Nyquist/San Vicente

[TempletonPeck]

I can\'t say if the horse wants 1 1/4 or not, but he sure looked good.

1/2 in 44.50 going 7f, and wrapped it up within a stone\'s throw of the track record.

After the race Kent Desormeaux, asked about Exaggerator\'s performance relative to Nyquist\'s, said something along the lines of, \"Well, he\'s (Exaggerator) a very nice horse who ran very well today. We\'d have to have set a track record today to have won, Nyquist was just better today.\" Trakus says Kent/Exaggerator lost more ground than he lost by (~24feet vs. 1 1/4 lengths) although Nyquist didn\'t appear to be bottomed out to win by 1 1/4.

A week ago he was 15/1 at the Wynn in the Derby futures, compare with Mohaymen at 8/1 and Mor Spirit at 9/1 for reference. Seems silly to me (given the information available a week later, of course!).

Have read that he will head to Gulfstream for the Fla. Derby because of a bonus offered by the F-T people. I wonder if this will present a betting opportunity when East Coast bias/$ doesn\'t buy in to a CA invader?

[Tavasco]

Good move by Baffert to avoid any chance of embarrassment by only sending one, (Electrifying) who was unlikely to jump up about 18 tg pts, and then scratching him?

I read somewhere the minor knocks on Nyquist were while winning he hasn\'t run really fast yet? I have to wonder whose performance figures they were looking at, certainly not TG. Now that he presumably has been rated really really fast the FL Derby looms as a special race. Exaggerator and his connections won\'t miss him.

As for the classic distance, who knows anymore? California Chrome, etc. This one looks all male and all stallion to my eye. The notion that East Coast and FL bettors may not jump on a CA shipper not trained by Baffert c/b worth a point or two in the odds.

Note - the TG analysis, sometimes abused sometimes praised, called for a cold exacta in the order they finished.

[Silver Charm]

Fast track or not that is real race horse time. 20 and 4. In whatever they call the old Norfolk now (Forerunner?) he looked like he was getting out or off his proper lead. This led me to toss him BC Day and I bet Exaggerator who also came back strong.

This horse is real deal. Silver Charm won the San Vincente and the Derby. Has there been anyone since? Yes that was 20 years ago but half the Derby winners probably came out of the east coast so they wouldn\'t have run out there to open their campaign.

[miff]

Nyquist ran a new top at two services, in the TG 1 range.Ran very hard and fast for a season debut,7f or not. Breeding says he\'s slanted towards shorter distances than TC races but distance breeding has been defied lately.

Strange that connections want to ship to GP and tackle Mohaymen when there are many better options.The $1million bonus to win the Florida Derby must be a major factor.

[ringato3]

Gonna put this one in the winner\'s circle for sure on the first Saturday in May with this post, but can\'t see this one winning the Derby.  Wouldn\'t take 20-1, let alone 8-1 or 10-1.

Small colt, looking nothing like a mile and a quarter animal.  Comparisons to Chrome off base in my view as Chrome was sort of opposite, came out early with very mediocre races as a young 2 year old, then got good at the right time.  Nyquist fired right out of the gate, seemingly didn\'t improve at all, then ran a very wide race in the Breeder\'s Cup that resulted in a big sheets figure, but mediocre figs on Beyers and pace figs.

Now will have one sprint prep and one route prep, then 1 1/4 for a horse who seemingly isn\'t bred for or looking the part of a distance horse.  

The only problem I have is that when he gets beat in the Florida Derby, which he will if Mohaymen runs, he won\'t be the underlay I want him to be in Kentucky.

Ran well yesterday for sure.  But 7 furlongs a different animal.  apples and oranges to the Derby, comparisons to Silver Charm aside.

Good luck,

Rob

[TempletonPeck]

My guess is that to the connections there are only two meaningful options: stay home or FL.

Mor Spirit + Exaggerator await in the SA Derby, which is also 4 weeks out from the big one as opposed to the FL Derby, 5 weeks out.

Whatever happened to Swipe?

[johnnym]

Swipe was/is injured.
Nyquist coming of the bench to just miss a track record is quit impressive.

No love for Suddenbreakingnews?
Coming from last 4 wide and to close like he did I thought was an impressive showing especially 1st of the layoff. That Churchill stretch can sure be long.

[TempletonPeck]

Yeah, after posting I googled. Seems Swipe had an injury, a surgery, and was expected to return to the worktab... Today!

Not sure if that happened, or not.

San Felipe looking salty:

Jay Privman ‏@DRFPrivman  3h3 hours ago
\"... 3-12 San Felipe currently includes Exaggerator, Mor Spirit, Smokey Image, Danzing Candy, Uncle Lino. Will upstage that day\'s Big \'Cap\"

[ajkreider]

Agree about Suddenbreakingnews.  Chart has him 7 wide out of the turn.  Normally with a horse closing like that, you might expect a dawdling time.  But it was easily the fastest of several at that distance.

Can\'t find the winner\'s last fraction, but it had to be sub 6 seconds, as he put 9 lengths on the leader in the stretch (who was eventually third), and put 6 on the 2nd-placed and well-thought-of Whitmore.

One to watch.

Edit:  In fact, given the final race fraction of 6.23 and the ground made up, a back-of-the-envelope calculation has the winner finishing in the 5.5 - 5.7 second range.  

Flying.

[pizzalove]

Ringato,

I have not seen Nyquist work in person yet but will do so in March if he runs next at Florida Derby,  then I am heading for Keeneland for a couple weeks in April.  Hoping to see some east coast derby runners for just a day or two somewhere in between.

I really agree with you.  I would also add that I did see CC work out once and from what I have seen from Nyquist so far he looks much smaller than Chrome did..  I would not describe Cc as a small horse.  Would you?  Hoping I am remembering correctly.  I also don\'t feel that CC is a good comparison.  From what I saw from the build of Nyquist he reminds me of Alyrob.  How about that for a blast from the past.  Although they both had different running styles.

Would like to see Nyquist wire field on front running gulf stream and he would be a salivating bet against in the derby.

[miff]

Present top two Mohaymen and Nyquist both on the small side.This may become a major factor in their ability to withstand the triple crown physicality test which many fail.

[Silver Charm]

Miff good point but with Mohaymen they paid $2.2M for him and he might worth 5 times that much now. If he wins the next 2 and then the Derby he is probably worth 10 times that purchase price. The Triple Crown is for glory and honor from there....