Handicapping the closers ...

[Niall]

What to do with the one\'s that come off the pace? Someone\'s getting a dream trip, someone\'s not. Who\'s saving, who\'s not? Do they have different closing styles, if there is such a thing? Can you re-rally? Jockey skills come into play. Who will and wont come up the rail? I\'m all in on Uncle Mo! Crushed (broke even) the Arlington Million card a few back betting Ramsey/Kitten\'s Joy. I\'ll let a Tapit beat me at a mile and a quarter everyday. Because even if you win its seems like a gut wrenching race. And so much more, enjoying all (most) of it.

[SteveB]

The last 3 times the derby winner was in the 1 path on both turns were the 3 Borel winners. Not sure when the last time someone else won in the 1 path all the way around. It won\'t be Borel on the rail this time. TG even has War Emblem 2 wide on both turns in his win. Is there another jockey that can ride the rail?

[Kasept]

Corey Lanerie.. except it didn\'t work out so well for him and Mo Tom in the Risen Star and LA Derby.

But Lanerie is big on saving ground.

[mbeychok]

Lanerie seems to like the rail quite a bit with his mount.

[ajkreider]

After the dressing down he got after the LA Derby, I would be shocked if he took the rail - even if it was available.

[rhagood]

There he was the best horse per Amoss and instructed to stay clear of trouble, not the case here so he might take the inland route in a change of strategy.

[P-Dub]

SteveB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The last 3 times the derby winner was in the 1
> path on both turns were the 3 Borel winners. Not
> sure when the last time someone else won in the 1
> path all the way around. It won\'t be Borel on the
> rail this time. TG even has War Emblem 2 wide on
> both turns in his win. Is there another jockey
> that can ride the rail?

You don\'t necessarily have to ride the rail, you just need to save more ground than the horses you\'re trying to run down. I don\'t know if riding the rail in a field this large is the greatest idea. Find a seam and shoot through it.

[boardedup]

This race strikes me as one where I don\'t want anyone trying to close from off the pace.  The winner comes from the front end or one of the 2(?) stalkers, exotics sure.

[joemama]

FWIW, from a historical perspective from 1986 to 2011. Winning Running style averages.

Wire - 12%
Stalk -22%
Mid Pack Stalk - 4%
Rally -27%
Deep Rally -35%

If my memory serves me right:

2012  I\'ll have another
2013  Orb -Deep Rally
2014  Chrome -Stalk
2015  AP  -Stalk