Kentucky Derby Pool 1

[skitimber]

Was I the only one that thought 11-1 (12-1 with a couple minutes to close) on Good Magic was a great price?  Curious how other bet this.  I bet him to win and under  a few in saver exactas plus an exacta box with Bolt d\'ora in case he progresses or even runs back to his -1.

[ajkreider]

Uncle Mo: scratched
Hansen:   13-1
Shanghai Bobby: not in field
New Years Day:  not in field
Texas Red:      not in field
Nyquist:  2-1
Classic Empire: 7-1

11-1 doesn\'t look like such a good option for the jeuvy winner.

[skitimber]

It was less the Juvy winner than his pattern.  Bolt d\'Oro has a better top, but Great Magic pattern great and Chad Brown, not bad!

[ajkreider]

All true, though these are too lightly raced to divine a pattern for next year.  My point was about any future bet, even on the jeuvy winner, is probably not worth the risk.  Most of those winners don\'t even make the race.

On the pattern, I kind of like the fact that D\'oro went back (which he should have), but not by that much.  Plenty of time to recover, and he has a number that is already fast enough to be the winner - but wouldn\'t touch at 7-1.

[skitimber]

All I\'m hoping for is that the horse stays healthy and goes off at 6-1 or less Derby Day.   Just was curious what others did.  Thanks for the response - speak to you May 5th, late in the day!

[ajkreider]

Good luck.  I think pool 3 has the best return, so I wait until then to bet.  Too many unheard of maidens winners we\'re not even paying attention to yet - e.g. Always Dreaming.  It\'s why the game is so exciting.  Really looking forward to what Sano does next with Santiamen.

[SoCalMan2]

skitimber Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Was I the only one that thought 11-1 (12-1 with a
> couple minutes to close) on Good Magic was a great
> price?  Curious how other bet this.  I bet him to
> win and under  a few in saver exactas plus an
> exacta box with Bolt d\'ora in case he progresses
> or even runs back to his -1.

Solomini

[SoCalMan2]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> skitimber Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Was I the only one that thought 11-1 (12-1 with
> a
> > couple minutes to close) on Good Magic was a
> great
> > price?  Curious how other bet this.  I bet him
> to
> > win and under  a few in saver exactas plus an
> > exacta box with Bolt d\'ora in case he
> progresses
> > or even runs back to his -1.
>
> Solomini

In the last pool, McKinzie was paying $27 and Solomini $46.40.  Notwithstanding comical DQ today in the Cash Call Futurity, Solomini reinforces that he was mispriced in that pool (still a long way to go and one would probably want better odds if they had a choice outside the pool).  Have to say, that DQ today was truly peculiar to me.  One thing I have noticed in California is that Los Alamitos tends to produce the most headscratching stewards\' decisions.  Whoever the guys are there, there is something wrong going on (although, n.b., today\'s decision was a 2-1 vote, so one of them got it right -- too bad only one).