Hawthorne Derby

[Rick B.]

Borrowing the ROTW style for analysis of a neat little race on what should be crisp and beautiful Fall day in Chicago:

Wireless Future (8-1) fired big to get back to lifetime top after 4+ months off. Short rest is a concern but this one has early speed and the rail on what will be a firm and fast turf course; might forget to stop. Trainer switch from Amoss to C. Richard is not a concern. Live at a price.

Mission Drives (10-1) is a healthy horse that can run the same numbers over and again, with decent spacing...but hasn\'t improved one inch in months, and no reason to expect different now. Minors only.

Nun the Less (12-1) bounced miserably as the slight favorite in a stake at Canterbury, but returns to Chicago for home cooking under top notch Chicago trainer Chris Block. Has already run as fast as the fastest ones in here. Expecting huge effort from this contender and today\'s Live Longshot.

Lucky Lindy (15-1) has shown slight improvement with each race this year, and is a tricky read: how much juice is left in the lemon? Trainer Mark Frostad shows a solid Thoro-Pattern with 67% pairs or tops. Canadian horses have done well in Chicago grass stakes over the last ten years. Solid contender on best.

It\'s peculiar for Bill Mott to ship an obvious 3rd-stringer such as Net Gain (15-1). I keep checking back to see what I am not seeing in this horse. Can\'t find it. Toss.

Maker trainee Granny\'s Kitten (8-1) just got back to lifetime top and is a touch slow. ITM shot on best.

Syntax (8-1) is another puzzling shipper from Bill Mott that hasn\'t improved since his late winter 3YO debut at Gulfstream. Another toss...sure feels like I\'m asking for trouble throwing out both Mott trainees.

Three of Saham\'s (4-1) last 4 races are good enough to win this and he will be the post-time favorite, but definitely vulnerable here. Nonetheless he is a must use as there are no real knocks against him.

Nucifera (9-2) was pretty ordinary in lone U.S. try. Another tricky read that is hard to use, and hard to toss. The long gaps are NOT a good sign -- this one might have ouchie feet.

Belemor (30-1) is a maiden but is stakes-placed on Poly and just might relish today\'s added distance. Could clunk up for a piece; remember the words of Barry Meadow: \"...even Living Filth can stumble home for 3rd\".

One Go All Go (6-1) has a tight pattern after a long layoff. Has won both tries at age 3 -- is he another one of these \"just runs fast enough to win\" types? Bad post for his running style, though, and I don\'t think he sees the wood all day. Slightly nervous about throwing him out.

Chip Leader (20-1) is the \"X Factor\" horse here; if that last number is accurate, look out because trainer Louie Roussel often gets repeat efforts, and this one is lightly raced with the look of a late developer.

Flashy Jewel (30-1) is also eligible and if he gets in, is thought to only be a rabbit for stablemate Nun the Less. Non-contender.  

SUMMARY

[/u]

Hard to pin down a single win bet here so I\'ll just go with the longest of Wireless Future, Nun the Less, Lucky Lindy and Chip Leader for the win, then box those 4 in the exacta.

Then, key Saham 1st and 2nd in the trifecta with the above 4, and others in the 2nd and 3rd spots as needed (thank God for 50 cent tris). Don\'t forget Belemor!

[TGJB]

I advised them to scratch One Go and run at Keeneland BC weekend, hopefully they will. Gets killed because of the GII win under the allowance conditions here, Kee much better.

Tried to get Saham bought a couple of races back, after he paired.

[MonmouthGuy]

Well done Rick. You cashed the tri here and were one jump away from a pretty big score.

[Agastache]

Thanks for posting this as I totally whiffed on my Keeneland plays today. Failed to recognize that Sarah Sis had a 2 year old top that would be competitive in the Raven Run yesterday. My ignorance cost me a nice pick 4.

I ripped off your suggested plays and it made a bad day a bit more bearable.

