Rosario on Frosted

[ajkreider]

Did Mubtaahij flop too?  C\'mon, man.

I wouldn\'t run him in the Classic either.  But Kiaran said he\'s been knocking down the stall.  He ran the best fig against a solid field.

[jimbo66]

AJ,

Solid field?  That was the worst Woodward since the field Rachel beat.

Mubtahij ran second, his best career win was in Dubai.

Shaman\'s Ghost won a 1 1/2 Brooklyn.

Ugh.

Frosted regressed.  

As for Kiaran, have you watched how his fast 3 year old filly has done in her two Saratoga starts (including today).  How his last seven 2 year olds have run?  (including many who took money).  

Ice cold.

[Furious Pete]

You can\'t be using TG Figures?

The whole premise is that they incorporate ground loss (which btw is the trip part of performance figures, while projection might respond to the pace part but I\'m not comfortable speaking about how and when Thoro-Graph actually uses that, as I\'m not quite sure).

It really sounds like you think that all big figures that are earned by being wide on turns are \"ground loaded\", and if so it\'s quite the mystery to me what you are even doing on a forum like this. I can agree with Miff and others that there are races where the ground loss formula can produce figures you should be sceptical about, because you really have to apply it in the same manner in all races if you\'re going to use ground while making figures. This is not the type of race where that applies though, at least not in my opinion, because most of the ground loss Frosted had here was in the last turn, where the pace was high and they\'re not messing about. This is REAL ground loss, and those figures are exactly where Thoro-Graph has its edge over i.e Beyer, which is what I would call a classical speed figure (and really what you should be buying if you don\'t believe in ground, because it\'s cheaper).

Now, I know very well that Kiaran is a streaky fellow, I know that he fared way better earlier in this meet and I too was surprised to see him running Frosted last night. That is all beside the point, though, because that is about horse management. The point now is that Frosted really did run very well last night, he certainly ran better than I would\'ve expected and I do think that Rosario could\'ve pushed harder, earlier, to maybe win this race, all though I\'m not sure. We\'ll never know, but he didn\'t get a good start, he did go very wide when the pace was high, and he really was cruising and looking sure to win at one stage in the stretch. And he did it against horses that deserves a lot more respect than you\'re giving them. I won\'t be surprised if this indeed comes back as a better figure than the figure from the Whitney, and that isn\'t all that surprising either as he gave it all yesterday, while he might have had something left in the tank in the Whitney.

Now where all this puts Frosted in the Breeders Cup is beyond me at this point, and I won\'t even begin to speculate about that. His pattern won\'t look all that pretty, but I do think Frosted has proved two times now that the insane number three starts back wasn\'t a fluke. This horse can run.

[jimbo66]

Pete,

Don\'t tell me what figures I should be using.  I am well aware of what a TG figure is and what it isn\'t.   Sounds like u don\'t.   That, combined with u thinking frosted ran well yesterday only make me wish I could book your horse bets.

U must have made a fortune in the Woodward if a weak 3rd was much better than u expected from Frosted.

When there are 4 horses on the wire together it is a sign the race was slow.   Frosted want spotting that much weight and he got beat by a couple horses whose top was 0.

Mubtahij had a top of 0.  Finished basically on the wire with frosted while 3 or 4 wide on the first turn and 4 wide on the second turn.  So wider than frosted, by a path or so overall, as frosted was near the rail first turn.   He got 6 lbs from frosted.  

If u pair up Mubtahj, what does that give frosted a 0 or negative 1?   Which was worse than that on the track. Off the pace he should have some turn of foot or punch late, but didn\'t.  

Jim

[Furious Pete]

If you have Mubtaahij 8 wide in total last night I better understand your complete rejection of ground loss in figure making