Del Mar, BC, and Baffert

[Fairmount1]

On Steve Byk\'s show Tuesday, BB answered some questions about the BC and Del Mar.  

Byk posed a question about a good day (the day before) with Drefong,  Mor Spirit, and Arrogate all sharp getting ready for the BC.  

He replied:  Yeah, they all looked great today so that\'s really a better thing you know.  So, but, we just feel like we\'re all, we\'re heading into this pretty well geared up, I feel like we are coming into it in a good way.  We just have to ship now and so I, I loved it when it was here at Santa Anita, cause I loved just coming out of our stalls and just going to work.  But when you go to Del Mar I don\'t think it is a home advantage there cause it\'s totally different.  It is a different beast down there.  So, we\'re all in the same boat.

Obviously, Baffert has several horses in the BC that will be heavily bet.  After FrankD\'s thoughts on Belmont Day and these comments Tuesday, it made me look a little deeper at Baffert\'s success at Bel, Sar, SA, and Del Mar.  Is there reason to be concerned that his horses won\'t run as well down there?

______________________________

2017 Del Mar Summer Meet Record:  53-12-11-5.  22.6% winners, 8 of those winners in maiden races
Graded Stakes, Del Mar 2017:  12-1-3-2.  8.3% winners

Santa Anita, Graded Stakes over the past year:  48-17-9-6  35.4% winners

His NY record lately is interesting also.  Why would he ship to Belmont and Saratoga for all these graded stakes races?

Saratoga, 2016 and 2017 Total Record:  10-5-2-2.  50% winners
Graded Stakes, Saratoga 2016 and 2017:  8-5-2-1.  62.5% winners

Belmont, 2017 Spring/Summer Meet:  5-4-1-0.  80% winners
Graded Stakes, Belmont, 2017 Spring/Summer Meet:  4-3-1-0.  75% winners.

He also won the Jockey Gold Cup last fall at Belmont with Hoppertunity.  I\'m curious how he fared from a TG perspective in graded stakes at Del Mar compared to those other 3 tracks.  Maybe the seminar will reveal more about betting against some of his heavily bet horses.  

Good luck.

[Silver Charm]

As far as the turf goes there have been grass winning shippers here recently by Clement, Mott and Casse. In Stakes races. The dirt sample might be small because they only recently went back to dirt. I kind of agree with Baffert. And they cleaned up the Milkshake problem they had several years ago also. So maybe that evened some things out....

[johnnym]

I would make him prove me wrong.

[Molesap]

I guess we find out soon enough when the entries are drawn, but anyone else hear the rumor that Mike Smith will ride West Coast and not Arrogate? Hard to believe that is true, but very interesting if it is.

[bellsbendboy]

No real surprise!  bbb

[SteveB]

I saw somewhere that Castellano is riding West Coast.

[Silver Charm]

That makes a lot more sense. Juddmonte is a HUGE account and this was an Eclipse winner last year. Rarely do Jocks bail. Also while Baffert doesnt control Smith he can control his pipeline to his barn. Jumping off this horse here for an up and comer looks bad all around for those involved

[TheBull]

I heard the same....but it was a few weeks ago and it seemed more of a backup plan if Arrogate didnt run. I have not heard anything recently. The sticking pont here may be that there were still some doubts about Arrogate as recently as a few weeks ago. Seems to have worked well since, including a pretty aggressive tightener this morning.