Arkansas Derby

[Leamas57]

As crazy as it sounds, sometimes it easier to pick a horse to run third then it is to pick it to win. I like Malagacy to run third with Classical Empire, Silver Dust and Untrapped on top.

SD is going to run big--probably hit the exacta.  He will then go on to run a huge derby.

Leamas

[sekrah]

My Arkansas Derby thoughts:

- I\'ve seen much worse 8/5 shots to bet against than Classic Empire.  Clearly the fastest two-turn horse in the field with no real \"Sheets reason\" for him not to fire a good one today.  8/5 might not be great for him in such a large field, but if I saw a horse like this at 5/2 or 3-1 I\'d be hitting with both fists and be happy with my position.

-  I would rate Rockin Rudy more positively than you did. Horse was a lightning flash as a two year old and really had no business running on turf. Both sides of breeding were better at longer distance, and O\'Neill can be scary in these kind of spots. Tail end of exotics use.

- I\'m more negative on Petrov and Sonneteer than you.  Petrov doesn\'t look like he wants any more distance than he\'s already run and how much development can Sonneteer have left after all the work he\'s done the past 6 months?  

- The Asmussen pair look most dangerous to springing the upset.  Lookin at Lee looks like he has an explosive move forward due and is live here, but I probably prefer the one Mike Smith is.  Asmussen is winning 20% with both jockeys, but check out the difference Top%-Pair%-Off%-X% with Asmussen/Contreras and Asmussen/Smith.  Who do you think Asmussen likes?

I think Classic Empire and Untrapped have north of 50% of the probability to win this race, throw in some chance for that fast Pletcher horse and making a win bet spread on those 10-1 to 15-1s a dire proposition. It\'d be better to find one you really like and play it by itself.



Good luck.