Saratoga Morning Line

[richiebee]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

 
> First, why would this guy have any credibility?
> His lines speak volumes already.  We know enough
> already to know that anything he says on the topic
> cannot be trusted. The big problem is that his
> employer is an even bigger idiot than he is and
> doesn\'t understand this.
>
> However, I would not focus on races filled with
> first time starters.  Those races should be hard
> for any linemaker and you would expect a field of
> first time starters to vary quite a bit from the
> line.  You may well be right that he botched the
> line in the race you are talking about, but that
> race should be more difficult than a simple race
> with obvious horses with well established form.
>
> The real problem is that he is missing the chip
> shots and he is not just missing them, he is not
> even remotely in the ballpark.....he is not even
> in the furthest auxiliary parking lot from the
> ballpark.
>
> The only good news is that he revealed how bad he
> was very fast, so that astute players rapidly
> understood not to trust him and to adjust.
> Unfortunately, to get newcomers and novices into
> our sport, we are supposed to make it less
> bewildering not more bewildering.  This is a
> problem for people who want this support to be
> sustainable -- it does not appear that the NYRA
> even considers that question.

I grow rather weary of Travis Stone\'s bad morning lines -- and there have been
some rather inexplicable ones -- being blamed for everything from global
warming to the Palestinian problem.

SoCalMan, I will concede the following:

(1)Some horseplayers/handicappers rely on an accurate morning line;
2) Chris Kay is not a horseplayer/handicapper, so he is probably not aware of
(1);
3) NYRA (and race tracks and administrators all over the U.S) marginalize the
importance of horseplayers to the industry;
4) Travis Stone is already on the payroll as a backup race caller (he is a
very good race caller, by the way) as insurance for when Larry \"the Screamer\"
Collmus¹ finally blows out a lung or tears a vocal chord. NYRA, in
an attempt to balance the legit (no slot revenue) books, got one of their
employees to multi-task. The timing (Saratoga) was bad; the training of Mr.
Stone was probably non existent.

These are all problems, and yes, representative of larger problems in the
racing industry,

HOWEVER, this is one of the longest threads of the Saratoga meet, and while
there is some anecdotal evidence (specific races with bad morning lines), some
name calling, some hand wringing, threats to play elsewhere, etc, what I
suggest is the following:

1) For a day, a week, the entire meet, or even ONE race, someone take Travis
Stone\'s morning line for a particular race (available in many places) and
then, after the race is run, get the chart for that race and compare Stone\'s
ML to the off odds. You might even end up with some empirical evidence which
could be presented to NYRA to drive home the point that Stone\'s MLs are not
accurate (might be a harder sell convincing someone at NYRA that this bad
morning line making is hurting business).

2)Anyone feel free to answer this, although I suspect Rocky is going to hit me
with 10 or 12 articles to read: How can a crafty horseplayer take ADVANTAGE of
a consistently bad morning line?

------------
Best and worse of Larry at the Spa this summer: Best: His call that Songbird
was \"whistling past the graveyard of champions\" in the CCA Oaks was very
inventive. Worst: when Flintshire dropped to last in the four horse field, LC
got a little overwrought, as if he were covering a natural disaster (I almost
expected him to utter \"Oh, the humanity!\"). The truth was that Flintshire was
never in danger of losing this race, and LC went for drama over an accurate
race call.

[TGJB]

As far as I know it\'s the graveyard of favorites, not champions.

Not this year...

[SoCalMan2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
>  
> > First, why would this guy have any credibility?
>
> > His lines speak volumes already.  We know
> enough
> > already to know that anything he says on the
> topic
> > cannot be trusted. The big problem is that his
> > employer is an even bigger idiot than he is and
> > doesn\'t understand this.
> >
> > However, I would not focus on races filled with
> > first time starters.  Those races should be
> hard
> > for any linemaker and you would expect a field
> of
> > first time starters to vary quite a bit from
> the
> > line.  You may well be right that he botched
> the
> > line in the race you are talking about, but
> that
> > race should be more difficult than a simple
> race
> > with obvious horses with well established form.
> >
> > The real problem is that he is missing the chip
> > shots and he is not just missing them, he is
> not
> > even remotely in the ballpark.....he is not
> even
> > in the furthest auxiliary parking lot from the
> > ballpark.
> >
> > The only good news is that he revealed how bad
> he
> > was very fast, so that astute players rapidly
> > understood not to trust him and to adjust.
> > Unfortunately, to get newcomers and novices
> into
> > our sport, we are supposed to make it less
> > bewildering not more bewildering.  This is a
> > problem for people who want this support to be
> > sustainable -- it does not appear that the NYRA
> > even considers that question.
>
> I grow rather weary of Travis Stone\'s bad morning
> lines -- and there have been
> some rather inexplicable ones -- being blamed for
> everything from global
> warming to the Palestinian problem.
>
> SoCalMan, I will concede the following:
>
> (1)Some horseplayers/handicappers rely on an
> accurate morning line;
> 2) Chris Kay is not a horseplayer/handicapper, so
> he is probably not aware of
> (1);
> 3) NYRA (and race tracks and administrators all
> over the U.S) marginalize the
> importance of horseplayers to the industry;
> 4) Travis Stone is already on the payroll as a
> backup race caller (he is a
> very good race caller, by the way) as insurance
> for when Larry \"the Screamer\"
> Collmus1 finally blows out a lung or tears a vocal
> chord. NYRA, in
> an attempt to balance the legit (no slot revenue)
> books, got one of their
> employees to multi-task. The timing (Saratoga) was
> bad; the training of Mr.
> Stone was probably non existent.
>
> These are all problems, and yes, representative of
> larger problems in the
> racing industry,
>
> HOWEVER, this is one of the longest threads of the
> Saratoga meet, and while
> there is some anecdotal evidence (specific races
> with bad morning lines), some
> name calling, some hand wringing, threats to play
> elsewhere, etc, what I
> suggest is the following:
>
> 1) For a day, a week, the entire meet, or even ONE
> race, someone take Travis
> Stone\'s morning line for a particular race
> (available in many places) and
> then, after the race is run, get the chart for
> that race and compare Stone\'s
> ML to the off odds. You might even end up with
> some empirical evidence which
> could be presented to NYRA to drive home the point
> that Stone\'s MLs are not
> accurate (might be a harder sell convincing
> someone at NYRA that this bad
> morning line making is hurting business).
>
> 2)Anyone feel free to answer this, although I
> suspect Rocky is going to hit me
> with 10 or 12 articles to read: How can a crafty
> horseplayer take ADVANTAGE of
> a consistently bad morning line?
>
> ------------
> Best and worse of Larry at the Spa this summer:
> Best: His call that Songbird
> was \"whistling past the graveyard of champions\" in
> the CCA Oaks was very
> inventive. Worst: when Flintshire dropped to last
> in the four horse field, LC
> got a little overwrought, as if he were covering a
> natural disaster (I almost
> expected him to utter \"Oh, the humanity!\"). The
> truth was that Flintshire was
> never in danger of losing this race, and LC went
> for drama over an accurate
> race call.

