No repect for Came Home

[MO]

Nunzio,

I don\'t understand your post. Please clarify.
Thanks.

MO

[MO]

Thanks for the explanation. I will keep that in mind, but one last point: man cannot/does not handicap on figures alone. There are many other factors. If Came Home draws post 20 he\'s a throwout. If he\'s washy in the post parade, he\'s a throwout. Same for any other horse that might face these circumstances. Good discussion, man.

MO

[nunzio]

Mark,

I beleive 1 1/4 miles is beyond his scope.

Nunzio

[rail]

Monarchos and Thunder Gulch couldn\'t win because of their breeding? Why do you say that?

[MO]

Both were sired by specialists at 6f, 7f, 1 mile.

Marias Mon retired with injury. So did his son. Imagine my surprise.

MO

[tread]

Mark, why do you place so much stock in the sire\'s ability to get distance?  The dam\'s side is equally important, and in my estimation, more important.  I think you are making a mistake here, but who am I to try to talk you out of it.

I understand a little better what you mean about \"good\" horse now, but what you really mean is durable.  I am currently investigating a theory I started after reading the article in bloodhorse about how only one of the winners who raced over the hard derby-day surface last year have come back to win a race.  

I then thought of some comments I heard from an owner I met who said that Gulfstream Park is very hard on horses.  That got me to thinking, how many horses who spent a winter in Gulfstream, had an effort down there, and either had poor showings and never really did anything again by derby time, or in the case of last year, were done right after the derby.  Let\'s look at a recent list...

Monarchos
Invisible Ink (actually attempting a comeback)
Songandaprayer
ThunderBlitz
TalkIsMoney
Hals Hope (an expetion)
Wheelaway
Trippi (went back to sprinting and did OK)
HighYield
Cat Thief (an exception)
Vicar
Wondertross
Stephen Got Even
Adonis
Halory Hunter
Lils Lad

Anyone see where I\'m going with this?  Obviously, you can\'t draw a firm conclusion from this, but if I had a star 3 year-old preping for the derby, i would be avoiding GP like the plague.

[MO]

I was only respnding to the discussion about breeding for Ky Derby. I go by dosage index first and then look at the sire and dam next. The discussion has been that so and so is bred for the derby distance and so and so is not. My point is that despite the fact that many or most of the entrants qualify on dosage, they really aren\'t bred for stamina, but for speed.

One of the criteria for accepting a horse on his dosage profile prior to say 1995 was that the horse must have points in his stamina wing. Thunder Gulch had 0. I\'m not sure about Monarchos or some others, but many horses today are below the 4.00 mark yet still have no points in the stamina wing which up until about 1995 translated into NO SHOT at winning the derby, even if his dosage was below 4.00.

Your point about Florida is a good one. Means Harlans Holiday has NO SHOT. I have other reasons to toss him, but your point seals my decision.

The climate in Florida during that meet is nothing like that of Kentucky, New York or California for that matter. Florida is very humid compared to those other states and high humidity often affects horses negatively.

Last point regarding Florida - some horses love it and can\'t pick up a hoof ANYWHERE else, just like I predicted about Hal\'s Hope after I picked him to win Gulf Hcp. (said he\'d be off the board in next start and he was.)

MO

[rail]

The Stamina Wing should include half the Classic Points. In which case Thunder Gulch had 4 points not zero.

If you are referring to Solid and Professional only, then yes he had zero then. But so did past Kentucky Derby winners
Affirmed (TCW), Sunday Silence (won 2/3 of Crown and 2nd in Belmont), Strike the Gold (2nd in Belmont) & Lil E. Tee.

Then Thunder Gulch won 2/3\'s of TC followed by Real Quiet, Charismatic and Fusaichi Pegasus.

Monarchos had a point in the Solid.

[MO]

In something like a 50 year sample, SS, TG, Lil E Tee and Affirmed were the exceptions and I was referring to Solid and Professional only.

Now you all know the story about Thunder Gulch, so I won\'t beat a dead horse.

The reason Affirmed kept beating Alydar was because Alydar refused to change leads. And we all know who wins the race in the breeding shed.

