oaks

[touchgold]

1. Ever So Clever Luis Contreras 20-1
 2. Lockdown Jose Ortiz 20-1
 3. Mopotism Mario Gutierrez 20-1
 4. Paradise Woods Flavien Prat 5-2
 5. Jordan's Henny Joe Rocco Jr. 30-1
 6. Vexatious Kent Desormeaux 20-1
 7. Farrell Channing Hill 5-1
 8. Sailor's Valentine Corey Lanerie 30-1
 9. Wicked Lick Brian Hernandez Jr. 30-1
10. Miss Sky Warrior Paco Lopez 9-2
11. Tequilita Luis Saez 20-1
12. Daddys Lil Darling Julien Leparoux 20-1
13. Abel Tasman Mike Smith 5-1
14. Salty Joel Rosario 6-1
AE-15. Summer Luck Javier Castellano 30-1

[toppled]

I\'ve been looking at the Oaks for the Oaks/Derby double and obviously the 2 fastest horses are the 2 favorites (assuming they don\'t bounce), but there\'s a big question how they\'ll do on a wet track. Paradise Woods is by a 9% wet track sire, but she has a winning wet sibling who won twice on wet surfaces.  Tough call.  Miss Sky Warrior\'s sire is a much better 17% on wet, but her siblings are a total mixed bag. Combined they are a total 5 for 61 on wet tracks with 4 winners out of 9.  

Now to the bomb who could upset the apple cart and shock the Oaks on a wet track.  Lockdown was last seen losing by 13 lengths to Miss Sky Warrior in the Gazelle.  Half the field is faster than her on TG sheets.  That\'s the bad news.  The good news is she\'s never regressed in any of 4 her starts, but more importantly she has won on a \"good\" Aqueduct surface. Counting her, her mare has produced 3 wet track winners who are a perfect 4 for 4 on wet tracks, including her full sibling, stakes winner Close Hatches, a 2 time winner on wet tracks who ran a -2.5 on a wet track, her fastest TG #.

I don\'t know if Lockdown is fast enough to win this, but she\'s got the best shot to move up more than others on a wet track.  I\'ll definitely be boxing her with Paradise Woods & Miss Sky Warrior in exactas. At 20/1 ML, a token win bet on her will be part of my Oaks agenda.

[jimbo66]

Toppled,

I think you have a lot more to worry about with the oaks than the possible wet track.

Your read on the two favorites seems way off.  Yes, the favorites are the two fastest horses.  How likely is either horse to run to that number.  I would say neither is too likely.  The california horse was a huge top.  Playing horses off tops that big in competitive fields at 8-5 or thereabouts is bad gambling, win or lose.  

As for Miss SKy Warrior, she is a tougher read.  First off, she goes off 9-2 and not 8-5 so that matters.  Second off, the top is not as big.  The third part that is tricky is that depending who you talk to, she earned that last number on a big time speed biased track.  (I would be in that camp, in a rare time I want to agree with Andy Serling).  Apparently one of the bigger bias figure makers has that track neutral, but I don\'t know what they were looking at.  So what do you do with a number that is a couple point top earned on a biased track.  The 4th tricky part about Miss Sky Warrior is the pace scenario.  Seems to me the favorite sends, lockdown may send, mopotism may send, jordan\'s henny may send, Farrell may send and they are all inside Miss Sky Warrior.  

Haven\'t seen the final sheets yet as I don\'t think they are out, but I will be looking for a reason to play Salty or abel tasman.  I know they are outside, but with drop to last type styles, I don\'t think they lose ground on the 1st turn and the pace looks fast to me.  I will stand by my view Miss Sky Warrior isn\'t a distance horse in a competitive race (tough to do when she has won twice at 1 1/8 but they were weak races and non-contested trips up front, which isn\'t happening Friday.).   And the favorite may bounce.  That leaves the two outside horses, pending a review of the final sheets.

Good luck

Jim

[toppled]

Jim,

You\'ve definitely made some good points to ponder over.  Since the two favorites ran #s 3-4 points faster than the rest of the field, I have to think defensively in not totally tossing them. I may add 2-3 more horses to my exacta before the race is run. Getting back to the big 2, one may bounce & one might not.  Even if they do go backwards, the rest of the field starts out much slower. We don\'t know how good Paradise Woods is yet.  She\'s moved forward in leaps & bounds in 3 races and her connections have always been extremely high on her, as evidenced by her TC nomination. She might just be this good.  She hasn\'t regressed yet. If there\'s a superstar in this race, it very well could be her.   I\'d be more inclined to take a negative stand against Miss Sky Warrior.  She\'s more likely to get a wide trip with several speeds inside of her.  Also, Breen\'s G1 record leaves a lot to be desired. I\'ll be interested in Jerry\'s opinion of these 2 since both of them have Thoro-Patterns that are not indicative of a bounce.  When you get all the sheets, look how different their T-Ps are to Irish War Cry\'s.  

