Thunder Snow

[atakante]

Anybody know what the latest shipping plan of the connections is?  Is this colt heading to CD for sure?  Will it work there?

[Wamsutta]

Appears to still be undecided.

http://www.attheraces.com/news/2017/April/14/classic-options-open-for-uae-derby-hero-thunder-snow

[Wamsutta]

He\'s an interesting horse ... in whichever of the 3 races he goes in, and all 3 of them are pretty open, he won\'t be better than the 3rd or 4th choice at most, but yet has to be taken seriously. Others will have faster TG figures, but his sheet looks progressive and open to further improvement, he looks sure to stay, and has won in the mud (and on soft turf if he goes for the Guineas).

Another thing to keep an eye on, bin Suroor, after a down year last year with his yard virus-afflicted, has made a flying start to this season, 12-30 (40%) in 2017 so far in Britain, but since the start of the turf season April 1 (and the end of the Dubai season, where he was 63-15-3-9 – par for the course when you train for Godolphin in Dubai) he was 15-7-4-3 before Saturday\'s all-weather races.

[atakante]

I\'m also considering him mainly for the exotics, but he\'s not that far off from this bunch so with a good trip anything can happen.

[Wamsutta]

Latest is that he\'ll be a \"late call\". http://www.attheraces.com/news/2017/April/26/thunder-snow-target-to-be-a-late-call-by-sheikh-mohammed

One would have expected that the result of the Greenham Stakes last Saturday, where Godolphin ran 1-2 well clear of the rest, and the winner in particular looked a good hope for the Guineas, would encourage him toward shipping Thunder Snow over for the Derby.

[SoCalMan2]

atakante Wrote:
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> I\'m also considering him mainly for the exotics,
> but he\'s not that far off from this bunch so with
> a good trip anything can happen.

He is not so far off as international horses often are PLUS he has an outstanding pattern in my view as I view his line as one long series of development with no real reaction points PLUS he could easily be first lasix.

If I recall correctly (and this could be false attribution), Len Friedman used to say that if a horse has not given you a bounce yet, then do not give the horse a bounce.  This horse fits in that group PLUS he is first lasix.  I would project him to run a new lifetime top that would be good enough to be relevant so long as not squandered on trip.

[SteveB]

It appears that Thunder Snow will arrive at Churchill Downs on Sunday flying from Dubai to Cincy and vanning in to Churchill Downs. He supposedly is definite to run in the Derby from what I saw on Twitter.

[Wamsutta]

Well, I hope you are right about that as he didn\'t move off of 24.5-1 after the Greenham, so I put a small wager on him. But why would he still be in Dubai? Surely if there was a serious chance of him running in the Guineas, he would have gone to Newmarket with the rest of bin Suroor\'s string (?)

[Wrongly]

Girvin wearing Z-bar shoes and TS still scheduled to arrive Sunday with a work on Tues. per DRF - http://www.drf.com/news/girvin-wearing-z-bar-shoes-final-derby-work-delayed-saturday

[BitPlayer]

I don\'t understand why trainers are so secretive about the condition of their horses:

http://www.drf.com/news/girvin-wearing-z-bar-shoes-final-derby-work-delayed-saturday

It\'s not like the NFL, where you might get an edge by keeping the opposition guessing. If a potential sale is in the works, wouldn\'t the buyer have someone look at the horse\'s feet?

[Strike]

BitPlayer Wrote:
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> I don\'t understand why trainers are so secretive
> about the condition of their horses:
>
> http://www.drf.com/news/girvin-wearing-z-bar-shoes
> -final-derby-work-delayed-saturday
>
> It\'s not like the NFL, where you might get an edge
> by keeping the opposition guessing. If a potential
> sale is in the works, wouldn\'t the buyer have
> someone look at the horse\'s feet?

It is funny (to me) that we have all of this additional information as so many eyes are on the horses since it is the KY Derby and yet all of this additional information does not make the handicapping any easier. Even in an ordinary Grade 1 race only a handful of observers would note the Z-bar shoes for workouts and know the horse doesn\'t run in a race with the same type of shoes.

I can see several reasons why Sharp is being evasive and secretive. The first is (I believe) this is his first horse to compete on this type of stage -- he is a rookie -- and doesn\'t realize or care jockeys and connections with horses on the bubble care very much. Another could be the horse has hoof problems that he is trying to take care of out of the glare of observers (not working Joe). Z-bar shoes definitely indicate a problem. And, finally possibly a sale is on the horizon and he doesn\'t want to risk a further injury until a sale is completed.

All speculation.

[Airnate012]

He\'s scheduled to work Saturday at Keeneland...we\'ll see how he looks. It\'s definitely not a positive this close to the biggest race of his career.

[Wrongly]

Bloodhorse confirmed that Girvin had HBOT treatment.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/221216/sharp-girvin-still-on-track-for-kentucky-derby

[Strike]

Wrongly Wrote:
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> Bloodhorse confirmed that Girvin had HBOT
> treatment.
>
> http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/22
> 1216/sharp-girvin-still-on-track-for-kentucky-derb
> y


It appears they are in a hurry to fix an injury in the hoof area. Again, just a guess but Sharp is not very forthcoming. A big (and easy) toss for me.