Saturday Gulfstream 5th

[johnnym]

Question regarding the 5th yesterday at Gulfstream.
 In your analysis sheet you correctly picked the 2
 JRs Holiday.
 Looking back over the sheets,what did you see
 other than a weight break over the 3,6,7
 They(3,6&7) had better numbers and better
 patterns in my opinion.
 Thanks
 John.
 P.S
 That horse cost me my 1st ever try at the Pick 4

[FrankD.]

Johnny,

Not speaking for whomever did the analysis but I\'ll state my own humble opinion on this race that I hit the pick 3 and lost money on it!

Harlans Holiday\'s improve 4 points from 2-3, the rail at Gulf in 7.5, mile and mile and 1/16 turf heats is a huge advantage more so with rail placements which go way out there at Gulf. Look how many monster price horses get great trips from inside post 4 in these races and get into the verticals? Toss his first 3 races on dirt, 1st race was a 5f sprint with a vet scratch the week before,sy, OP then we go to turf 16, 11, a regression  with 3W4W into a hot pace, 9 weeks off back to the 11, inside, getting weight, 7 weeks from last race, this horse can be pencilled in for a 9 or 10 at 20/1.

IMHO:
Only the 7 had a better pattern and Casse\'s runners have all been coming around, once could make a case that with ground loss and weight the 1 had as good a chance to win as the 7 at more than 10 times the price. I bet very little on the pick 3 as the payoffs would have been nothing with the 6 or 7, it only paid $118 with the the 20/1 shot. Crushed the tri\'s with 1,6,7 box, 7/1,6/ ALL 1,6/7/All and healthy exacta\'s 1/6,7 key box.

Before TGJB scolds me for wasting a $40 horse! Inspite of all the above positives I still thought the 6 and 7 were both more likely winners and could not imagine both of them being out of the exacta! So NO win bet on the 1 nor even a small exacta wheel. He would have made a lovely pick 4 or 5 had I not blown the first and second races.

OH WELL,

Frank D.

PS 1st trip to Gulf this winter will be Friday and Saturday February 19th & 20th if anyone if there those days send me a PM and we can have a cocktail. I\'ll be back twice in March gotta love Jet Blue and Hilton honors at the Hampton Inn drunken staggering distance from the village!!!!

[johnnym]

I understand the rail advantage on those length races with the short run to the turn..
How does that affect a closer like the 2 turning for home?
With little speed in the race I figured turning for home the closers were going to be going 3-4-5 wide..
Some reason the 3 was in the middle of the track leaving the rail wide open..
If the 3 stayed on the rail the whole race maybe different outcome..
Sour grapes maybe..
Frank PM when you are coming down,ill see what my schedule is like. With a 5 and a 10 year old life changes hourly..
John