Even? No Less.

[T Severini]

hellersorr Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t like CMM\'s post, either, for the following
> reason:  I\'ve seen too many horses in the outside
> post break out.  Johnny V surely won\'t want CE,
> breaking right next to AD, lapped on top of AD, so
> Johnny\'s gonna go.  If CMM breaks out at the start
> and Johnny\'s going, AD\'s on the lead and CMM is
> being hard-used to overcome breaking out.
>
> Doesn\'t have to happen this way; CMM could rocket
> out of the gate straight as a non-North Korean
> missile.  But I do hate betting the outside
> horse.
>
> (Apologies for a sheets content-free posting.)


Which is quickest and more inclined to go is the issue for me. \"Ahhh said the blind man\". It\'s not a two horse pace scenario for me anymore though. There\'s a third that probabilities say will play a key Pace role.

Not sure what Beyer has projected to so confidently toss the favorite, but you have to respect that kind of courage/conviction. Though steadfast, he ran on the best part of the track last but then he figures to find the best part again and then it will come down to the quality of the others not compromised by the wrong path.

They\'ve taken some time with him. Note the white sheet. Its a different era now and that\'s a reason I favored him in the Derby, but he is a smallish horse, though put together well for distance. Still whether his size is ideal or not in coming back like this when they have clearly wanted time before. How he handles a cut block out of the gate no one knows either. Then there is the issue of the Derby track. I won\'t however be factoring bounce. The other factor that could etch his starch is genuinely having to work at staying close. He\'s had things very much his own way.

I won\'t be as brave as Beyer, I\'ll have a graduated ticket hoping he misses out of as much as I can beat him

[sekrah]

Just curious because I respect your opinion, but what reason are you not viewing it that way?

[boardedup]

I\'ll use him marginally, the whole don\'t get beat by the fastest horse thing.. but much like CC, I\'m not convinced that he\'s that good Johnny?  Yes he\'s run fast, but to me he/they are needing those in front to falter.  And I personally don\'t think that happens. I don\'t see all three of the front running/pressing horses I mentioned previously giving up the ghost late.  

He\'s ran \"decent\" with trouble/excuses in his last two and has been beaten like a combined ~ 16 lengths or so?(not sure of the exact #)   I go back to what Sano said after the FL Derby,\"... he finished strong but the horses in the front weren\'t stopping...\"  to me, that\'s the story of this one.

[Bet Twice]

Certainly possible but tough to see him getting back to that with two weeks rest.  If he was fully recovered from the effort in the FD I would have expected  a better performance in the KD, and I realize he didn\'t have the best of trips.  Hard to see the two weeks making a difference.  Just my read.

[Mc990]

It\'s certainly a risk playing him to get back to his top but to me the price will be right. As Sekrah mentioned, he seems the clear value. The horse was live on the tote 2 weeks ago and now he seems an afterthought.... At 12-1 I don\'t need to look that hard to find excuses for his last 2.

[johnnym]

I believe he never got hold of the track Derby day.
Watched the replay several times, to me he looked like he was climbing the whole way down the opening 1/4 mile.
Furthermore JJ had the rail with him, then for some reason after the first turn decided to go 3/4w if he sat on the rail he would of had the same trip as LAL just in front of him.

[jimbo66]

Gunnevara ran the big number back in February.  Before the Florida Derby, I (and others) thought he was a bet against in the Florida Derby because he didn\'t need the points, might not be fully cranked and might regress a bit off the big number.

So when he lost the Florida Derby, it was no surprise to me.  But as I posted at that time, the way he lost was a big concern.  He didn\'t have a Monarchos type run where he ran well but came up a bit short.  He showed zero run the entire race, barely going by a few distance challenged horses in very late stretch and never really being in the race.  Some people defended the run because of the way the pace held up, but for me it was a HORRENDOUS race and there was no way you could  play this horse in the Derby.  Horses don\'t run big in the derby off of non-efforts in their prior races.  

So, MAYBE Gunnevara moved forward a tiny bit in the Derby.  I say \"maybe\" because there is at least a fair question as to whether TGJB has the derby a point or so fast, but even if the figure is exactly right, the tiny move forward doesn\'t seem like a portender of a return to his top, especially off of only 2 weeks of rest.  Javier certainly doesn\'t think so.  After calling this horse a derby winner in February, Castellano is abandoning ship pretty quickly for another longshot (who i think has a good shot).  

The Florida Derby was a sign to \"stick a fork\" in Gunnevara in his current form cycle.  Think he stays that way until maybe a freshening and summer campaign.

But hey, the price will be right, so can\'t fault anybody or trying.  Personally, would rather take a similar price on horses \"on their way up\" and not \"over the top\".  Conquest Mo Money and Cloud Computing seem to fit that bill for me.  With Classic Empire being the horse to beat if you don\'t like the favorite.  

Will be structuring my pick-4 and pick-5 tickets with 60% to CE and 20% each to Conquest Mo Money and Cloud Computing.  

Good luck

Jim

[johnnym]

I\'m expecting CC to be less that 10-1 at post time
While I expect Gunny to be closer to 20-1

[johnnym]

Early line AD is 1-5 CE 5-1 CC 24-1

Good luck

[mjellish]

I don\'t see him cycling back to that top off 2 weeks rest.  

To me, in order to view his line that way you would have to say he bounced in the FL Derby off the big effort and then didn\'t like the track on Derby day.  That is certainly possible, and the price will be right.  Can\'t fault anyone for looking it at that way.  But I view his line as being more over the top and he\'s not likely to get a strong pace to run at here.  He\'s already outrun his breeding IMO.  

So even at the price I have to pass and let him beat me.