The Beginning of The End

[Tavasco]

As the Saratoga meet heads for its close. I\'m looking at a vertical opportunity in Fridays card. I think I may have found a good puzzle in the very first race. But I need some help.

The horse I\'m looking at is #6 My Jimmy Chew Doll, if... the horse goes at near its 12/1 m/l. Assessing him is the first phase of my process. I\'m asking for some opinions on how you expect her to run in this spot.

I see the race as complicated because I have doubts about projecting most all of the contenders performance. I see some ouchy ones. I see a few routers trying their luck @ 7F. A few turf horses dropping changing their game after no success. A  couple of FL sprinters trying to go an extra furlong. One with two wins in a row and the other a consistent runner up type.

The second step will be to distill the others into contenders and tosses. I doubt the #6 is a serious win candidate but second or third doesn\'t seem unreasonable. I think this one was unlucky in its last to run into Silver Silence on a good day in a fast paced route for this level. Maybe that one, SS, is today\'s money horse?

Lastly, are there any well known trainer strategies that should be considered at the end of this meet? i.e., I find it curious that trainer Greg Matties (fairly adept 1st off a claim and after resting) would choose this spot? Is he taking out the trash or looking for a soft spot to get the purchase price back?

[belmont3]

Tavasco cat,

My pre race note was to use 6 in small vertical play.

A few seem faster and the 3 and 4 hail from 2 barns that are going well.

6 has some \"trainer intent\" angles. Owner/trainer claim. Shipping in from Belmont. (Why not wait a week).
Mattie\'s one of those under the radar type guys.

Hope  I do not give you the \"kiss o death\" but I kind of like your play here especially at anywhere near the ML.

Bob