DEAD RAIL ALERT!!! @ GP 1/24

[jerry]

See Race 4

[Boscar Obarra]

Serling touting the rail as dead.

 Maybe. But does r4 really prove that? The winner was prob a better, faster horse, and the placer, didn\'t exactly chuck it hard. beaten less than a length, and was more in the two path most of the stretch.

 Jury still out imo.

 I had the track fair yest, rail no edge.


 Update 5th;  65-1 nearly wires with a rail trip, winner 2 path

[TreadHead]

I absolutely love it when people make bias conclusions based on the performance of bottom level maiden claimers.  Welcome to the pools, gentlemen.

[Boscar Obarra]

Bias can be claimed based on any class of runner. In fact, a case can be made that the cheaper races are more likely to be affected by bias.

PS  My point was that there was no bias , in case you missed it.

[Fairmount1]

Boscar,

Since you obviously were following Gulf today and you are an observer of doubles, etc., did you notice the 8 in the closing race for Maker was the only live ticket for the 5 of 5 Pick 5 pool scooping $88k?  The horse wasn\'t impossible to have as I had him on my ill fated pick 4.  But I considered playing him to win but stayed out of the finale.  His odds ended up at $6.20 to 1 as fourth choice in the win wagering.  Is this the kind of play you look for with your observations?  I didn\'t see if the pick 6 had any single tickets alive.  It ended up paying for 5 of 6 to multiple winners.  

For those of you that didn\'t see the last two races, Carlo Vaccarezza won the \"Little\" late double at Gulfstream Park.  The horses paid $79+ and $75+ beating the 8 in last stages of the race for the win denying someone the pick 5 scoop.  It was someone that used the Vaccarezza horse against an odds on $.70 horse (Johnny V aboard for Carlo) but didn\'t use Vaccarezza in the finale against MdnClmers.  I think a connection to the 8\'s barn was alive for this reason but curious others\' thoughts.

[Boscar Obarra]

Since you ask.

 8 was crushed. But they went heavy on the front end, and I don\'t think they had the double for very much (relatively) and hardly anything on the winning exacta. No way for me to know about tri/super.

 Neither CV winner took anything resembling \'insider\' money. Happens.

 Funny thing, I had just done some research on that rider, who was 1-64 into today. He\'s the brit, who had some \'issues\' (google it) 10 years ago and decided to try the US this year. The few rides I\'d seen from him this weekend showed he wasn\'t totally inept, just having a problem getting live mounts. When CV took off the named rider (Cruz) I thought it strange that he put this guy up.

[Fairmount1]

I didn\'t suspect any insider Carlo money of note.  Just the 8.  Thanks for the confirmation.  I\'m sure the potential winner is still in disbelief that Feargal (and Carlo\'s horse) beat him for the cash.....

[jerry]

They might not have had the double but it wasn\'t for lack of trying. The double combination with the 1 in the 10th went from $61 to $26 in the last tick. That\'s the only reason I had the 8 in the last.

[jerry]

The 8 was the hot money horse. They just hooked him up with the wrong horses in the doubles. 1/8 double was pounded to $26.

[jerry]

Watch the race if you haven\'t seen it. Winner was bet like a winner, had the rail while dueling with the eventual runner up, gave up that position while backing out of the duel briefly, swung out around that horse and ran him down while much the best.

[TreadHead]

I did watch it, along with the next 2 dirt races that didn\'t even remotely suggest there was a rail problem.

Boscar, yes I agree if there is an established rail bias based on evidence from more than one race of reasonably talented horses that should have otherwise ran well and you see an MCL coming up, that you can expect those MCLs to be even more impacted by it.

The reverse of that, using MCL results (of a single race) to predict a rail bias for more talented horses is a fools errand.

And yes, I get that you were suggesting there wasn\'t a bias, my comments were directed to the OP