Sunday Silence, well I just feel Easy Goer was the better horse. He could not handle Churchill and none of his offspring do. If you watch the Derby closely, you\'ll see SS nearly put Northern Wolf OVER THE RAIL. Had it been any other race (and I am quoting a former NYRA steward), SS gets disqualified.
In Preakness not sure who got the better fig, but it was a great race. In Belmont, Easy Goer kicked SS\'s butt REAL BAD. (However, Phipps refused to let SS get in a workout over the Belmont surface which may have been an excuse for SS getting beat)
You\'ll also notice that Real Quiet and Silver Charm and I think Charasmatic did not train at Belmont for the Belmont. There\'s an unwritten rule there that if you don\'t train in NY, you\'ll not get the Triple Crown.You can look it up. Only Affirmed accomplished that trick without training in NY that spring, though he did train at Saratoga as a 2yo.

Lil E Tee never amounted to anything. Just a footnote that Pat Day finally won the Derby.

Strike the Gold was not the best horse in the Derby that year. Hansel was and proved it later on. Best Pal had a wide trip (2nd) in Derby and I think got a better fig than STG.
I always felt STG was counterfiet (I took great pleasure in beating him on a regular basis) but I agree with the fact he should have qualified on dosage before the race.

Long and short of it is that statistacally, you gotta have points in Solid and or Professional. But now with so many being bred for speed, that angle may be worn out.

MO

[fastspeed]

\"staying\"is a function of company.  came home would beat me at 10 furlongs, that wouldn\'t mean he stayed.  He won at 9f because he was so much classier than the rest.  Can that happen at 10f ? you\'ve got to doubt it unless he is truly great (and the rest are truly average).  It can happen but it\'s the kind of bet that would probably make you poor in the long run.

he reminds me of more than ready. MTR did not stay 9f, yet was a bobble away from winning the blue grass.  MTR did not stay 10f, yet was 4th in the derby.  if came home is better than MTR (and that is possible) that comparison is the best argument for backing came home for me.  for me he won\'t be in the first 2 - is he classy enough to hang on for a minor share ? maybe.

by the way MTR worked very well at CD before the derby.  I was suckered into backing him (even though I had distance doubts) and will not make the same mistake with came home.

[tread]

Mark, for someone who is so into dosage, how is it that you have picked the WORST possible dosage profile of any of the contenders as this year\'s winner?  Yeah, Came Home qualifies, but with a 4.00 and 1.0 CD.

The dosage results in recent years speak for themselves.  This may have been a useful tool years ago, and if you stretch a study back 20-30 years it may still look good statistically, but the trend is your friend.  I don\'t think it has meant a thing in the last 5 years.

Much more relevant stats are those which are 100% factual, and not the opinion of some person who decides which horses provide points in which categories.  Average winning distance that is a statistical and undebateable fact.  Secratariat splits his dosage between Classic and Intermediate.  How can that be proven?  Will you still call Thunder Gulch a fraud when 10 year from now Dr Steve adds some sire to the list that changes TGs dosage?  Will there EVER be any new Solid or Professional sires added to the list, given that speed is now bred so heavily?  This tool has served it\'s purpose and it\'s time to move on, in my opinion...

[MO]

You have made some good points, even if you are repeating what I already said.

Came Home\'s dosage is 4.00. Thats borderline, and I thought I made myself clear - that this crop stinks, but he\'s the fastest horse. Put him in a race with the \"great horses\" I have mentioned earlier and he has no shot. His Center of distribution is a perfect 1.00, so thats a good thing.

Thunder Gulch\'s dosage was 4.00 as well. Roman won\'t have to change it. And everyone here knows why I call him a fraud. It ain\'t because of dosage.

I am  into dosage \"as a rule\" only for the Derby and the Belmont. These are unique races. Came Home is a dual qualifier (see experimental hcp.)There are 2 others, Saarland and Johannesburg. The latter can\'t win off a 7f prep shipping overseas. The former did not look impressive to me in the Wood and judging by what I\'ve heard about his figures, he\'ll bounce to the moon. So I\'m stuck with Came Home, and its not really bad being stuck with the fastest horse.

Back at Saratoga I tried to beat him with the horse that scratched from the derby Trial. Then I thought that 8f and 9f were too far.
Wrong on all counts. This horse is for real.
My money will be on him, but I won\'t tap out and I won\'t be surprised if he gets beat, just dissappointed. If he wins, I won\'t gloat (unless you force me). If he loses, remember that I had the balls to take a stand, and that no handicapper can ever hope to make a big score if they can\'t muster that kind of confidence. (Though I was a lot more confident when I picked Alysheba and Sea Hero.)

In closing, I guess you agree with my assessment about Affirmed, Strike The Gold and all the others mentioned earlier. Its been a good discussion and I appreciate your patience in discussing it with me. Hopefully we can all learn from this. Peace.
MO