payoffs and the win odds in the Derby?  

Specifically, I\'m curious if these bizaare win odds from time to time match up in the other pools.  

A horse like 14-1 Patch last year?  Or a horse like Candy Boy who got hammered late to 9-1 in Chrome\'s derby?  And yes, I\'m thinking about Gronk here.  Ie, will he only be overbet in the win pool or will he be way overbet in the multi\'s also?  And to near the same number like we would normally expect in any other race?  Or is the Derby truly different in this regard?

Thanks in advance for any info.

[Fairmount1]

After some thought about info I could use myself, I looked up last year\'s Oaks/Derby Doubles.  

Patch was 17th choice in the Oaks/Derby Double bets with Abel Tasman.  

When Bloodhorse posted the article with will pays on May 5th after the Oaks (Friday evening), Patch was 14-1 in the win pool at that time which is where he where he ended up on Derby Day. Others moved a bit in the win pools but Patch from the 20 hole stayed there.  

Ultimately, that \"dumb\" money likely is only in the win pool (and place/show pools?) on a horse with the media steam or NFL Gronk steam, if interested.  I received a few texts and emails believing this to be true....seems to be accurate.

[Mathcapper]

Richie -- haven\'t really noticed any difference in correlations on big days like the Derby.

In general, the win pool is the most efficient pool but the theory that there\'s a high degree of \"dumb\" money in the win pool on days like the Derby is certainly plausible. I\'ve never taken a deep dive into the Derby to see if it holds water, but I don\'t recall anything anecdotally that\'s stood out over the years. The Patch example from last year was a good one - would\'ve expected to see it in play a little bit there if the theory was valid, but then again it\'s only one data point so can\'t read much into it.

From what I\'ve seen the correlations between the win pools and the Will Pays are just as good on big days as the rest of the year. They might even be a little better on big days, as larger pools tend to be more efficient, and the wisdom of crowds is also more in play. There are of course anomalies from time to time - recall the Palace Malice Belmont Boscar and I posted about awhile back (7-1 in the Will Pays, went off 13-1 on the tote), but that\'s more the exception than the rule.

Regarding the Pk3, Pk4, etc., they\'re less useful a predictor of win odds than the Will Pays because the horse-to-horse variability increases with each successive leg you add (ie. the error compounds).