The Sincerest Form Of Flattery

Started by Tavasco, July 02, 2017, 12:26:52 PM

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Tavasco

Is said to be -  Imitation.

Furthermore \"All Life is six to five against.-- Damon Runyon (I read that in yesterday\'s bridge column).

Six To Five just happens to be the morning line of Diamondsandpearls in the 2nd race Sunday at Santa Anita. The heat is a Maiden Allowance for two year old fillies.

Imitation is of interest to me because 4 of the six starters have recently worked out in :47 and change. Remembering these are mostly never raced two year old fillies.

#1 Dancing Belle
A Desormeaux trainee by First Samurai out of London Mist whose success was all in route races. She\'s 0/1 and 30/1 m/l does not seem unreasonable.

#2 Factorize
I like this one for a myriad of reasons. She is owned by Altamira racing. The Alta Mira Hotel in Sausalito is one of my favorite hotels and not just because I once honeymooned there. The scenic restaurant is famous for their world class Ramos Fizzes & Eggs Benedict. More to the point - trainer Peter Miller is good with young horses. By The Factor (who has become a noteworthy sire) out of Coteau Kitten (who was precocious and accomplished @ two). This one has been quick on the training track from the get go. A M/L of 7/2 is the 3rd choice and appears capable.

#3 DiamondsandPearls
A Bob Baffert trainee. Need I say more! The 6/5 morning line favorite. A sub :48 worker. Purchased for $1.7M @ MarOBS 2 y/o\'s in training. By Congrats out of unraced Azalea Belle (no 2 y/o winners) Oh Yeah, Mike Smith up.

#4 Call Betsy
For those unfamiliar with California racing. Jeff Bonde is (imho) a dependable trainer. He is not the celebrity of the big names. He has a lot of claiming stock. This filly demonstrated her abilities in the morning late last month. My read is that she\'s been Idling since. Sire Flat out is proven. The Dam Queen\'s song is unaccomplished. M/L 5/1 has some value to me as I expect this one to hit the board.

#5 MondayMorningBlue
Is an odd entry and may scratch. Last out this filly scratched (a part of an uncoupled entry) from a full field and probably avoided being crushed by winner Spectator. Previous to that scratched as part of an uncoupled entry while the other Miller entry won the race. An enigma 5/2 m/l adds to the puzzle.

#6 Streetwithnoname
The last of the sub :48 workers. Bred by and then bought from Godolphin. Out of a first time Dam of no distinction. I think it is worthy of note that young star rider F. Prat is 1 for 27 on first time starters. M/L of 6/1 Not inconceivable to me this one might get into the bottom of the trifecta which would help it some. On the other hand the Jockey is due to win another?

Assuming 6/5 m/l holds am I better off BBB (Betting Bob Baffert) or dutching the othe three :47+ workers resulting in approximately 6/5? Roughly 60 minutes to solve this problem

Remember BB has had only the time since purchase in March to train and treat this filly.

Tavasco

Of the 4 fillies that had previously worked fast. The Baffert made shambles of them. One vanned off. The other two run off their feet to finish at the rear.

The 2nd and 3rd place finisher had both raced previously and while I thought each was dubious neither had made the mistake of \"working like Baffert.\"

Apparently BB\'s magic doesn\'t take long to take effect. Of course a filly which sells for $1.7M must have some inate ability and probably a lot.

Opened at 1/9 ended up 1/2 - sheesh.