Gulfstream, Rafael M. Hernandez

[Fairmount1]

On tomorrow\'s card at Gulfstream Park, there are 2 prominent angles connected to Fairmount Park you might be interested in looking at further.  

1.  Race 1:  J La Tache, Graham Motion/Paco Lopez, M/L, 5-1.  This one\'s dam was Palanka City and was owned by Fairmount Park owner Bill Stiritz during her racing days.  She was 11 for 23, favored in 15 of her starts, 1 win at Fairmount, 4th in the Test, she won a Grade 3 (Ms. Preakness), and was strictly a speedball sprinter.  J La Tache is now 1st time turf, 1st time at a route, and likely to get loose on the lead so you are putting your faith in Motion on this one but with the company she has kept in MSW\'s, I will play her along with Tapit Together (out of Forever Together). J La Tache has faced SIX (6) next out winners in her 4 races.  

2.  Below are the stats for Rafael Hernandez for the last 5 racing days at Gulfstream.  He has won at least one race each of those days.  Note that he is starting to get a wide variety of trainers giving him mounts.  Serling said he was over his head at Saratoga.  Well, maybe the fact Wesley Ward horses didn\'t fire all meet save a very, very few accounted for RM Hernandez\'s poor debut record in Saratoga Springs.  He is riding with confidence right now and has several live mounts tomorrow it appears on paper, only 1 of which will likely be favored.  Tomorrow he has mounts for Kobiskie, Ward, Jimmy Jerkens, Matz, Tarrant, etc.  I will be using him prominently in 2 or 3 races tomorrow expecting him to run 1st or 2nd in those races.  And I am hoping he continues to get solid mounts like he has recently that go off at inflated odds (Servis, Tomlinson horses were ones I was there to gamble on him).  No warranties on my notes or math due to scrivener\'s errors but I believe it is very accurate.

A few things of note on the stats.  He has lost a few close ones when he was in a fight late but when he is on horses expected to run fairly well, he has been right there.  He was only favored once in the 27 mounts.  

I didn\'t have the charts for 12/23 when I started this project tonight, (the previous racing day at Gulf to 12/26), but he didn\'t have any wins that day.  He did have a place and a show (not sure on the number of mounts on 12/23).  

Best of luck.
_______________________________________
     
Rafael Manual Hernandez
12/26 through 1/1 (5 racing days)

Record (Mounts, Wins, Place, Show)
(27-6-6-1), 22.2% winners, 48.1% ITM, $54 bet to win returned $153.00

Record, Horses at Odds Less than 20-1, 12/26 through 1/1
(19-5-6-1), 26.3% winners, 63.1% ITM, $38 bet to win returned $100.00

Record, Horses at Odds Less than 10-1, 12/26- through 1/1
(11-3-5-1), 27.27% winners, 81.81% ITM, $22 bet to win returned $40.80


Date, Race#, Horse, Trainer, Odds, Result

12/26, R1, Rakete, Broome, 73.90-1, 10th
12/26, R2, Thunder Calls, Farro, 14.50-1, 8th
12/26, R3, Uncle Muggs, Pompay, 3.10-1, 1st
12/26, R5, Casting Couch, Kobiskie, 5.90-1, 2nd
12/26, R8, Toughest \'Ombre, Albertrani, 14.00-1, 4th
12/26, R9, Roccia d\'Oro, Albertrani, 20.50-1, 5th
12/26, R10, Greengrassofyoming, Tomlinson, 7.80-1 1st

12/27, R3, No Fault, Arnold, 54.60-1, 9th
12/27, R5, School Yard, Morici, 17.60-1, 6th
12/27, R9, Nisharora, Rubley, 11.30-1, 1st
12/27, R10, Nitzevet, Plesa, 54.60-1, 12th

12/30, R5, Mr. Smith, Plesa, 13.60-1, 2nd
12/30, R6, White Cape, Matz, 16.30-1, 1st
12/30, R9, All About Yasom, Orseno 27.60-1, 6th

12/31, R3, Pisco Bliss, Gonzalez, 5.50-1, 9th
12/31, R5, Tonite Tonite, Lorito, 6.00-1, 4th
12/31, R6, Wayward Kitten, Ward, 3.20-1, 2nd
12/31, R7, Mollydooker, Vassilieva, 6.30-1, 3rd
12/31, R9, How\'s My Gold, Moya, 4.00-1, 2nd
12/31, R10, Imperial Jack, Baker, 25.50-1, 1st

1/1, R3, Don\'s Girl, Kobiskie, 2nd, 1.70-1* (fav), 2nd
1/1, R4, Crown the Kitten, Ward, 2nd, 3.00-1, 2nd
1/1, R5, El Kracken, Moya, 13.10-1, 5th (rode the winner in prev race to a 3rd place finish for Tharrenos.  Gafflione with the winning mount today at 3-1)
1/1, R7, Deterrent, Servis, 7.00-1, 1st
1/1, R8, Oasis at Midnight, Orseno, 17.80-1, 7th
1/1, R9, Colorado Daydream, Paulus, 25.60-1, 10th
1/1, R10, Zeezee Zoomzoom, Tarrant, 43.70-1, 9th

[Tavasco]

GP Race #1.

Before I looked at this card I was imagining one and possibly more quality 3 y/o\'s might show them selves Sat. It\'s also hard to read a write up by Fairmount and not be concerned for Missouri Flood victims.

J La Tache out of Palanka City (By Carson City) @ 5/1 illustrates to me the hefty respect out there for G. Motion. The last horse I counted on to take to the turf, instead showed me speed and dropped anchor when the stretch run started. Carson City raises turf route questions for me but I am curious about Fairmounts other choice that pricey, aren\'t they all, Tapit filly. She\'s 12/1 and at least moved up in the field like I expect a successful turf horse to do.

Hard to be very confident in these MSW races for quite a few reasons, yet they can be surprising and lucrative. The #4 Zo Zo Striking, who was sent off @ 7/1 1st out. Slammed into the gate and then cantered along in the rear for the race. A switch to turf and a lackluster work tab suggest this one won\'t be near the pacesetters but the dam Zoftig (Cozzene)  does say turf.

But Clement\'s Gioia Stella (which means?) a $1.5M purchase, I think I read that right get 9/2 on the morning line and she must be something. Chads and Ramsey\'s firsters are well disguised which is what makes races like this so damn puzzling to me.

Nice write-up on Hernandez and he\'s even in this picture but watch the post parade on his fractious mount?

and that is just some of the horses in the first race looking forward to the card and a great new season and year!