[SoCalMan2]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Borrowing the ROTW style for analysis of a neat
> little race on what should be crisp and beautiful
> Fall day in Chicago:
>
> Wireless Future (8-1) fired big to get back to
> lifetime top after 4+ months off. Short rest is a
> concern but this one has early speed and the rail
> on what will be a firm and fast turf course; might
> forget to stop. Trainer switch from Amoss to C.
> Richard is not a concern. Live at a price.
>
> Mission Drives (10-1) is a healthy horse that can
> run the same numbers over and again, with decent
> spacing...but hasn\'t improved one inch in months,
> and no reason to expect different now. Minors
> only.
>
> Nun the Less (12-1) bounced miserably as the
> slight favorite in a stake at Canterbury, but
> returns to Chicago for home cooking under top
> notch Chicago trainer Chris Block. Has already run
> as fast as the fastest ones in here. Expecting
> huge effort from this contender and today\'s Live
> Longshot.
>
> Lucky Lindy (15-1) has shown slight improvement
> with each race this year, and is a tricky read:
> how much juice is left in the lemon? Trainer Mark
> Frostad shows a solid Thoro-Pattern with 67% pairs
> or tops. Canadian horses have done well in Chicago
> grass stakes over the last ten years. Solid
> contender on best.
>
> It\'s peculiar for Bill Mott to ship an obvious
> 3rd-stringer such as Net Gain (15-1). I keep
> checking back to see what I am not seeing in this
> horse. Can\'t find it. Toss.
>
> Maker trainee Granny\'s Kitten (8-1) just got back
> to lifetime top and is a touch slow. ITM shot on
> best.
>
> Syntax (8-1) is another puzzling shipper from Bill
> Mott that hasn\'t improved since his late winter
> 3YO debut at Gulfstream. Another toss...sure feels
> like I\'m asking for trouble throwing out both Mott
> trainees.
>
> Three of Saham\'s (4-1) last 4 races are good
> enough to win this and he will be the post-time
> favorite, but definitely vulnerable here.
> Nonetheless he is a must use as there are no real
> knocks against him.
>
> Nucifera (9-2) was pretty ordinary in lone U.S.
> try. Another tricky read that is hard to use, and
> hard to toss. The long gaps are NOT a good sign --
> this one might have ouchie feet.
>
> Belemor (30-1) is a maiden but is stakes-placed on
> Poly and just might relish today\'s added distance.
> Could clunk up for a piece; remember the words of
> Barry Meadow: \"...even Living Filth can stumble
> home for 3rd\".
>
> One Go All Go (6-1) has a tight pattern after a
> long layoff. Has won both tries at age 3 -- is he
> another one of these \"just runs fast enough to
> win\" types? Bad post for his running style,
> though, and I don\'t think he sees the wood all
> day. Slightly nervous about throwing him out.
>
> Chip Leader (20-1) is the \"X Factor\" horse here;
> if that last number is accurate, look out because
> trainer Louie Roussel often gets repeat efforts,
> and this one is lightly raced with the look of a
> late developer.
>
> Flashy Jewel (30-1) is also eligible and if he
> gets in, is thought to only be a rabbit for
> stablemate Nun the Less. Non-contender.  
>
>
>
> SUMMARY
>
> Hard to pin down a single win bet here so I\'ll
> just go with the longest of Wireless Future, Nun
> the Less, Lucky Lindy and Chip Leader for the win,
> then box those 4 in the exacta.
>
> Then, key Saham 1st and 2nd in the trifecta with
> the above 4, and others in the 2nd and 3rd spots
> as needed (thank God for 50 cent tris). Don\'t
> forget Belemor!


Looking at your astute analysis of the Hawthorne Derby as well as your call on Churchill invader Lady Fog Horn this past weekend, am curious what you think of the Indiana Bred 3 yo invader in the Commonwealth Turf against many of the same horses from the Hawthorne Derby.  Forecast is 90% chance of rain on the day of the race (but sunny and 60s in three days leading up to race).  Rainfall forecasted at 0.25 inch.

[SoCalMan2]

This race has a TG purchase in it I believe, plus some very interesting angles

[Rick B.]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> curious what you think of the Indiana Bred 3 yo
> invader in the Commonwealth Turf against many of
> the same horses from the Hawthorne Derby.

Wow, *another* live runner out of Indiana! That was
my first thought. This colt, Bucchero, pretty much
does what he is asked to do:

* Skipped usual MSW in 1st start, run in state stakes race instead: 2nd place by 1/2 length and took action.

* Shipped to PARX to break maiden. Romped and paid bupkus.

* Off 8 months (injured? dunno), 2nd at DEL, then got sawed off late at Spa by eventual race winner.

* Back to PARX for turf allowance where he only won by a length but was not seriously threatened once he made the top.

* Home to Indiana for a couple of stakes routes on dirt, a \"fell asleep at wire\" 2nd (or, the winner timed the final surge perfectly, take your pick),
followed by an easy win for $150K. Ho-hum.

If Bucchero can duplicate his most recent dirt numbers in a turf route, he would be a strong contender; only Saham is consistently faster,
and that one is stuck outside with \"bad trip\" written all over him.

***

SoCalMan, you found a live one here, one that might be a tremendous price due mainly to provincialism. Mind if I play along?

[SoCalMan2]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> ***
>
> SoCalMan, you found a live one here, one that
> might be a tremendous price due mainly to
> provincialism. Mind if I play along?

Not at all, just hope it proves out.  My only question is pace of this race.  Very hard to get a sense how the early part of this race will go and the consequences of the same.  Just hope Bridgmohan appreciates the rail (he is on the rail horse in the only other turf race on the card) and only cedes it if the others are genuinely going too fast or it is dead.  His horse appears to have the capacity to go fast early or to rate.

[Rick B.]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not at all, just hope it proves out.  My only
> question is pace of this race.  Very hard to get a
> sense how the early part of this race will go and
> the consequences of the same.  

From the TG Race Shapes lengths behind after first call for this race:

Bucchero: 0

Obsidian Splendor: +1

Bullards Alley: ~ +2.5

all others: way back

Note: Obsidian Splendor starts from post 13 and is coming off a giant wire to wire effort...I don\'t think he sees the rail all day.

[SoCalMan2]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Not at all, just hope it proves out.  My only
> > question is pace of this race.  Very hard to get
> a
> > sense how the early part of this race will go
> and
> > the consequences of the same.  
>
> From the TG Race Shapes lengths behind after first
> call for this race:
>
> Bucchero: 0
>
> Obsidian Splendor: +1
>
> Bullards Alley: ~ +2.5
>
> all others: way back
>
> Note: Obsidian Splendor starts from post 13 and is
> coming off a giant wire to wire effort...I don\'t
> think he sees the rail all day.


There are some horses who are slower in the race shapes but look like need the lead types (One Go All Go) or logical front end horses (Almasty coming out of a sprint against older horses).  I hope you are right about how the race shapes up.  Am curious if the 366 Tomlinson the horse is the owner of is reliable?

[Rick B.]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I hope you are right about how the race shapes up.

Extremely tricky at times, as I have had some of my
best horse sleuthing undone by a pinhead who didn\'t
bother to check and see what he had under him...

...and Shaun \"Hands of Stone\" Bridgmohan isn\'t my
favorite rider at the moment. Leave it at that.