Cathryn Sophia

[TGJB]

I don\'t disagree with a lot of what you said about CS and figuring out what variables matter there is a real big part of handicapping the Oaks. I do disagree with the idea that her running badly that day automatically means she can\'t get the distance, that there is necessarily cause and effect.

I don\'t hold with much of what you heard across the street, their absolutism is silly. I don\'t toss out all non-sheet handicapping ideas, I don\'t mind them being discussed here as long as they don\'t dominate the conversation or are complete nonsense (\"class\"). And there are some (Maggie) who clearly have an eye and can see things I can\'t, I want to know what they say.

But the two things that matter here are that performance can be measured (at least in terms of certain metrics which are indisputable, like distance traveled), and form is not a constant. A horse is not a 6. A performance is a 6.

[miff]

JB,

Think the Ashland clearly opens the discussions of CS\'s ability to get two turns and 9f as fast as she was able to do going one turn up to mile.Not saying conclusively she won\'t but certainly have a lean against based on that very ordinary performance for her.She had a perfect set up and failed.

Mike

[TGJB]

I agree it opens up the discussion, or continues it.

[ajkreider]

Blazing work for Carina today - .58 and 4/5 at Churchill.  Next best was a minute flat.  For comparison, Creator at 1:02 2/5. Her gallop out likely bested Gun Runner\'s very good 1:12 1/5.

[ringato3]

Would love to see her get in.  She has a fast figure last year that gives her enough number power with any development, figures to be tighter based on Mott\'s tendencies with layoff horses and adds to the early pace (removes chance of RV getting a simple lead)

Rob