Travers Day Non-Seminar Races

[P-Dub]

Race 4:
Several in here with similar number power, but the one I like best is #10 Mighty Souper. Weights range from 115 to 124, I always adjust down from the high weight,  MS carries 122, around a half point in weight. 2nd start as a 4YO here, she was OP with a pace AND H designation for her last. She ran the fastest fig in the race last year at Saratoga, I look for her 2nd start as a 4YO to move forward and at least match that number. If she does she\'s a huge threat, as long as she doesn\'t lose a ton of ground from the outside post. 4/1 on the ML I would need every bit of that. Using her on top of the following:

1-Penjade (9/2ML): Gets in light, ran decent enough in her 3YO debut, can move forward and hit the board. Chad/Irad may kill the price tho.
2- Ortiga (20/1ML): Gets almost a point, been sprinting now stretching back out. If she works out a trip and runs her good one, something she did last year here, she can hit the board at a nice price. Johnny V wins at a 19% clip for this trainer.
3-Last Waltz (3/1ML): Gets in light, I see her running the sam number as 2 back. Good for a piece but an underlay for the win.
5- Montalcino (7/2ML): 4YO ran back to his 3YO top first out this year (getting a pace,H,op designation), giving him license to move forward.
8-Stella Rose (5/1ML): At 117 gets in light with around 1.5 points of weight. Lightly raced, she tried the grass for the first time in her last and tossed a solid figure despite not breaking very well. A pair up is the worst she will do and a slight move forward puts her squarely in the mix. Well bred for the sod too.

As SoCal has mentioned, who knows what the odds will be. If the ML hold up, #10 Mighty Souper my key. If the odds are nothing like the ML, I may come back here and change the win ticket.

Race 5:
I like a couple in this 1 3/8 turf race for 3 YOs. #3 Manitoulin (6/1ML) gets in light at 115, as we again have a wide range of weight carried (113-124). She has forged her way steadily to the fastest number in the race - weight adjusted - and I see absolutely no reason why he shouldn\'t fire another big shot today. A clear key from the 3 hole hopefully saving ground along the way. Anything close to his ML and he may be one of my top plays today.

I also like the #10 Mission Driven (8/1ML). The 8/1 ML may be a pipe dream with the Chad/JJ connections. Carrying 120 pds today this guy matched his 3YO top in his 4YO debut last out, an explosive pattern to me and it wouldn\'t surprise me at all if he runs a new top which makes him a major player here. I don\'t have a racing form handy, but my pace numbers/running styles don\'t show an abundance of speed in here. Drawing outside I expect him to be forwardly placed early. Ground loss always a concern from this post, hopefully getting out smartly can mitigate that to some degree, but a clear contender.

Tote will determine who gets my win money, but unless we get another \"Stoned\" ML vs Reality odds board it will be the #3. I will put in a nice exacta with these two.

Minors:
5,6,7,8,9. I\'m too tired for writeups on all of them, hoping one of the price horses can hit the board.

JB with another solid job on the seminar. A few random thoughts:

Race 6: The Personal Ensign- looks like a nice time to grab a beer and a bite. Crap shoot with little value.

Race 7: The Ballerina,- I\'m having a hard time with Paula off that big number, she\'s reacted off it before. Wavell solid but at the expected price I\'ll pass. Carina at 7/2? Meh. There are several in here that you can kinda make a case for. So having said a whole lot of nothing so far, I\'ll take a shot with #2 By The Moon (6/1ML). She\'s won at the 7F distance, just matched her 3YO top in her 2nd race as a 4YO last time. Thoropattern says 15% chance at a Top, so I\'ll need every bit of that 6/1ML but I think this one may go overlooked and go off at DD with JJ in the irons too. I\'ll take a flyer on her in a very contentious race.

Race 8: The King\'s Bishop- Agree with JBs picks,the longshot he mentions, and I\'m using the synthetic shipper Noholdingbackbear.

Race 9: The Forego- Agree with the analysis, of the ones mentioned I like the \"outsider\". Solid ML price too.

Race 11: The Travers - A fantastic analysis of the Travers. I\'m right there with you.

Hanging out in the GGF turf club with a buddy. No, its not the Spa/Del Mar/Monmouth or any other great racetrack around the country. But I do have a beautiful view of the Golden Gate Bridge, and that never gets old. Of course, that will be offset by the dulcet tones of Ms Hermann. So what. Live racing, Travers Day, and a fistful of Thorographs, money, and cold beer.

