WTF

[johnnym]

Battle of Midway retired healthy.
This early retirement crap really pisses me of.

[Tavasco]

Winstar bought in and some kind of breeding deal early this year. Either before or just after the derby. They had him tabbed as a stallion from the get go. Just turned out he could run fast.

[dsipes]

Anything about Battle of Midway\'s TG pattern anyone wishes to discuss that is educational for future use?

[johnnym]

Lead the way.

[TreadHead]

When it comes to 3yr olds who participate in the classics and give large efforts, I assume by default that they are going to be burnt out and regressing by late summer, and usually can make nice scores playing against horses like Always Dreaming, who the public is still betting based on Derby hype.

To me, the key was the -2 late in the summer, which to me said Midway was actually much better than he was during the triple crown season, and had improved quite a bit since that time.  

The short term pattern was obviously a concern with a decent bounce off that -2, but overall a 3yr old who is doing by far better than he ever has in the last summer/early fall months right before the breeders cup is a positive sign and definitely worth using at long odds as part of a spread in some multi-race wagers.

And obviously the fact that his -2 came over the track was a good sign as well

[richiebee]

How about discussing the Sprint.

Look at the Thoro Pattern for American Pastime.

Then look at the Thoro Pattern for Roy H.

Make sure you are looking at the graphs going into the race, not final numbers
which were today released by TG.

Another interesting case, and one which might be a strong one in support of the
efficacy of the TP, is that World Approval\"s Thoro Pattern called for a 36%
likelihood of an \"Off\" race, which was indeed the result. (WA\'s TP also showed
a 49% chance at a \"Pair\").

I will exit while pointing out one more pattern. Look at Whitmore\'s graph pre
race, which called for a 66% likelihood of an \"x\". Prophecy fulfilled. I\'ve
always been swayed by mass quantities; the sample size for Whitmore\'s \"Dirt 4YO
Oct- Dec X X X\" pattern is 5004. From this dismal pattern, 1% (including
possible rounding) were able to put forth a top effort.

If I were ever going to look seriously at a TP, it might be one like Whitmore\'s
featuring a large starter sample size, and an extreme forecast, ie a number
like Whitmore\'s (probably less than) 1% chance of posting a \"top\" effort.

And what does it say about North American racing that there is such a large
sampling of \"XXX\" runners?

[SoCalMan2]

dsipes Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Anything about Battle of Midway\'s TG pattern
> anyone wishes to discuss that is educational for
> future use?


This horse utterly defeated me.  Three times i took positions against him and he burned me with seemingly inexplicable efforts.  Twice i bet on him and he fired duds.  I was 0-5 with him.  I, too, agree with you.......anybody have an explanation for this horse? His sheet is an enigma to me.  Only thing I can ever come up with is Hollendorfer can often surprise you and you should be prepared for that -- especially when he enters a horse who seemingly doesn\'t belong.

[Bet Twice]

It\'s a tough pattern read.  Big number two back and regressed in last.  Decent spacing coming in to this and is a young healthy horse with a smart trainer so could go either way.  I didn\'t use but didn\'t toss either.  Had the rail not been dead you may have had a different outcome.  As a general rule, I wouldn\'t bet that kind of pattern against horses who are considerably faster.  You can\'t win them all.

[bellsbendboy]

Explanation, sheet an enigma? Trainer can surprise you?

This is one of the pitfalls for dogmatic integer players.

I did not play, or \'cap this race, yet a very good 3yo runs a dynamite race the first Saturday in May, before a brief freshening, then destroys a soft field in the Affirmed at ten cents on the dollar.

Shipped east for a very tough spot, badly blows the break, only time off the board so gets blinkers prior to tour de force over the surface.  Oklahoma trip does not go perfect yet he runs big.  Monster works coming in to this race and yet you want to \"analyze his pattern?  Would offer much more profitable to bet on horses rather than integers.  bbb