TR stats - is it redboarding if you lose?

[shanahan]

Gotta hand it to the TR stats.  If you only use for \"last 90 days tops\", you miss the boat, particularly on 2YO.
At KEE yesterday, the $89 winner in race 7 particularly intrigued for two reason:
1.  last 90 days of course, but also...
2.  Turf to Dirt.

OK, not that big a deal you say...BUT the 8 was sure to bounce, and no chance at all for the 1 nor 3. You only now have a 6 horse field, and only 3 TR with any bold type.  
At that point I\'m in the pick 4 and 2/3 of a pik 3.  then \"poof\" - the race I posted as ROTW blows me up.  Not only blows me up but I didn\'t have either of the top 2.

[jbelfior]

Another turf to dirt angle yesterday at Keenland was Malibu Stacy--$276 exacta under a 2-1 shot.

Has always been an interesting handicapping angle however without any stats it\'s hard to say whether we tend to mention it only when it pans out. It may be no better than routes to sprints or vice versa or any other angle.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[FrankD.]

Guys,

Ex Post Facto one can usually find a reason to bet a horse. The $89 winner I\'m sorry I can\'t.

He took 7 tries to break his maiden, got beat in a MDN 30K at Churchill in his sixth try. There were 5 other horses that have run 2-5 points faster than he ever had several times. Even considering his 34% top per thoro pattern last 90 and turf to dirt the ROI is negative and with a rider who is 10% for the trainer in a 260 horse sample.

Shanny I could have bet the 3 (I didn\'t) a million times more than the winner.
!st time dirt by a sire that is 3 points faster on dirt than turf, 2 points faster than plastic, a forward moving pattern and Noble Bird and Brother Pat on the dams side with 4 & 5\'s routing at 3.

Sorry guys I could never find a reason to bet this horse yesterday and as I stated pre race for Gettysburg put a fork in him off of those fractions getting beat. He\'s off to the Pletcher 5 zeros scrap heap to be seen in a 25K claimer real soon.

Frank D.

[BitPlayer]

According to the trainer averages that used to be published in the ROTW, turf-to-dirt produces 23.4% new tops and 20.4% pairs.  That\'s better than most of the categories listed, but the ROI is only 1.46.  Interestingly, dirt-to-turf produces 24.7% new tops, 23.7% pairs, and an ROI of 1.60.

[shanahan]

dropped you a note, but it also was relevant for the place horse in finale.

[Boscar Obarra]

Exactly. Longshot winners are notoriously easy to divine. It\'s how many longshot losers you have to rip to get to them that counts.