Good luck to everyone on a great day of racing.

[Tavasco]

Race #5
re: pace while it appears, to me, only one wants to run early #12 Columix one or more of the (1,2 & 3) platoon are sure to make a strong middle move. So your choice could have company when trying to take command.

There are a couple who take a long time to build up speed in here. My inner CIA voice hinting that Columix may be someone\'s rabbit. Bingo, I mean Bingo Kitten that is. The Ramseys.

We\'ll see, looks like a great card, an analysis full of potential and a good N.Y. weather day from whatever one\'s vantage point.

[TGJB]

Pdub-- it would be interesting to compare GG\'s beer prices with Saratoga, where they are now getting 7.50 for a lemonade. Only thing resembling a bargain is Hattie\'s chicken sandwich, which could feed a family of four.

[bfick]

Completely agree with BTM.  Thinks she runs a big race.  Pairing her up with Carina who I think fires a new top on the turn back to 7f.  PSL reacted badly off big number before and I\'ll play for her to do so again.  Wavell will be used but defensively.

Forego race looks like a good spot for Catalina Red to get back to his top from 4 months ago.  Last race was a nice bounce back and see him circling back to the big figure he fired at CD.  Just wish he wasn\'t buried down on the rail.  Will also be using LL is this race.  I\'ve been waiting for this guy to pop a new top and at 15-1 today looks like the day to take a shot with this guy.

[Wrongly]

P-Dub

I\'m going to start one race earlier with the 3rd.  It\'s All Relevant is a recover line play for me.  Note the bounce off top was smaller than the bounce off previous top and last looks like a recovery line.  Hoping for 5/1 or more.

Race #4 - I also like Mark Casse\'s Mighty Souper.  Just a note on that race last year he finished just behind Gap Year; McLaughlin 20/1 winner the first week.  I\'ll also use Stella Rose with the driving line and Montalcino in case she puts in the 3 point Eruo jump up.

Race #5 - Wide Open and I will spread here but agree on Manitoulin getting the weight.  Still this is one of those chaos races and I would hate to play it short.

Best of luck to everyone today.  T.

[shanahan]

Jerry, I no longer bitch about SAR beer prices.  At Del Mar this week.  The beer drafts are $13.  I\'m not kidding.  And you don\'t even get to meet the brewmaster...great fun chatting/handicapping with Roger.  But it felt like prohibition till we could get back to the Hilton...best of luck to all today.

[boardedup]

I\'ll be using the same two in the Forego.  I\'ve always liked LL, extremely consistent this year, always gives an effort.  Has ran well here before, a 3+ pt new top at the time.  Like the bit of rest coming in, he won coming off the shelf in the spring.  The price should be more than fair to play for a new top today.

[Topcat]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pdub-- it would be interesting to compare GG\'s
> beer prices with Saratoga, where they are now
> getting 7.50 for a lemonade. Only thing resembling
> a bargain is Hattie\'s chicken sandwich, which
> could feed a family of four.


The $4 lemonade\'s just a distant memory -- but you get a souvenir cup (gag)!

Not to mention the $8.25 Heinie drafts.

[Boscar Obarra]

7.50 for lemonade. Some enterprising parent should have their kid selling cups for $5 pop in the backyard. By the time they got kicked out, they will have banked.

[toppled]

Bombs away with #5 Bird Song in the King\'s Bishop. Teaming him up with the seminar horses.

In the finale I liked #7 I Win before the jockey change, now I love I Win.

[P-Dub]

By The Moon. That hurt.

I had the exacta and started a P3, but I had a substantial win ticket on her. Won money but feels like a loss. Ugh.

On to the next.

[RICH]

how can you bitch when you could bring a cooler of beer in for free, I haven\'t bought a beer at Saratoga for 30 years

[RICH]

I love the tagg horse, I love the pattern, the number, if he goes 1w1w, the rest are going to have to do some running to get by even if he pairs the previous pair

[TempletonPeck]

Price seems pretty fair. Even money on #11 feels like Chad Brown tax, but then again I\'m the guy that keeps losing to Chad Brown.

I\'m 7/1,9,10, gl

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pdub-- it would be interesting to compare GG\'s
> beer prices with Saratoga, where they are now
> getting 7.50 for a lemonade. Only thing resembling
> a bargain is Hattie\'s chicken sandwich, which
> could feed a family of four.



6.50 bottle of domestic
7.50 import.

I had several after BTM got run down in the Ballerina.