RichieBee,

All fair and good.  

I am still feeling the sting of yesterday\'s non-DQ (leaving a favorite up in the supposed graveyard of favorites I will point out).  I need to go sit in a good steam at the best shvitz I can find (in even more short supply in the USA than diligent racing officials), and then I will revisit this question.

For sure a bad ML is a good thing for advanced players.  It is a bad thing for the hoi polloi.  This is the dilemma that was faced in the online poker world....You need to be able to juice the fish, but you dont want to juice them so well that no more show up.  It is the same balancing act that El Gran Senor faced in trying not to squeeze the lemon dry.  My view is that the advanced player already has enough edge over the less advanced, we are in an era where we need to expand the pool.

[metroj]

747 was favored in both horizontal wagers closing out in that race (and it wasn\'t close), seems the masses had little trouble finding the 20-1.

[jp702006]

They did however have trouble cashing any winning tickets on this \'steam\' horse.........

[BitPlayer]

I am curious how the Saratoga morning line is affecting the analysis product.  I notice, for example, that the analysis put up winners of 4 of the first 5 races on Saturday, but all of them went off at below the bettable odds listed in the analysis.  There were also several non-bets on Sunday.  Is this unusual for NYRA tracks?

[johnnym]

I don\'t know about you guys but some of these Travers odds have my juices flowing.
Even though I don\'t believe Destin,GM or Creator go of at those odds.

[ajkreider]

The beauty of a large field.  Was not planning on playing My Man Sam, but 20-1?  Double digits on all of those you mention, and Gift Box?  If those are even close to right, the exotics are going to be crazy.

Was curious about the equipment change on American Freedom.

[mjellish]

My take, Travers is the Mid-Summer Derby, no?  Not the time to be making equipment changes if you are confident in your horse.  Blinkers on or off do much for you in the KY Derby on a short priced horse?

Not saying AF can\'t win or run well.  But i have to look elsewhere.  It would be one thing if it equip change was last race and the horse acted like a new horse and then worked really well with blinkers off again.  But Baffert is bringing another horse here for this too.  That doesnt bring me confidence reading between the lines.

[jbelfior]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My take, Travers is the Mid-Summer Derby, no?  Not
> the time to be making equipment changes if you are
> confident in your horse.  Blinkers on or off do
> much for you in the KY Derby on a short priced
> horse?
>
> Not saying AF can\'t win or run well.  But i have
> to look elsewhere.  It would be one thing if it
> equip change was last race and the horse acted
> like a new horse and then worked really well with
> blinkers off again.  But Baffert is bringing
> another horse here for this too.  That doesnt
> bring me confidence reading between the lines.


I agree. Baffert had him pretty cranked for the Haskell on a wet track in which he has now performed well over twice. Perhaps he\'s looking to get him to relax early. Going back to Jimbo\'s comment on the Haskell to the Travers and the long list of failures. Baffert no stranger to that list with speed types that dominated at MP only to crash and burn 3 weeks later. Point Given the exception however we\'re talking a 12 length Belmont winner.

As I mentioned previously, besides my willingness to forgive Gun Runner, I like the Belmont Stakes angle in this race.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[gohorse]

One of the handicapping angles I look for is speed horses taking blinkers off first time in there life.

I find that a speed horse will get brave on the front end with blinkers off but only when it is the first time without blinkers.

Of course it does not work all the time but it does work more than you would think and the horse should have some sort of chance looking at the numbers.

I have to think that Baffert knows what he is doing and they will be sending American Freedom right to the front.

[RICH]

FWIW

last 6 months blinkers on
start 4540
win 528
win % 12%
roi .78

speed horses 1st or 2nd
start 1063
win 16%
roi .85

still need to pick your spots

[RICH]

blinkers on above, b off coming

[RICH]

blinkers off last 6 months

starts 2287
wins 273
win 12%
roi .85


b off with speed 1st/2nd qtr pole

start 716
wins 17%
roi 1.03

[gohorse]

Thanks for the stats.

You still have to use the sheets for the race. The horse has to have a fighting chance. Some horses are rats and nothing you do can get them to win.

Back to American Freedom he is a good horse with a fighting chance in the Travers.I look at the blinkers off as good move for this horse. In a 14 horse field the front is not a bad place to be.