ROTW - Parx #8 Pa. Something Champions

[Tavasco]

By the time this race rolls around we should know if the track is playing strange as it sometimes does at PRX.

#1 Cyrus Alexander
Unlikely to lose the ground he has in the last two efforts. Especially from the #1 pp. Bejarano\'s toughness c/b key here. Expecting an inside out trip.

#2 Encryption
Rested and doesn\'t have to chase Bradester which could help. 9/2 doesn\'t rate as value to me.

#3 Bodhisattva
His ferocious finishes in July appears to have taken something out of him. A ground loser not for me.

#4 Res Judicata
I project this one to be the controlling pace. Mth strip was kind to him. Prx bias we never know. But with little or no ground loss and in top form fast enough to test the rest.

#5 Mr. Jordan
This one is a warrior minor placings are routine but @ 2/1 and unlikely to get a controlling position vulnerable.

#6 War Story
It\'s possible this one goes off at less than the 136/1 he was in the Pacific Classic his last outing. Connections are nothing if not optimistic. 1st start with trainer 29% is cause for alarm.

#7 Tale of Life
Beating Graham Motion not exactly a recipe for profits. Several of his last make him competitive here. His trip from pp 7 looms the obstacle.

Summary
My key to this race is the read on #7, he might move forward and if the price holds @ 3/1 I will protect with him on top of a small trifecta over the two I like best. A larger investment will be an ebx #4 & #1 thinking the ground lost by #7 beats him at a distance maybe a little short for him anyway.

[fasteddie]

This is a race for a chance to be BIG in the exotics; the pace of this NYB turf stakes changed dramatically when front-speed Freudie Anne didn\'t enter, and pace-presser Mah Jon Madness opted for the Nobel Damsel.

JC\'s Shooting Star (30-1) better than last; prefers firm grass, but a cut below these.

Fourstar Crook (2-1) Logical, and last two are career best, but adds 5 lbs off the Yaddo win. key to this race is to watch the early races to see if turf favors her closing punch; if speed prevails, she can hit the board, but i will take a stand against her.

Flipcup (6-1) Ridiculous ML; should be under 4-1. Major player for Mott, but was she helped by the softer turf in the Yaddo??

Carameaway (30-1) No, and a likely scratch.

Neck of the Moon (7/2) Win-pool underlay, but an exotic must-use, as she always hit the board. Let her beat me!

Old Harbor (8-1) Won restricted at Delpark that was written for her; in good form, and one of the pace keys. IF she wars on the front with Invading Humor, then the closer will feast.

The Tea Cups (4-1) cross-entered in the Nobel Damsel, perhaps to get Graded black-type. Major player in here if she goes!

Invading Humor (20-1) The other pace key, and she finally gets the cool weather she loves, and firm grass in a NYB stakes. Has the best pace numbers, and won this in 2014; IF \'Harbor sits off of her, as she did in the Ticonderoga, she is a real threat to wire these, at a price!

Jules N Rome  MTO

Selenite (10-1) Has run well, and last was hidden by a bad trip; can hit the board at a nice price.

Swear By It (30-1) Has never been this good, but  was cleverly placed to get graded black type going very long at Delaware...pass!

The play: Watch the early turf routes, as this will temper the play. Invading Humor at anywhere near the ML is the across-the-board play; use in exotics with Selenite, Fourstar Crook, Flipcup, \'Moon, and Tea cups, if she goes!

[Tavasco]

From Apocalypse Now - The Horror!

Reflecting on the 8th race Saturday @ Parx while anxiously anticipating the sure to be entertaining account of Richiebee\'s field trip.

Some disappointment Cryrus Alexander beat down from the m/l 6/1 to post time 2/1. Balanced by #4 Res Judicata floating up from 4/1 to 8/1. So based on the actual ex payoff of similar odds the exacta I was trying to catch paid close to 30/1.

The race played out much like I expected, except Mr. Jordan stayed closer to the pace setter than I expected. Getting edged by Mr. Jordan not a shock but War Story nearly winning the the race was a sad surprise.

The Motion horse #7 Tale of Life-Jpn held at the m/l of 3/1 and my idea of a tri saver was, probably ill conceived, yet my read on the trip difficulty was valid.

While the TG analysis liked Kelly Breen @ Parx and in particular #2 Encryption\'s 0 in June and -2 in September 2015  those races appear to have hurt this guy more than helped. Running an off race was not shocking and the potential to win was apparent at a reasonable 7/1.

The Horror - War Story is a career 5 pt horse. You know the type Vito complains about. He runs the same # virtually every race with the same style never really in contention. Then he goes off form late last year and they try to snap him out of it by running in the Pacific Classic. hmmm?

I was aware that Miguel Penaloza was striking at a 29% rate with first race horses new to his barn. But seriously, I underestimate magic, because I didn\'t think it was possible to get War Story to run a new top let alone compete @ 1 + 1/16.

So excuse my suspicions, doubts and disapproval but I don\'t like seeing his name in the company of horsemen the likes of Hollendorfer, Plesa, Servis, Breen, & Motion. So anyone that knows of the guy be it from prison or church can set the record straight! All I have is the perception.

[jbelfior]

I also boxed the 1-4. Saw Kelly Breen in the crowd and he told me that they need to get Encryption outside as soon as possible since he hates being inside horses.

The War Story wake up did not impact me as the 4 faded but a guy next to me was livid.

Btw: zero physical development from Nyquist since the spring. As I said after the Haskell, time for a press conference.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[drbillym]

Listening to Doug O\'Neill on HRRN yesterday morning he said Nyquist had put on 75 pounds and filled out nicely.  He should know.  But he also expected to win (like most trainers).

[Fairmount1]

Chad Brown, Parx:

2014:  26-18-2-2 (69%, 85% ITM)
2015:  22-9-2-1 (41%, 55% ITM)
2016:  5-1-1-1 (20%, 60% ITM)

[big18741]

Back in 2014 Chad won something like 11 or 12 straight races at Parx.

Don\'t know that he had some sort of advantage with Connect yesterday but a few pounds and an easier trip than Gun Runner certainly helped.

Inside seemed neutral yesterday and Geroux gave it up down the backside to follow Nyquist around.

Maybe Connect improved some as a late developing Curlin?