Tampa stakes pick 5

[FrankD.]

As the clocks spring ahead this evening maybe this DEAD board will awaken with a bit of Derby fever?

Kudos to Tampa management for a 15% take out all stakes wager and their pick 4 is only an 18% takeout as well. They set a wagering record on Sam Davis day, I\'m sure a new level will be set today as well.

Columbia:
Two outside horses both moving in the correct direction but Frenchy and Johnny V out there on the green aren\'t for me. It\'s the Ortiz brothers with Profiteer & Tiz a Slam for the top spot.

Challenger:
Stanford an obvious single many places but he has disappointed at odds on before, blinkers on for a 5 yr old in his 15th start? Amy\'s Flatter and Adirondack King will get most of the ticket, Stanford used defensively.

Florida Oaks:
I though about La Coronel as a single, the numbers concur BUT Casse horrific with stakes routers off the bench 60 plus.Super Marina, Fifty Five and Compelled all will be used.

Hillsborough:
Dickinson was intended to be on the engine in his last, Paco surprised everyone mostly KM taking back. He won\'t let Isabella go out all alone today,Lot\'s of Lex will want a part of it as well. Here come the vultures!!!! Elise\'s World & My Impression flying down the lane, these two on top hopefully at square numbers?

Tampa Derby:
A lot of Derby points up for some pretty ordinary 3 year olds so far? I made a pretty good bet on Tapwrit in the Sam Davis, Jose got stuck inside, shook lose made a decent run but Mccracken was in no danger. He was almost 10/1 that day, no thank you at 2/1 today in a tight by the numbers pack. Wild Shot bounces to the moon, State of Honor had nothing 2nd off the bench on a day when the speed horses held well and No Dozing comes out of the Remsen which has become as far away from a key race as you could get!

Tale of Silence, The Money Maker, Basha, Beasley & Sonic Mule as there is no reason at all not to take some price shots in this tight by the numbers group.

The Jimbo (on full tilt) Cave Man ticket is 2 x 3 x 4 x 2 x 5 = $240 for a buck and we\'ll play it a bit more than that with a few price presses.
When opportunity knocks?

Good luck,

Frank D.

[BitPlayer]

I have been hearing all this chatter about the Remsen being a negative key race.  Does the \"key race\" concept fit with TG methodology?  Rather than treat the Remsen as a negative key race, I am inclined to either add a couple points to the numbers that TG assigned or just ignore those figures altogether.  The figures that No Dozing ran before the Remsen make him a fit here, at perhaps a longer price than the favorites. Rather than the Remsen, my biggest concerns are the clunker he ran in the Sam Davis and whether he is willing to run inside.

[richiebee]

Bit:

I am not sure about the whole notion of a \"negative key race\" based on the subsequent performances of runners, but will note that only one runner in the Remsen, No Dozing, was a multiple winner.

So you had a 300k, Grade II stake where 9 of 10 starters were eligible for a NW2LT condition.

That being said, I will be plunking a few drachmas on Tale of Silence, a full bro to Tale of Ekati, assuming I can get double digit odds.

If Tapwrit wins impressively it sets up an interesting scenario because neither TAP nor Tapit have enjoyed much Derby success.

[P-Dub]

Great job Frank. I\'m at Santa Anita this weekend, so any thoughts there would be nice.

[FrankD.]

Paul,

Find a way to beat Masochistic & Midnight Storm in the million dollar guaranteed pick 4 and we can get paid!

In the words of Rocco Lampone in the Godfather when Michael wanted to have Hiram Roth\'s plane met at the airport \"Difficult but not Impossible\"

FD

[P-Dub]

Godfather references are always good.

[phil23]

Godfather reference superb.

I wanted to play Wild Shot reasonably heavy here but that post...ugh. Can\'t say a word against your other three for this Frank. Have to think the Mule gets bet as well as TAP\'s fave.  

Let\'s beat them both out of the tri.

[Tavasco]

Unfortunately Wild Shot will probably get a ground losing trip trip similar to his Sam Davis effort. I do think he doesn\'t have to bounce and in fact could move forward. The horse was very game in his last but @ 5/1 m/l doesn\'t seem like value.

In a race which looks like there will be a group attending the pace I\'m thinking Basha as well as Tale of Silence are under the radar here and will be the keys to the vertical payoffs.

So since sometimes there is value in the contrary view and  I don\'t care to be caught dozing I\'ll take a shot with ebx Wild Shot/Tale of Silence/Basha/No Dozing.