The Phoenix @ Keeneland

[Tavasco]

This race has gotten my interest because it has entries from all over except SoCal shippers. No Bob Baffert Beasts. It could be a wide open affair. It seems imo, virtually all are capable of getting into the verticals on their best effort.

Being a prep for the BC Sprint tells us most of what we need to know about trainer intentions and expectations.

1. Awesome Banner - pace presser part of the turn traffic. I don\'t recognize the trainer but he sure was well backed in the DeFrancis Dash @5/2. I think drawing the one hole compromises his chances.

2. Threefiveindia - This one kept pretty good company in the second half of 2016. Long layoff then Chad Brown brings him back evidently sound and he gets Castellano as his rider. Its not turf but what\'s key to me is Chad has got this one finishing races now. Some positives in his return to top flight competition.

3. Seventh Sense - this one\'s best race doesn\'t stand out because he didn\'t lose any ground. But, he ran a hole in the wind for at least the first one half mile. One of those ouchy horses who run best off a l/o. I don\'t think he\'s headed for the BC but certainly the lead in this heat. How long he lasts ? But 30/1 m/l c/b accurate.

4. Loose On The Town - another who wants to be forwardedly placed but becomes part of the traffic late in the turn. A versatile horse with a huge middle move ran big maybe too big in August. Probably why he\'s in here.

5. Limousine Liberal - at 5/2 a weak favorite imo. Had a great run in KY in May & June but will his affection for CD transfer to Kee. Good timing into this and then the BC. Doesn\'t have to win. Richiebee has more insight into Ben Colebrook than I do, he may, add a thought or two.

6. Richard the Great - We\'ve all seen trainer Stanley Gold bring hot sprinters north and with a modicum of success. Apparently a big step up but his last two efforts say he\'s never been better and may even improve. The price is right.

7. Favorite Tale - I don\'t know what to think about this one. He was good enough in 2015 to have beaten this group today. I\'ll use him in all positions.

8. Uncontested - from the triple crown trail to a second season sprinting. He may appear slow but as a well regarded 3 y/o early in the year Ill tab him as the one to jump up.

9. Mr Manning - Never better but he has drawn outside in what looks more and more like a quarter horse race with a turn. Maybe rider Hernandez can alter his running style to relax early and burst late? Else probably ground loss which he cannot afford.

10. It\'s the Journey - Four wins in a row crushing competion @ LRL may be habit forming. Overlooked at 12/1 but seems a hard hitter to me and seems I should bet him somehow/someway? TBD

11. Whitmore - Usually I don\'t like a late runner in a sprint race, but in this case I think the race sets up for him and he should be the favorite. Franco not as high profile as the bros Ortiz and other NY jockeys but capable.

In Summary
Tri BoX  Whitmore, Richard The Great, Threefiveindia

Favorite Tale - WPS

From what I gleaned a tough card - good luck.

[RICH]

curious if any of the selections are based on the numbers?

[richiebee]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
.
 
> 5. Limousine Liberal - at 5/2 a weak favorite imo.
> Had a great run in KY in May & June but will his
> affection for CD transfer to Kee. Good timing into
> this and then the BC. Doesn\'t have to win.
> Richiebee has more insight into Ben Colebrook than
> I do, he may, add a thought or two.

Can\'t help much here Tavasco other than to point out that Limo has at least one
good race in Lexington, dropping a tough decision to AP Indian I think in the
Fall of 2015.

Won\'t be betting today. I wish I could say that I was sitting out in reaction
to algorithm driven whales, juicy trainers, or Keeneland\'s unfortunate decision
to takeout at the maximum level allowed by law, but the truth is much less
dramatic--have to punch a clock today.

I drew Frank out of his fortress of solitude so that he might comment on my
\"olde school\" affinity for postage stamps, land lines and writing checks; later
I will try to draw a comment from the erstwhile Jimbo by declaring my love for
a runner on Saturday\'s card who comes up oh so slow on the numbers.

Good luck today.

[Tavasco]

RICH asks... \"If my selections are based on the numbers?\"

Yes

I use a previous race TG final time Performance # as a basis, usually the contenders best # at today\'s race distance. then I adjust the basis # by today\'s  weight and projected ground loss. Then I discard contenders based on individual running style and pace #\'s of my own making. Then I analysis the internal fractions and energy distribution looking for changes that I discern disclose a horses changing condition or form.

for example I would not consider the CB entry as contentious if his late pace #\'s had not recently skyrocketed as I noted. The cause of this phenomena puzzles me but I consider it significant.

I also use the computer program I wrote to analyze the trend line, function(x) which I didn\'t consider in this race because of its competitiveness.

In what I see as a competitive race, in the end each of my three choices have a %e of less than 50% and I think that will be the difference maker late in the stretch.

I don\'t consider a 1/4 point move meaningful but I do consider some factors we don\'t usually associate with numbers, i.e. CB & JC win a large # $\'s. So again my read is that todays race is very competitive for at least the first half mile and some less tangible factors (such as trip ground loss & traffic [jockey]) will be crucial.

I have not looked at the TG analysis for this race but I do know from past experience that my reads often coincide with \"the experts.\" fwiw which I attribute to the number produced by the formula Potential = Probability * Reward.

[ajkreider]

Didn\'t play it, but was a bit shocked at the payouts of the exacta and tri - $150 and over $400, respectively. All three were very find-able (just not by me).

[Tavasco]

ajkreider posted:

\"Didn\'t play it, but was a bit shocked at the payouts of the exacta and tri - $150 and over $400, respectively. All three were very find-able (just not by me).\"


I was surprised to see the betting public make #2 Threefiveindia the second choice and indeed he ran a solid race.

While I thought most all of the entries (sans a couple) could (on their best) get a piece of the tri, Awesome Banner really surprised me, both his start and finish. I guess today\'s race was the one someone expected when he got bet down @ Laurel. Trainer Kenneth Decker is no longer off my radar.

AJ: you contend Awesome Banner was very find-able any hints on that angle? or is this a case of - as they say \"Lessons cost extra\"

OH and for the 3rd shift - again we got to see Winx win ridiculously easy, this time at a 1m+1/4 as she points to the 2M Caulfield Cup I guess.

Race Video

[ajkreider]

I\'m sure some of it is the 20/20 thing, but AB had the co-best figure in the field.  It was recent enough and long enough ago (May) to make it both relevant and give him time to recover - which he needs since he sometimes bounces big.  

I know you didn\'t like the post, but I always upgrade inside runners in sprints.  They almost always have enough speed to clear if asked, and then they\'re saving a couple of lengths on everybody.

Even looking just at PPs, he\'s kept good enough company to hit the board with these.  Wouldn\'t have had him on top, but at 16-1 to fill out the tri?

[TGJB]

At some point someone will mention the dead rail mark next to his previous race, right? I bet the horse, and without that there was no reason to like him.