If you\'re counting on the top 2 bouncing big, Salty & Abel Tasman have decent enough sheets to play them, but if you plan on them dropping way back, they could end up with wide trips that cost them the race. I\'ll wait to see how the track is playing Friday before finalizing any decisions, but if it\'s wet, Lockdown, who figures to get a good mid-pack trip, will be my key. I don\'t see her being sent to maintain any front running position-she\'ll break well, get inside then let about 5 fillies go by her and sit a good trip.  I\'ll trust Jose to make his move at the right time & not get boxed in and have to check.

[johnnym]

Wasnt Miss Sky warriors last race run the same day as the Wood?
Jerry said he was not sure of those numbers that day for IWC so is this the case with MSW?

[TGJB]

I had the track getting slower. That race was a big reason why. Even the way I did it, everyone after the top 2 ran an X. If you make the winner slower it gets even worse, which made no sense with stake horses, who run few X\'s. It will take a bunch out of that race and the Wood running back before I\'ll know for sure if I got it right.

[P-Dub]

Jimbo,
 
 Agree with your assessment. Lots of pace suggests
 looking for a horse from off the pace.
 
 I\'ll try and beat the favorite after the big jump
 last race. I think Miss Sky Warrior has a decent
 looking sheet. She ran a big one last October,
 reacted to that, then ran a good one to end the
 year. Her first out this year matched that
 secondary top and she went forward last out to a
 nice figure. Did the bias help her, did she get an
 easy trip, etc... Don\'t know, but if she\'s around
 her ML she may be the play for me as of now.
 
 Abel Tasman has the right running style, ran a
 really good one 2 back but backed up a bit last
 time. Not quite sure how to read that I\'ll let JB
 help me out with the seminar. Also benefits from
 having the greatest of all time guiding her around  the track.
 
 There are a few others that are a little slower,
 and I\'m not sure if any of them move forward
 enough to challenge. Need to do a bit more work looking at off track pedigree and TGI index.
 
 I\'ll let JB\'s seminar provide a bit more clarity
 for me.

[trwhis2]

Honest question about PW.

That big jump is first time around 2 turns. She\'s clearly not a 5.5F horse. Doesn\'t that have to factor into your assessment?

I\'d much rather take my chance on her compared to Miss Sky Warrior. Breen\'s stats at CD are bad at best. 2/3 of his runners X at CD. Off a big new top, seems almost a certainty for this one.

[jimbo66]

Fair question,

But PW is off a 5 point top that personally looks to me like it should be even bigger.

Whereas Miss Sky WArrior has the nice 2 year old figure, lots of races/foundation and the top is smaller.  

The problem with your view is that one is going to be 8-5 and one is going to be 9-2.

That is a big difference in price.  I wouldn\'t characterize them as \"the two favorites\".  Paradise Woods is going to be a significant favorite.

Jim

[Strike]

toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'ve been looking at the Oaks for the Oaks/Derby
> double and obviously the 2 fastest horses are the
> 2 favorites (assuming they don\'t bounce), but
> there\'s a big question how they\'ll do on a wet
> track. Paradise Woods is by a 9% wet track sire,
> but she has a winning wet sibling who won twice on
> wet surfaces.  Tough call.  Miss Sky Warrior\'s
> sire is a much better 17% on wet, but her siblings
> are a total mixed bag. Combined they are a total 5
> for 61 on wet tracks with 4 winners out of 9.  
>
> Now to the bomb who could upset the apple cart and
> shock the Oaks on a wet track.  Lockdown was last
> seen losing by 13 lengths to Miss Sky Warrior in
> the Gazelle.  Half the field is faster than her on
> TG sheets.  That\'s the bad news.  The good news is
> she\'s never regressed in any of 4 her starts, but
> more importantly she has won on a \"good\" Aqueduct
> surface. Counting her, her mare has produced 3 wet
> track winners who are a perfect 4 for 4 on wet
> tracks, including her full sibling, stakes winner
> Close Hatches, a 2 time winner on wet tracks who
> ran a -2.5 on a wet track, her fastest TG #.
>
> I don\'t know if Lockdown is fast enough to win
> this, but she\'s got the best shot to move up more
> than others on a wet track.  I\'ll definitely be
> boxing her with Paradise Woods & Miss Sky Warrior
> in exactas. At 20/1 ML, a token win bet on her
> will be part of my Oaks agenda.

Lockdown -- look at the major \"wet\" sires in her pedigree --

Mr Prospector
Storm Cat
In Reality !
Fappiano
Unbridled
Unbridled\'s Song

I know this is a numbers/pattern forum but hard to ignore at 20-1. I won\'t.