Distaff-Classic $2 DD Approximate Payoffs

[Molesap]

Approximate Distaff-Classic $2 DD Will Pays. 6 with…

1. 27.80
2. 524.40
3. 1110.20
4. 616.80
5. 37.40
6. 196.60
7. 293.60
8. 54.00
9. 139.20
10. 361.00
11. 84.60

[johnnym]

Totally forgot about that wager damn

[P-Dub]

And I totally missed the Late P4 ending with the 10th. I thought the P4 ending with the Distaff was the only late P4.

I hit the last 2 Pick 3s. I\'m guessing I would have been able to put a ticket together for the $3450.

I win dumbass of the day. Just ridiculous what I did today.

And I bet FAU -6.5 for a final kick in the teeth.

[TheBull]

Wow my condolences PDub.....FAU had to be one of the sickest beats Ive ever seen, particularly when Kiffin tweets after the game about not covering. Makes you wonder.

[Mathcapper]

Implied Classic odds based on top favorites in Distaff DD Will-Pays matrix:

1 Arrogate.....ML 2/1.....FL 1.7-1
2 War Decree.....ML 30/1.....FL 46-1
3 Win the Space.....ML 30/1.....FL 119-1
4 War Story.....ML 30/1.....FL 71-1
5 Gun Runner.....ML 9/5.....FL 2.3-1
6 Mubtaahij.....ML 12/1.....FL 21-1
7 Churchill.....ML 15/1.....FL 30-1
8 West Coast.....ML 6/1.....FL 4-1
9 Gunnevera.....ML 30/1.....FL 16-1
10 Pavel.....ML 20/1.....FL 38-1
11 Collected.....ML 6/1.....FL 7-1

[Molesap]

Rocky,

If it is not too much trouble or proprietary, what formula do you use for that. I assume you have a correction for the takeout. Thanks.

[Mathcapper]

I drop the entire Will Pays matrix into a pre-formulated spreadsheet and typically use the top 3 favorites from the prior leg to compute the expected odds, so it\'s hard to say exactly, but the basic formula if you\'re just looking at the Will Pays for the winner in the prior leg is:

Leg2 $2 Win Price = 2x($2DD Price / Leg1 $2 Win Price) x ((1-Win Takeout)^2 / (1-DD Takeout))

and the Leg2 odds are just:

Odds Leg2 = (Leg2 $2 Win Price - 2)/2

The basic formula works OK much of the time, but it\'s prone to misleading results if the winner of the prior leg was a longshot or if the horse was not the same price in the doubles as in the win pool, an adverse effect that is amplified because of the fact you\'re only using one horse from the prior leg to compute the expected odds.