Filly & Mare Turf

[Silver Charm]

The morning line on Lady Eli is wrong. She isn\'t going to be 5/2 and more like 3/2 or even 7/5. I agree with the analysis on the top candidates and the race shape.

There was a very interesting statistic for Brown 3rd race off a layoff. So here is Lady Eli, maybe sitting g on a new Top, or is she? For certain her stretch burst is tough to beat and with the traffic she could lose ground. But Irad is pretty good at not getting blocked. Even if he has to move early.

Sentiero has lost to Lady Eli 3 times. But the margin now is less than a length. Her late starting campaign was pointing for this. She needs to get back to her Top. And there is a 50-50 chance she will or even improve. There is a 40% chance Lady Eli could back up. I\'m playing the percentages and odds. Sentiero is very playable at double digits odds....